US10Y-US02Y yield curve may disinvert in 2Q 2024Not many folks are looking for this as everyone seems to be calling for bonds to rally but I think there is a pretty good chance we get a flat 2's-10's sometime during Q2 Historically not a great omen for stonks when the curve disinvertsLongby WVS_Stockscreen2
20 yr Bond Yield to 4.7% by March 22nd, 2024The 20 Yr Bond Yield will likely move to 4.7% by March 22nd, 2024 based on its' 12/2023 and 04/2020 Channels. Bought into TMV on 3/11/24 based on this reversal on Friday. Looks like this will be a 15% gain once TMV hits resistance next week. Longby grumpa06221
ALTCOINS- SELL strategy weekly chartSomeone requested this one, and yes, as all crypto currencies show amazing heights, all will correct in due time, and corrections are always severe as much as the upside showed. This one will return likely to the 2.65 area whilst repecting 2.41 GANN support. Shortby peterbokma2
US 10Y TREASURY: currently without doubtsDuring the previous week the market was pricing released job data in the US. Increasing unemployment rate boosted investors expectations that the Fed's rate cuts are round the corner. Also it has been confirmed through the Fed Chair Powell`s testimony to the Senate, with wording โat some pointโ during the course of this year. Although, initially, it was expected that the rate cut might occur in May, currently the odds are 80% that it might happen in June this year. Treasury yields were aligned accordingly. The 10Y US benchmark rate slipped from the level of 4.2% at the start of the week toward the 4.0% as of the weekend. Such a move was a clear sign that the market has no more doubts that the rate cuts are coming. Inflation rate for February as well as retail sales in the US are set for a release in a week ahead. Any surprises on this side might impact some volatility on the markets, however, without a significant move toward either side. The 10Y Treasuries will continue to test the 4.0% with a low probability that this level might be breached. On the opposite side, some moves toward 4.1% are more probable. by XBTFX15
US02Y/US10Y - Market tops happen when chart is going downHow long do we have before the next crash? How many months until we've reached the market top? Hopefully not yet! My estimate is a top in June 2024, when the FED starts cutting rates.by brian76833
Yield Inversion US10Y-US02Y vs SPXEvery time the yield curve has gone negative, a market crash follows eventually. The trick is knowing when that happens. Nobody knows. When the yield inversion starts rising again, that's a sign it's about to pop. Better start selling out of markets into USD. DXY will start rising again eventually. Looking at the charts, my guess is 3-6 months tops before we reach a market high in a mega melt-up. Markets will become very volatile! Sell on the way up! Put in sell orders at specific prices you'd be happy with profits. Then wait for your sell orders to trigger and for the money to come in! We are at the end of a multi-year bubble which is about to pop. Protect your capital! But not yet!Longby brian76832
us10ylooking at a possible bear flag giving the stock market that one more push before a possible rotation by awakensoul_3695
Bank of Japan Yield Curve Control--- The carry trade - an investment strategy that takes advantage of differences in borrowing costs between countries - has provided bumper returns this year as most central banks have hiked rates, causing yields to rise, but at different paces. "The world's favourite carry trade," according to Bank of America, involves investors borrowing Japanese yen where the central bank has pinned rates low, and converting them to Mexican peso to buy much higher-yielding bonds. One-year bond yields are about 0.1% in negative territory in Japan , but their Mexican counterparts yield around 11%. A hypothetical $50,000 invested in a short yen, long peso carry trade for the first six months of the year would have yielded a profit of $15,100, according to Refinitiv Eikon. --- As the Japanese Bonds start to escape BoJ's Yield Curve Control - this extremely leveraged carry trade is going to explode in everyone's face.Shortby kesor6Updated 3
Triple top, or triple top breakoutto be decided of course but after gold broke on through this one might be next stay alert for a triple top, or a triple top breakout by pnaik7323
Yield is ready - US Dollar is ready - nothing else is!Come at me with critisism. The markets will have a hard landing. Time is on my side.by LindXLawliet666
Bearish Yields Could Send USDollar LowerUS Yields have topped back in October 2023 with sharp leg down, which is from Elliott wave perspective first leg A of a deeper A-B-C decline that can send the price back to the former wave 4 area to 3.25% - 2.5%. At the same time, we can see USdollar Index - DXY also turning down due to a positive correlation with Yields, we just saw some divergence in 2023. Currently we can see some recovery for the USdollar, as Yields are in a corrective rally within wave B, but as soon as wave C shows up, USdollar can be back to bearish mode. If we respect technical analysis, Elliott wave theory and positive correlation in the markets, then Yields could send USdollar - DXY lower away from important trendline connected from the highs soon. Shortby ew-forecastUpdated 10
10 Year - 2 year yield curve inversionOnce it stop inverted you have like 4 weeks to exits. Longby ethmike5
back to support?Go long on equity 10Y yield heading lower will make equities go up. Inverse correlation. Use stoplosses please.Longby The_Gains2
