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The precious metal faces one of its most prominent headwinds, rising real yields. As a non-yielding asset, Gold must compete with the risk-free return that U.S. Treasuries provide. Furthermore, the difference between Treasury rates and the inflation rate provides what is known as the Real Yield. According to the St. Louis Fed Economic Research, Real Yields...

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Yesterday, Fitch downgraded U.S. Credit from AAA to AA+. The last time U.S. credit was downgraded was by S&P on Friday August 5, 2011, after the close, from AAA to where it stands today at AA+. On Monday, E-mini S&P futures finished -7.2% and settled at 1111.25. In the next session, overnight, E-mini S&P futures traded to a low of 1077, but finished the day...

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The July monthly close in 10-year futures edged through rising trendline support, a level aligning with a 4.0% yield (highlighted with the yellow shaded ellipse). Is Treasury weakness through the end of July a precursor of continued selling and a blowout in yields? The CME's FedWatch Tool shows only a 20% probability the Federal Reserve hikes in September. Given...

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The Russell 2000 is in a breakout above 2000, creating a path of least resistance to 2033-2050. Anecdotally, this has been a hated bull market, and many managers are severely under-positioned and facing career risk. Will they play catch up to the S&Ps +20% and the NQ's +45% ytd by buying large-cap stocks? No! They will likely have to look to small caps for...

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Silver is a critical inflection point, can it breakout above this trend line resistance going back to its record high in 2011? Housing Starts for June just missed at -8.0% m/m. In May, Housing Starts surged by 21.7%, released on June 20th, and Silver was -7.34% that week. That was revised to only +15.7%. Its go time for Silver.

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Palladium futures are up against a downtrend line and the 21-dma. A decisive move out above $1300 on a weekly close should open the door to a test of $1360 at minimum.

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Big inflection point! Soybeans are the most expensive relative to Corn since December 2020, but they are also hitting trend line resistance.

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The Gold / Silver ratio is holding support at a trend line and the 50-day moving average. It must break this support to signal an improving risk appetite for precious metals.

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Platinum is responding to technicals and fundamentals. The recent pullback is holding constructively out above several converging support indicators. Fundamentally, Plantinum is finding a bid after Industrial Production topped expectations +0.6% MoM v +0.3% exp. The strongest component was Motor Vehicles and Parts +6.6% MoM. Relief from semiconductor supply chain...

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An awful slate of economic data from China and the U.S. has hammered Crude Oil to start the week. Price action failed at resistance, aligning with the 21-day moving average Thursday-Friday, encouraging heavier selling after the data. Continued action below 87.50-88.00 leaves the door open for a test big support at 82.80-83.60 gap and .618 retracement.

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Crude Oil (September) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 94.70, down 1.65 on Friday and up 0.13 on the week - Recession fears weighed on Crude Oil ahead of the weekend after poor Eurozone PMIs and given continued mass testing in China. - Also, a bearish EIA report and Libya production coming back online added negativity to the. Libya is now seen ramping to 1.2 mbpd...

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Platinum has been trending lower for more than four months, the March peak, and is finally showing signs of a potential bottom. Yesterday's whipsaw helped complete the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Upon doing that, it also back-tested the trend line from its June peak, holding it as support perfectly. The large range consolidation over...

06:53

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S&P, NQ, and equity indices chewed through resistance today. U.S. Dollar weakness is underpinning strength across risk assets. Crude is at an inflection point. Let's dive in.

05:43

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The S&P stuck its neck above last week's FOMC gap settlement and the SPY had a bullish engulfing daily candle, but all was surrendered ahead of the close. These are some of the indicator we are looking at to signal this pop in stocks can turn into a real rebound.

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A portion of our daily Morning Express E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4099.00, down 32.25 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,551.00, down 95.50 Fundamentals: U.S. equity benchmarks are so far doing a terrific job digesting gains. The S&P rallied 10.4% from low to high in six trading days. In our Midday Market Minute...

06:12

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Great groundwork in stock indices all week, terrific technical patterns developed to usher strength, and leadership from Tech. Let's take a look at the landscape ahead of Nonfarm Payroll.

04:59

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Crude Oil, Gasoline, and energy stocks are breaking out. These are the charts and trends we are watching most closely to confirm this breakout.

05:11

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Tech leads the S&P through a massive level of resistance. Where to next?