Housing : Are you ready for the rate of 4,5-4,75% ?Using this idea, the mortgage rate should be between 7% and 8%. Ready for this ?Longby Luncyan0
us bond yieldsus bond yields has given breakout. fed may hike rates further . one need to be cautious with positions. we may not know what is hide in future but currently is not looking good, we need to prey that this breakout turns to be a falls breakoutLongby Tradernawab112
US30Y interest rate hike prognosis over the long term.Due to the rising inflation, the Fed has stepped in to reign in inflation. Jerome Powell has stated numerous times he will be aggressive with rate hikes just like Paul Volcker was in the '80s. Powell and Volcker are of the same school of thought. "Inflation emerged as an economic and political challenge in the United States during the 1970s. The monetary policies of the Federal Reserve board, led by Volcker, were widely credited with curbing the rate of inflation and expectations that inflation would continue. US inflation, which peaked at 14.8 percent in March 1980, fell below 3 percent by 1983. The Federal Reserve board led by Volcker raised the federal funds rate, which had averaged 11.2% in 1979, to a peak of 20% in June 1981. The prime rate rose to 21.5% in 1981 as well, which helped lead to the 1980–1982 recession, in which the national unemployment rate rose to over 10%." - Wikipedia on Paul Volcker What does that mean for us? In essence, lower equity prices, temporary economic contraction and higher lending rates to reign in cheap capital. Looking at the 30 year US government Bond Yields (US30Y), I am expecting yields to continue to increase from current 3.2% --> 4.1% --> 4.8% --> 5.5% and finally 7.2%. If inflation continues higher, then rates will likely continue to rise over the next few years. The era of cheap lending is over. Trade safely. by DenisRisticFX2
US30 Wait For Breakout! Buy! Hello,Traders! US30 was trading in a downtrend In a falling parallel channel But now we are seeing a bullish breakout attempt Thus, IF the breakout happens We will see a further move up Towards the resistance above Buy! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! See other ideas below too!Longby TopTradingSignals3347
Trend Reversal in US 30 Years Bonds? Investment Opportunity?A longer term look at the US 30 Year Bonds reveals that the yields have broken to the upside of 2 standard deviation of the linear regression channel. In a way bonds have already executed the FED rate hikes. You can get around 3% yield on a US 30 year bond. Question is if the bond market will track lower increasing yield rates even further. Depending on your investment strategy this may be worth considering. I am still puzzled why not more money is not pouring into USD stablecoins as one get get e.g. 15% yield with UST on Nexo. That appears to be a no brainer, still there is some risk associated with the platform, but not too much more then with a bank. In any case US bonds are attractive assuming the FED will eventually be forced to pause rate hikes. Then a 3% yield with a potentially rising bond is a sweet deal. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! Longby CarpeMomentum334
US30Y Targeting Equality ObjectiveIn this update we review the recent price action in the US30Y Bond Yield and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objective to target0by Tickmill4
US30Y: Rising Yield as the expectation of Rising Interest Rate?U.S. Inflation has surged significantly to 8.5% in March 2022, It hits a new forty-year high. As the Inflation keeps increasing month over month, The Federal Reserve is committed to tackling inflation by Rising Interest Rate, potentially 0.50% in May 2022. The rising interest rate will cause bond prices to fall. Consequently, The Bond yield will be increased. Chart Perspective: US 30 Years Government Bond Yield (US30Y) has broken out of the falling wedge pattern. US30Y is also accompanied by a golden cross on the MACD indicator. We conclude from the macro and chart perspective, That is a potential bullish outlook for US 30 Years Treasury Yield. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the support/target area. *Disclaimer: The outlook is only used for Educational Purposes, The Creator doesn't responsible for any of your trade position or other financial decisions*Longby financialfreedomgoals101Updated 224
US 30Y GOV BONDS YIELDWILL IT BE THE FIRST TIME TO TOUCH THE MONTHLY 200MA AT 3.5%? While DXY continues it's rally towards new highs, 103 and beyond. by Mronejr1
US30Y Hello ladies and gentlemen, according to my chart for the 30-year US government bond yield, there is a high probability of a bullish trend in the next few days.by Hamzaelghandori2225