US10Y Touched its 1D MA50. Time to rebound?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, which we gave a buy signal on last time (January 24, see chart below): Yesterday it touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line for the first time since the February 05 break-out. During the previous leg of the 1.5 year Channel Up, the 1D MA50 held all the way until the formation of the new Higher High. As a result, we are bullish as long as it closes the 1D candles above it, with our 5.000% Target intact. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE ๐, FOLLOW โ , SHARE ๐ and COMMENT โ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐Longby TradingShot2220
Pivotal Point for Rates. Lower Rates Can Mean Lower Equties. I know the idea of lower rates / lower equities sounds silly by classic theory but if you close social media and go through the historic events you'll see it's more common. When rates are rising we usually rally for at least 3-6 months and more commonly somewhere like a year. The classic sell signal at the top of big trends has been price selling off a bit while rates topped and the crash event has always come with a dropping of rates. And that makes this all very interesting. I've previously described how we're at a major inflection point for trend decision in SPX. We have a pending short signal forming in yields. Butterfly extension into the top and we're now into the critical fib supports levels. If we can not make a low on the 76 (Close to where we are) we might be due to see a sharp drop in rates. Ever since the dot-com bubble, falling rates after parabolic markets have been a really big red flag for trouble to come. This would also link in with the BTC trend failure thesis. At this point it's only rational to expect BTC to be risk correlated and under perform the indices in risk off situations. This has been the recurring theme since 2018. Shortby holeyprofit5
US 10Y TREASURY: it`s clear to the market Based on the moves from Treasury yields during the previous week, it seems that Fed's rate cuts are coming. This is what the market is saying, however, we still need this input from the Fed. At this moment, it is irrelevant whether it will be at March`s FOMC meeting or later within the course of this year, the important thing is that the market is now certain about it. Still, what we do not know at this moment is how many rate cuts will occur. The 10Y benchmark rates dropped down during the week from 4.31% down to 4.18%. This was a significant move toward the downside, which sent a signal over market certainty. In a week ahead it could be expected that the market will test the 4.20% level. A move toward the lower grounds could be questioned at this moment, taking into account fundamentals set for a release within a week ahead. There are non-farm payrolls for February and unemployment rate data, which could bring back some volatility on the market. There is also Fed Chair Powell testimony on March 6th, which the markets will watch very closely. However, based on current charts, there is a low probability that yields could go back to previous levels, they will rather oscillate around 4.20% levels. by XBTFX11
US03MInteresting how the market goes up and the 3-month yield goes down, is anyone afraid??? All short-term MAs are in downtrend...Shortby Manzanex6
US10Y rising wedge breakdownUS10Y broke out of the orange rising wedge downward. It bounced off of the teal upward trendline, retesting the rising wedge. Last week it also printed inverted hammer candle stick. Next support level would be 3.3%. Shortby HowardMarks46446
US 10Y TREASURY: rate cut on a long stick It seems that the market would have to wait longer than initially anticipated for the first rate cut. The FOMC meeting minutes revealed during the previous week showed that Fed officials are optimistic regarding the outcome of already taken monetary measures, however, they would like to be certain that the inflation is clearly on the road toward the targeted 2%, before they decide to make a move toward lower reference rates. The market reaction was further increase in Treasury yields, where the 10Y benchmark reached the highest weekly level at 4.34%. Yields are ending the week modestly lower, at the level of 4.25%. In the week ahead there is PCE data scheduled for a release. In case of any negative surprises in data, the Treasury yields might move to the higher grounds, at least till the level of 4.4%. Still, in case that there are no surprises, then there will be further relaxation in yields, at least till the 4.20% level. by XBTFX17
US10YUS10Y weekly parabolic trend crosses. As we know US10Y is one of the most important parameters for all investors. In this idea, - Shows parabolic trends in logaritmic scale. - Added date for parabolic trend crosses. This chart is published as an educational purpose and not a financial advice in any case. All responsibilty of useage this charts is yours. by SKYNETAITR2228
#SA10YGOVYIELDS looking to start a move back to top of range?The South African 10 year bond yield has found support off the intersection of the 200dma and the previous change of polarity point between 9.55%-9.65%. Momentum seems to be shifting up which could see us move back to the top of the range at around 11.16%. Longby MarcoOlevano2
SG10Y forewarns of a blowout top in the S&P500... The SG10Y had been previously established to be a reliable indicator of the US S&P500 index, and US markets in general. It has had a 100% read accuracy in forewarning of imminent volatility, particularly when the SG10Y breaks out of trendlines. So the end of the week saw Nvidia spark a rally in the S&P500, and closing at record highs for the week. Usually, I would be excited about this, but the SG10Y break out of the Finbonacci fan trendline, as well as the correlated bearish zone for S&P500 (red box) and MACD turning more bullish again... all these tells of a blow out top on the S&P500, which we must be wary about. Clear indicator that in the coming week or two, we should see a quick reversal on the S&P500. Check out the previous linked posts to see how reliable and accurate this has been since I started tracking and reporting. Stay safe!by Auguraltrader3