Bitcoin stages rebound but large speculators are not buying

Following a breakdown below $57,000, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rebounded last week in a broad market risk-on move. Currently, it trades near the $64,000 price tag, situated slightly above the 20-day SMA, which now acts as a critical support level; a failure to hold ground above this level will be concerning, while a success could foreshadow continuation higher. With that in regard, resistance at $67,241 and support at 60,760 are of the utmost focus.

Illustration 1.01

The image portrays the daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and two simple moving averages. The 20-day SMA acts as the critical support level, while the 50-day SMA acts as resistance. Thus far, Bitcoin has managed to close above the 20-day SMA for two consecutive days, which is quite positive. However, due to closes above this level occurring over the weekend, it is appropriate to wait for at least one more close above the 20-day SMA before committing to a bullish narrative.

Illustration 1.02

The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels on the daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD).

Bitcoin addresses
Interestingly, despite last week’s drop below $60,000, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC has not increased, potentially hinting at large speculators’ lack of appetite to buy Bitcoin at a discount. The same applies to the addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC.

Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Slightly bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Monthly time frame = Bullish

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

Comment:

Thus far, Bitcoin failed to successfully close above the 20-day SMA for more consecutive regular trading days. The risk to the downside persists.