Crash Incoming 8?This time the US30Y-US10Y (thanks to the TradingView user 'jscheurichiv' to remind me this chart). Same principle applies here, in the last decades, several months after the inversion of the yield (blue line) a big crash occurred. Invest, but with extra risk management -'with an eye' in charts like these one, for example-, in the next weeks or months. by BrainRules449
Part 1) Don't Fight The Fed with 30 Year Interest Rate Target.There's an apparent "reverse head & shoulders pattern" on the Monthly 30 Year Yield Chart. The implication of the broken neckline is a reversal of the previous downtrend. Dow theory teaches us that the minimum upside target is the depth of the neckline to the peak of the "head." I see potential resistance at the downward resistance trendline and then again at the previous swing high. If the trend breaks back below the neckline then the whole pattern is suspect. If the reversal is legit then we can suggest the time frame to reach the target would be the width of the "head & shoulders" along the neckline. In this instance the chart is suggesting we get to the price target in about three years give or take. Thoughts?by Breakout_Charts6
US 30 YEARS-WEEKLY-UPSIDE BREAKOUT ! WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a LONG WHITE BULLISH CANDLE which broke up and close @ 2.5890 on a weekly basis above the former high @ 2.5160 reached a year ago in March 2021. RSI @ 70.85 is not converging therefore there is a potential BEARISH DIVERGENCE IN PROGRESS ! On the other hand, the LAGGING LINE is far away above the TS, KS and the weekly clouds too which is supportive for further development. Currently above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 2.4130 % of the 3.4650 - 0,71 downside move, Next Fibonacci extension (78.6%) is @ 2.8750 % former congestion seen in 2019, 2018, 2018 and earlier. DAILY (D1) Ongoing (yield) uptrend price action still alive with its first significant support level @ 2.50 (cluster of Tenkan-Sen and ongoing support trend line); below there is 2 levels to look at very carefully : S2 : @ 2.3910 (MBB) S3 : @ 2.3570 (KS) A BREAKOUT OF THE LATTER LEVEL WOULD PUT THE FOCUS TO THE DAILY CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA (2.25-2.07) On the upside, there is a potential double & triple top in progress, coupled with a potential RSI bearish divergence too. Therefore, ongoing price action and more important, next daily closing level will may be validate or invalidate the potential reversal previously mentioned. 4 HOURS (H4) DOUBLE & TRIPLE TOP IN PROGRESS !!! Indeed, recent rallies above the 2.64 % level triggered a potential double & triple top which is coupled also with a RSI bearish divergence... The H4 uptrend support line is still alive and in this H4 time frame the TENKAN-SEN @ 2.5720 ahead of the cluster of KIJUN-SEN and MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 2.55 should be seen as the first support area to look at very carefully in this H4 time frame. A failure to hold above 2.55 would put the focus on the H4 clouds support area (2.48-2.41) , 2.4240 being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last upside move starting @ 2.0690 towards the high so far @ 2.6440. Below the 50% Fib ret is @ 2.3560 which is also the Kijun-Sen on the 4 hours time frame. 1 HOUR (H1) Wonderful school study case shown on the hourly chart with a DOUBLE TOP in progress (second top higher than the first !) coupled with a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE. TRIGGER LEVEL @ 2.5650. - Target if broken 2.48 which corroborate the previous view expressed on H4 Have a nice trading day. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki by Ironman88483
30YR Rates approaching oversold if not already there.30YR rates approaching oversold, looking to short technical reversal sometime soon.Shortby Arete-HI0
Don't fight the FedHow many times have you heard "Don't Fight The Fed" Well, the Fed is throwing us a gigantic fat slow-ball pitch. It's up to us as traders to hit the ball. JPow said he's raising rates. JPow said he's going to stop inflation. JPow said he's going to be data dependent. Are you fighting the Fed? Short Bonds. Stay Short on Bonds. Don't FIGHT THE FED. Shortby Breakout_Charts17177
Hourly Rainbow of US Government Bond YieldWatching the US Government Bonds yield curve is an important indicator for the upcoming economic conditions. When the yield curve inverts, such that bonds marked for fewer years have higher yields, that usually means a worsening economic condition. According to Investopedia: www.investopedia.com "An inverted yield curve is a noteworthy and uncommon event because it suggests that the near-term is riskier than the long term." by kesor60
When Treasury Yields contract together a recession followsThe chart shows how Treasury Bond Yields behave over time and each time they are "bunching up" with very small spreads, that is the time when a recession in the economy appears.by kesor60
