The general direction of gold remains bullish, and the short-ter

CPI and “horror data” spark optimism! Expectations for the Federal Reserve's first cut in September surged, and gold hit a new high in the past month!



The U.S. non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in April was 3.4%, down from 3.5% in the previous month. The core CPI monthly rate in April dropped to 0.3% as expected, the lowest since December last year. In addition, U.S. retail sales in April were flat month-on-month, well below market expectations of 0.4%, and traders strengthened their bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September and December. The interest rate futures market is pricing in a 52 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, an increase of about 10 basis points from Tuesday's bet, and believes the first cut will be in September.



Hamas said it was Israel's amendments to the mediators' ceasefire proposal that led to the deadlock in the negotiations. Israeli Defense Minister Galante issued a video speech on the 15th, calling on Prime Minister Netanyahu to make a decision and declare that Israel will not exercise "civilian control" of the Gaza Strip, nor will it establish "military rule."



The Houthis said on Wednesday they had attacked a U.S. warship and the USS Destiny in the Red Sea, saying it was a show of solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Houthi armed spokesman Yahya Sarria said that they also used naval missiles to target a US destroyer named "Mesoun" in the Red Sea. The Houthi armed forces attacked the "Destiny" because of this ship. On April 20, it was sailing to the port of Eilat, Israel. Sarria did not specify the date on which the two ships were attacked.



The news worth paying attention to this trading day is: In the evening, the United States will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week to May 11. The market expects it to record 220,000 people, a decrease from the previous value of 231,000; In addition, the United States will also announce the annualized total of new housing starts in April, the total number of building permits in April, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in May, and the monthly rate of the import price index in April. At the same time, Richmond Fed President Barkin will be interviewed by CNBC, and Cleveland Fed President Mester and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will also speak on the economic outlook. Pay attention to the impact of the news on prices and the monetary policy guidance of Federal Reserve officials.



At the end of last week, we gave the expectation that the adjustment period of spot gold is approaching, and we planned to make a bottom-hunting layout in the next week. As the market opened last week and stabilized after hitting 2292, we began to make a bottom-buying plan. During the session, we arranged long-term swing orders twice at 2305 and 2315. With the break of the consolidation range from 2320 to 2304, the bulls officially returned, with continuous long positions. After a trading day's rise, it has now risen above 2390, indicating a substantial profit for the long-term layout.



Of course, the entire rise is accompanied by repeated changes of hands between long and short, which is also a common manifestation during the trend turning stage. This form is not very friendly to the short-term layout. On the last trading day, our short-term 2360 long orders also shot up to 2378 and left the market with profits. The US dollar participated in the second time to avoid the risk of a washout, but for the long-term swing, there is no Any impact, as long as our general direction is correct, we can wait for the profits to be further amplified!



In the short term, it is not difficult to find by referring to the patterns of the previous two trading days that every Asian session is a time point for correction. The Asian session is usually mainly volatile. At the same time, the night low of the previous trading day is used as support, and there will not be a large amplitude. , and the European market is often the starting point of the rise. After the opening of the European market, it fluctuated and gradually rose. After the European market rose to a certain extent, the US market continued to rise. There was a retracement action during the session. After the retracement, it went up further and hit a new high. It has reached the high point of a single trading day, so we will start based on this rhythm this trading day, treat it as volatile in the morning, and rely on 2384 as support to see the upside!



1. International golden thinking layout, for reference only:



Short term: Pay attention to the 2384 support in the Asian market, rely on the 2384 support to continue to follow the long direction directly, and look at 2400, 2415/17 position


Long-term: You can choose to enter the market according to the callback position, and continue to look at the 2430 and 2500 target levels.

Trade active:

Gold rebounded within my expectations

Trade active:

Next we need to wait

Trade active:

Increase position

Trade active:

Will continue to rise after the pullback

Trade active:

Gold has adjusted

Trade active:

Gold is in an upward channel, and the correction continues to increase