Macro:
Economic momentum peaking globally, China (Germany main trading Partner) decelerating along with other Emerging Markets.
Central banks around the world and the ECB remains in normalization process (tightening conditions)
Political risks on the rise in Europe with Brexit and Italy new government.
Sentiment:
I think the market has not priced in the rise...
Macro:
Economic momentum seems to have peaked globally = USD Positive.
Gold has failed to appreciate above 4 years resistance line @ 1’350 on good news (higher inflation expectations, Geopolitical risks (Syria, Russia, North Korea), trade war)
Sentiment:
Market is position long Gold, and current market consensus is bullish gold on above good news (that failed...
Macro :
Entering the "Overheat" period of the business cycle (pick up in inflation)
Technicals :
We could be building a large multi-years reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.
Macro :
No recession risk around the world for now, or next year = USD negative.
We are entering the latest stage of the business cycle where the GDP gap closes causing the economy to bump up against supply constraints.
This causes inflation to rise = Commodities positive = NZD positive.
Sentiment :
Large traders/Speculators have built lot of short positions...