US30Y 2023 ForecastCup and handle pattern = Bullish signal + Fractal backbone support! Target: Upper Trendline. Upper top consolidation --> Room for Equity melt-up rally. ETA: H1 2023. Recession by Q1 '24 at latest.by ILuminosity2
US30Y: Weekly H&SMajor Pattern: weekly Head & Shoulders Anticipatory Pattern: Daily Pennant Entry 1 on 3 Feb, stop loss on same day low Entry 2 on 4 Feb, stop loss on same day low Both trailing stop on NecklineLongby dan68608Updated 0
30y US BondsThe real question is, What sort of human events will be occurring that will fall around the time these rates are sub 1%? Elliot waves will never break their natural guidelines but often have coinciding jolts on live market data - Human events only psychologically contribute to these visual happenings on a chart made by a immense collective of decisions. Given this count is close to correct, at the true end of this pattern we should expect some sort of % increase higher than where we are nowby williamdas1
Is the yield curve really flattening?One might not think so, what with rates across the board jumping over the past several sessions. Adventurous traders could send a canary down the coal mine by shorting the receding 30-year here with a tight stop. An adventurous spread would add the still-advancing 2-year long.Shortby SwingWaiter1
The start of a long train wreakSo in conclusion, with the merals issue, supply issue, housing issue, inflation issue, investors heads in the sand issue, tech issue, incompetent leaders (all of them) issue and FED issue. This chart being a fraction of a fraction of a percent from inversion in 10-7 and already inverted in 30-20 makes more sense then the random PPT rally an hour before close today. The trajectory in my honest opinion is downward for markets and the economy and inversions in the bond market. It appears the bonds are signaling a new black swan, this we will have to wait and see (reference .com, 08, 2014 and the pandemic for more) There will always be gains and plenty of ways of making money during this downturn, always is. Nothing goes straight up or down without the inverse being true too. I am calling for a missive recession, tho this is just my opinion. Let me know what you think? Can the FED save the day? Do you see a recession? I want to hear your thoughts below.by Joshuakm2
The start of a long trainNote: FEEVRWS is only meant to be a analysis and early warning system, and is in no way a substitute for your regular work. Please do your own due diligence and if needed, consult a trusted professional. Today we will be looking at economic correlations and why bonds are moving the way they are. As of right now the 10y and 7y are a quarter of a quarter of a quarter of a percent away from inverting and a inversion percent in the 30y to 20y is as much currently. 30y to 20y is already inverted. There are MANY reasons why and this is not so simple. Bonds are selling off across the board with only the 1mo remaining the same. Tho today seems to be about flat, the trend continues. Housing, rate hikes, savings, inflation, liquidity, fomo speculation and foriagn investments are all tied to this and as a result the analysis will continue with other charts produced today by Joshuakm0
Another monumental momentNote: FEEVRWS is only meant to be a analysis and early warning system, and is in no way a substitute for your regular work. Please do your own due diligence and if needed, consult a trusted professional. Before I get into this I urge everyone who sees this chart to back track to the .com bubble on this chart, then move up to 08, then check out pre lock downs. With that out of the way, lets get into the FEEVR Analysis! As mentioned above you should look at the historical data provided on this bonds chart. Today and over the weekend we saw the 30yr-20yr invert. This is bad for a number of reasons but mostly having to do with debt and inflation. as stated previously, the inversion marks the start of what can only be assumed as a flee from 'safe haven assets'. This is bad because bonds as a percent, tightening, has historically preluded some of the biggest economic and market wide black swans. Looking at the bond market it is repeating this trend and only seems to be starting which would make me assume through an educated guess that we are about 1 1/2 to 2yrs out from another major black swan, market altering event. Please, please, please be careful. We can time this and there is sure to be lots of money made during this time, just DONT be the last one to the exit. I am currently working on a analysis on the Comms sector of the S&P. That will be out tomorrow. Ic alle dit, telecommunications is rocking and internet is failing. I have identified manipulation in this sector on RRG and now I am just trying to nail it down on the charts here for you all to see. Happy monday everyone!by Joshuakm0