AdvancedPlays

AdvancedPlays

SOXX tapped a major trendline earlier and rejected a little so far. Semiconductors are a dangerous short right now, but if there's any place they're going to fail, I think it's here. Since it is right on the line it provides good risk to reward, tight stop above. We'll most likely need to see weakness in NQ and for sure NVDA for this to work.

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SMCI has been on a big run since AVGO announced their stock split. It has rallied back up to resist near $928. So far it has failed and I'd expect more downside, but this could definitely be a fakeout and go on to test the 1022 area. Depends on NQ and other semis along with VX.

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VX is finally showing some strength and has been maintaining a rally it started last week. Has a nice bull flag here and is also above a falling wedge it just broke out of. Will be looking to see if this can continue higher and put more pressure on SPY and QQQ.

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The Mag 7 has been strong recently, pretty much carrying the entire market by itself. This will be important to watch, as long as the Mag 7 remains strong and in an uptrend, it's hard to argue against bulls. It had an ascending wedge which I deemed to be bearish, but now that it has broken to the upside, I have to be bullish until it falls back into the wedge. I'd...

AdvancedPlays

SPY reached the top end of its ascending wedge it has been forming since October of 2023. QQQ is also in a similar spot, I'd expect a failure here. I've been expecting failures, but resistances keep getting broken, so I'll be cautiously optimistic about a failure here. VX is still showing strength, which I find odd. It may be telling of what's to come, but the...

AdvancedPlays

I've posted a few ideas on VX, mostly focusing on a falling wedge from the top in April, but there's another wedge on a smaller time frame shown here. VX has broken above both the longer term and shorter term wedges. I would say this is a pretty large divergence, because ES and NQ are making new all time highs every day, but VX is showing strength. VX has failed...

07:53

AdvancedPlays

A recap of today's action, another strong day for bulls. New all time highs for the S&P and Nasdaq, with semis like AVGO leading the way. VX remained fairly strong today in my opinion, still watching it closely to see if it can get back over 14.35 or if it's time for more decay.

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BTC had a nice flush below the ascending wedge after it broke earlier. It's having a recovery rally now, but I'd expect this to fail if it moves all the way up to retest the wedge. There's also some horizontal resistance around there as well for it to contend with. If it's able to get past all that, I think the short term trend may be switching back to up.

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The Dow has been relatively weak lately, but had a strong bounce off of support and formed an inverse head and shoulders, so I'd expect upside until that neckline is breached. First target would be the resistance above where it has already failed twice. If it's able to reclaim, I'd expect more upside and vice versa.

18:21

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I forgot to mention the economic calendar and earnings calendar in the video. Earnings are really light this week, but there's a decent amount of economic data coming out. We also have a short week with Wednesday being a holiday. Don't forget that, if you're buying options early in the week, theta decay will be worse than usual because the market is closed on...

AdvancedPlays

This is a shorter term chart for BTC with an ascending wedge it is trying to break below now. First target would be the previous low near FWB:65K , followed by the trendline below. It's currently sitting right under some longer term resistance, so that's another confirmation. If it breaks to the upside here and reclaims ~$67.3k, I'd see that as fairly bullish.

07:17

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Bad week for the challenge account this week. I tried shorting MSFT and SMCI before CPI and got wrecked in short. The bearish bias did not pay off this week, especially when it came to tech and semis. I should have picked something weaker and not held through CPI, but I can't change it now.

13:46

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The market crash did not start this week unfortunately for me and my puts, but I still have confidence in the setup. I believe we're seeing a large divergence between NQ, ES and the rest of the market, which will eventually correct, it's just hard to say when. I know many are bullish due to the election year and other things, but I remain firm in my stance that we...

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ES has a nice looking bear flag on the 15m and VX is strong today all of a sudden. I'd expect this to break to the downside before close,.but not sure how far it can go..Depends on how high VX goes I suppose. For now just watching previous highs and lows for potential support if it does drop.

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We are finally seeing the strength in have been expecting from VX today. This is a pretty large divergence between VX and NQ so I'd expect more downside today unless.VX fails as usual. I would not want to be a bull if this thing gets moving after breaking a downtrend that started in April.

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Here's another ascending wedge here on NQ. It closed above today for the first time, so looking fairly bullish for now, but it's far from being a confirmed breakout. I'll be watching this wedge and the one on ES moving forward. ES has moved quite a bit further above its wedge than NQ, but neither have sustained the breakout just yet. Here's some paths I'd expect...

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QQQ rejected perfectly on a retest of its previous ascending channel from the rally over the last year. It has finally gone back for that retest after breaking well below in April. It's not a big rejection yet, but this is something bears can feel good about. I'm still confident in my prediction and today has reaffirmed that confidence honestly, but I still...

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Silver is struggling along with BTC and other inflation assets at the moment as DXY climbs. Silver recently had a huge squeeze and then immediate drop. I see this as quite bearish, but it hasn't moved much since. Currently forming a bear flag right above support which I expect to break.