kaxo1

kaxo1

Today marks the 13th year since the global monetary system began its collapse into what would be known as the Global Financial Crisis and leave the world in what I'd say has been a silent depression. Why we have seen such little (or no) economic recovery since then is because August 9th, 2007 wasn't just the start of a recession, it was a fundamental schism in the...

kaxo1

Speaks for itself, a pullback here would be expected, but a breakout would go parabolic to 3400 in my opinion

kaxo1

Make or break time for our friendly neighborhood stock market. Everything is at critical levels right now so keep an eye on everything. If there's a breakout over this level then there's a good chance that the S&P will fill the gap to 3400ish and/or rally to a doubletop or new highs. I'm very bearish and highly doubt this is going to last long, but if big money...

kaxo1

Not much to explain here. US credit is being paid down substantially, thus raising major Eurodollar liquidity concerns. Spain, who led the Eurozone in economic growth last year, just posted a 65% GDP contraction by US measure, which makes it even more obvious that money isn't circulating. This is just getting started, as some of these decade-long charts seem to be...

kaxo1

All it took D&D was the loss of source material and the realization that they were in way over their head to produce the abomination that was Ramsey Bolton's "10 good men" that wiped out the whole army of the greatest mind of military strategy in Westeros. Well, Ben Bernanke and Jerome Powell tag-teamed a similar abomination in the form of the US stock market....

kaxo1

Don't worry, I'm gonna go over parts of these charts individually in separate posts and explain what the heck is going. I'm running low on time today, but hopefully this overview gives you a good idea of my stance. The first Bretton Woods established the dollar as the GRC to allow for balance sheet expansion to finance a post-war global economy that was eager...

kaxo1

I'm going to be doing a series of posts using charts of many different global markets to explain and support this thesis of mine. I have lots of charts and topics ready to be covered, but I want to get this preface out there now, so expect several additions tomorrow and many more in the coming weeks and months as this begins to play out. I'll make this one quick...

kaxo1 Updated 

Alright. So pretty much every market in the world right now is flashing major warning signs to our dear old belligerent stock market, but these signals have started to scream very recently. The Japanese are heavily reliant on dollar funding, and as a result we see how intrinsically connected the Yen is to the US indexes. When the two are moving together things...

kaxo1 Updated 

The indexes are at a vital point on many time frames with horrible breadth and increasingly historically bad economic data. But even more troubling is how the Dow Utilities looks right now. I pointed this out months ago, but it's been leading the greater market by a day or so and has made the trend movements very clear while trading within a range the looks...

kaxo1 Updated 

I entered a long vol and short spy position earlier this afternoon when I saw this diamond forming as everything we've seen this past week or so has reminded me of the melt up we saw in early June. Anemic volume, lack of buying momentum, etc. etc. From here we'll have to wait and see if which SMA it finds support on, but it's extremely overextended right now, so...

kaxo1

Can't wait to see how this plays out. While the S&P melted up on nothing during the pre-covid rally, the Nasdaq actually had a lot of participation. This time though, both are falling upwards, especially the Nasdaq which looks like a dead man walkin. I legitimately wonder how long the main US indexes can be dragged upwards by the Asian markets,...

kaxo1

Is it different this time? Can the bond market actually just be wrong? JPow "flooded the world with dollars", right? There's no way that it's actually pricing in deflation when the Fed "printed" trillions of "money" (bank reserves) because doesn't that HAVE to mean inflation is coming?? Either the Fed just doesn't understand how the system works at all, or...

kaxo1 Updated 

Our economy isn't showing a V-shaped recovery at all. In fact, the employment and economic data is not-so-subtly hinting at deeper rooted issues within our system. If only the Fed, Central Banks, and media would quit dismissing the bond market activity and yield curves as just some bizarre side effect of the Fed "rate cuts" and instead realize that those in the...

kaxo1

I just wanted to point out how important the 20 and 50 day SMAs are. Trendlines and resistances/supports are just linear (easier) ways to visualize these. Look how the price action keeps it within a similar range of them. For a healthy market, it floats above and occasionally drops and bounces off of the 20dSMA when it gets to that overextended point that remains...

kaxo1

Same price levels, same line of resistance, very similar price action (especially bidding up in the last 10m), similar shape .... if anything, it's at least eerie, but maybe I'm looking too much into it

kaxo1

The stock market will continue to tell a different story (as it has for the past 12 years), and combined with the obnoxiously pathetic attempts by the Federal Reserve and foreign Central Banks, stocks will likely bleed out slowly until the shadow repo market explodes, while the rest of the world is pushed into a deep depression. Scary and sad, yes, but at this...

kaxo1

Many market strategists believe that the Dow Jones Utilities Avg. is the best representation of market health because of it's weight in oil, industrials, and consumer demand, and some even say that it actually leads the other indices. Either way, it clearly is not as healthy as the hyperinflated tech stocks right now, and the monthly close is teetering right on...

kaxo1

I may be entirely wrong here, but the MMs have been out for blood for weeks now. They’re a velociraptor hunting the retail prey, and it’s our job to not get psyched out and FOMO into a position right before they pull the rug. Look at the chart today, the cup and handle was triggered after an almost identical one trapped everyone yesterday. Genius really. There’s...