theapearmy

theapearmy

Tech has been on a tear, but expecting them to top out soon. $AAPL is certainly overextended but even though dated shorts are OK, there's still a possibility to hit high $160s unless we see bearish signs.

theapearmy

NVDA triggered an inverse H&S leading to a strong bull trend. We either start topping out or reach a high of $289 before a correction. Volume is low for today. Dated shorts okay but bearish structure/sign preferred for ideal entry. Note this also impacts the $QQQ as a top holding.

theapearmy

SPY faced a major rejection at around $401.50, suggesting it will struggle to break through again. If bulls do push past, I see significant resistance at $404-$407.50. However, it's unlikely we'll reach there soon. I expect the rally to lose momentum and break through to $380s. I recognize potential upside but expect more downside to come. Side Note- I'll be...

theapearmy

$AMD is looking like it's primed for a drop as it enters the supply zone.

theapearmy

My previous idea was for $SPY to seek a channel support break to $387 before potential retracement back into channel. Today $DXY failed to break $102 level, and may retest immediate support below before kicking off a new upwards move, causing another leg down on SPY. I am long despite possible near-term retracement.

theapearmy

$SPY seeks channel support break to $387 before potential retracement back into channel. I'm looking for lower price discovery here overall. See other subsequent ideas that would impact $SPY.

theapearmy

If the US dollar index shows strength, $SPY may break the lower TL. Right now, DXY seems to be just going sideways in this formation but I am long overall.

theapearmy

$NVDA looks bullish & broke the upward trend. Noting a similar pattern to Jan. Retest of gray trend line possible in near-term but shorts should buy time for Jun+ for lower risk. I'm focused on shorting $SPY, but will enter NVDA lightly for Jun/Sep $250/260P for risk to reward.

theapearmy

Strong selling pressure took $AAPL back into the zone. The initial bullish confirmation for a higher price target is negated and I'm watching how it plays out as it'll impact $SPY. I have a LT bearish view on $AAPL, but can see it bounce off demand.

theapearmy

$SPY was a rollercoaster ride today: 1. Creeped up to the top of the flag 2. Pivoted and dropped with equities selling off 3. Broke through the earlier gap Staying cautious amidst all this volatility, but looking for this trend to continue tomorrow with $VIX curling up from its bounce.

theapearmy

In my previous idea, I was long on $SPY's expected move up. Tomorrow, we may break the top of the bear flag based on today's PA. Big picture tell us we may see a run into ~$400+ for a nice short setup. $VIX - This is the cool off we needed for another sell-off to happen. Let's see what happens #FOMC

theapearmy

If we break through this most recent TL on $DXY, we'll have another point of retest for a bounce especially with a potential inverse H&S at play here. I fully expect $DXY to re-enter the supply zone which aligns with my view that another leg down is approaching for $SPY.

theapearmy

In my previous post, I outlined where $SPY rejected off the bear flag resistance. You'll see that those two times correlate with the two times $VIX tested pennant support. With the third VIX retest, we may see $SPY near my gray TL of ~$400 (see related idea linked). I'm still expecting another leg down, and will take a short position if I see optimal R:R (I'll...

theapearmy

I plan to WIN on this upcoming trade with optimal risk-to-reward: I pointed out yesterday that we'll see slow upward movement on $SPY. I'm still expecting another leg down, and will take a short position if I see optimal R:R (I'll update). In my subsequent post, you'll see that the two times $VIX tested pennant support, $SPY rejected off the bear flag resistance...

theapearmy

$AAPL faced 4 rejections at ~$156.48 which is acting as strong resistance. Note as the largest holding in $SPY, AAPL has a significant impact on the overall market direction. I anticipate further downside after this latest rejection and see $160+ as low probability.

theapearmy

When #Bearish meets #Bullish Looking for a run up or upwards chop based on $CS bailout and liquidity injection. VIX needs to close above golden TL for further downside, but may need to cool off. I'm watching $SPY and $VIX for ideal setups to initiate a short. No guarantees on the outlook, but I'm cautious and expecting temporarily long movement.

theapearmy

$UAL stock dropped due to Q1 cost and downtime headwinds, but airlines expect strong demand and Q2 profitability. I'm opening 1/3 call position, adding 2 more times if weakness continues: Strike: $45. Exp: 6/16/23 or later Cost: $3.60 per contract The cost per contract could be lower based on market movements tomorrow. I plan to swing my first 1/3 $UAL call...

theapearmy

Crazy how the PA accurately lines up with my previous TA's. You can see $SPY retesting the TL resistance so I expect some short-term bullishness, and ideally it'll chop upwards as $VIX cools down too. Remember things can shift and there is LARGER downside potential.