monkia

monkia

Following this plan back from Feb very nicely :-)

monkia

RSI14 week ... 55 retrace marks the buy

monkia Updated 

I'll be using the following five signals/patterns to decide entry points and will likely look accumulate over three separate buy ins. The exact points will become apparent as time unfolds, my aim would be to buy in where as many of these signals overlap. 1) RSI on daily and weekly. Daily target around 30 or lower. Weekly to about 50. 2) Fib levels 0.5 and...

monkia Updated 

Some time ago when BTC was at $8k, I charted a path to $3k, you can see it here . This worked out almost exactly as planned, albeit on a longer timescale and a slightly truncated wave 5. We are now most likely either entering a new wave up, which is likely to way exceed the $20k peak or we are performing a pull back before another impulse down. Either way,...

monkia Updated 

I have provided detailed analysis of potential scenarios under this bullish post . My inclination is BTC is still bearish overall, however, in the short term I am trading bullish with small positions.

monkia Updated 

If you have been following my earlier posts part 1, part 2 and part 3 , you will see that I have been watching the bear and bull scenarios since 11k. I have been trading the bear scenario since 11k, although I missed some entries because of the lack of any substantial retraces and I got stopped out on the last short entry at 7.5k yesterday. I have held the view...

monkia Updated 

@goldbug1 has written a really entertaining post today (see link below). His posts are good but are almost always mega bull on BTCUSD and so I like to read his posts to get a sense for how the bulls are interpreting the market action. I thought it would be fun to write an alternative 'count' on his recent post. Last year I visited a lake and was surprised with...

monkia Updated 

If you have been following my earlier posts part 1 and part 2 , you will see BTC has performed pretty much as expected since my initial post almost a month ago (the exact chart is shown above). I see two potential paths, the 3k or less (posted above) and the 20k or more (posted below), however I am biased to the 3k scenario and trading against that until at...

monkia Updated 

If you have been following my earlier post ( The Elliot Wave road to $3k or $20k+ ), you will see BTC has performed as expected. I was able to short on the way down to 7.3k and I am now in cash. BTC has completed 5 waves down from 11.7 to 7.3k, with an extended wave 1. Bearish view: This was wave 1 of the final wave 5 down from the top. Bullish view: This...

monkia

Will history repeat itself?

monkia Updated 

I see two likely scenarios ahead, one to the moon and one to oblivion, with a third less likely being a period of sideways price movement at current levels. 3k or less (posted above) BTC has completed 3 Primary Waves down to $6k, with Primary Wave 2 being a bear trap at $17k. The euphoria since the bounce at $6k was the Primary Wave 4 retrace, completed as a...

monkia Updated 

If you review my previous post ( BTC - $8.2k for a bottom ), you would have seen I was looking for an 5-3-5 (ABC) structure within this wave down. This could still materialise and take us to 6k and below. However, in the short term I think we will complete the initial 5 waves down to around 7.5k (with a long wick to 7k a possibility) and I will then reassess the...

monkia Updated 

After exiting on the break of the Leading Diagonal, I am long dollars in my trading pot but still have about 35% tied up in coins in my core pot. I have been reviewing when to buy back in and whether to sell down any of my core pot. Before we get to that, let's review where we are. Past price action A Leading Diagonal Wave 5 was completed up from Wave 4...

monkia Updated 

I previously discussed in the post ( The Big Diagonal. 4 Ways from here..... ) that the breaking of the breach of diagonal triggered me to sell all trading coins. I am now building a plan for how and when I buy back in. There are several possible wave counts that could now be in play. The two I have shown on the chart are: - Grey : Completed wave Primary Wave...

monkia Updated 

Textbook! Started at the top with a Ending Diagonal. Finishing at the bottom with an Ending Diagonal First wave of correction ending soon at 0.5 - 0.618 correction. Could be up for a new 5 wave impulse or an X for an XYZ combination further down

monkia Updated 

Price action over the last few days has helped solidify and reduce the number of permutations on the wave count and has also highlighted short term risks. The reason has been the appearance of a diagonal within the current price structure starting 26 Feb. A diagonal has a few characteristics: - Wave 1 longer than 3 which is longer than 5 - Wave 4 over laps 1 -...

monkia Updated 

If you follow me you'll know I have a core fund of coins that I rarely change, whilst I use my trading pot to buy in and out of USD and coins frequently. My strategy with this trading pot is to invest in those coins that are out performing BTC. I look for medium trends that are likely to last for 1 month or more. My trading pot is currently invested in BTC...

monkia Updated 

There will be differing opinions on the wave count to where we are today. I'm comfortable trading on the conviction that we a completed Primary 5 (V) wave impulse up to 11.8k on the 21 Feb, have gone through a Primary WXY consolidation period down to 9.3k on 26 Jan and are now in a new, albeit relatively small, Minor 5 wave impulse up which could be the start of...