jackrabbitrage

jackrabbitrage

BTC showed a significant correction after its ATH and has been moving sideways since then, showing no immediate signs of recovery. The wave pattern exhibits a typical correction phase, resembling a double—or triple-top pattern or a descending channel. In Elliott Wave counting, complex corrections are not the first choice. One should always look for simpler...

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Building on the insights from my previous analysis , the Harmonic pattern 5-0 has emerged on the BTC chart on the 1H timeframe. This pattern is a relatively uncommon find, yet it's a powerful indicator of a potential trend reversal. With the pattern's completion, BTC appears poised to fill the gap indicated by the lower wick of a candle on the left side of the...

jackrabbitrage

BTC is experiencing a retracement after its recent bullish breakout. The battle at the strong support level of approximately 69k has shifted to the 65k-67.5k band. So, what's the next stop (possibly terminal) for this pullback? I anticipate BTC might revisit the mid-50k range, with a high chance of briefly dipping into the lower 50ks. This prediction stems from...

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Some updates to my previous idea . The key level, marked by the yellow rectangle, has been breached, but the chart also shows significant resistance on the diagonal axes. Obviously, breaking above here means strong bullishness with I-H&S confirmation (the uppermost red box would be the next target then).

jackrabbitrage Updated 

Channels and trendlines suggest that the recent upside might be merely a bearish retest. If the resistance is broken up, the next stop will be 45.5k-46k.

jackrabbitrage Updated 

Bitcoin has finally achieved ETF listing. This should be considered a historic turning point. However, the market's response has been lackluster. What is happening? Technically, we have descended through eight gray channels and retraced back up four. Although whether this indicates a key level for trend reversal is not yet clear, the harmonic pattern...

jackrabbitrage

Whether it marks a local top or the end of a 1-year-long uptrend, there's a growing sentiment that Bitcoin is due for a reversal soon. I've attempted to use channels, harmonic patterns, and Elliott Wave theory in this analysis. Just to let you know, I haven't ruled out the possibility of BTC setting new lows, which means that this rise could be a corrective wave...

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I'm still pursuing the overall bearish scenario , but I also think it could see a short-term bullish case at the same time. If a red pennant forms, we would see a rebound to 26.7k-27.2k, followed by a steep decline as wave 5 of the impulse continues. Invalidation on breaking the lower red edge again.

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A bearish dragon pattern is detected that could, in this case, develop into a bullish anti-butterfly. The theoretically expected target is Fib .786 (approx. 22.9k), but the trendline would interfere with this process. So the modified immediate target is Fib. 65 (approx. 23.9k). However, if BTC makes such a new low on the daily timeframe, Elliott-wise 5 wave...

jackrabbitrage

My previous idea was invalidated. So an update. BTC might see ABC correction at least to the sub-27k level if its 4-hr chart respects symmetry.

jackrabbitrage

I still prefer the bearish scenario, the WXY path as the global wave 4. What would you see?

jackrabbitrage

As nerely a perma-bear, I post this that could be merely a copium. Just a memo. If it seems this is valid, I will elaborate on it later.

jackrabbitrage Updated 

A rough sketch of two predicted bearish paths. We could see five pivots as one wave (of course, the breakout of the previous high would invalidate this assumption). If it's WXYXZ- black. If it's a less-than-ideal impulse wave, 12345. This is derived from potential S&R that Gann Square, wave analysis, and the pitchfork can assume.

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As BTC's price gradually declines, more and more analysts identify those right-down parallel channels. Because a parallel channel allows for an interpretation as a complex corrective wave in the language of Elliott wave theory, we are inclined to read this as WXY or WXYXZ. True, patterns like those provide more precise explanations compared to their absence....

jackrabbitrage Updated 

This is an update for one of my previous ideas . I've posted several Gann-Square-based analyses for the BTC market, but I feel this one could be the best of those. If BTC marks a new low at least on the daily timeframe, which I feel is likely, my Gann Square should underline 24.25k and 19k as primary, and Gann Fan does 23.4k and 22.1 as secondary. But, most...

jackrabbitrage

I post the geometry—no precise prediction. Recently I've thought that if the perma-bulls go short on measuring sticks, someone must help them handle the long-term thing. But this could also apply to perma-bears- what would you see?

jackrabbitrage

BTC tried the Gann Square's arc and stagnated there for a while - the chart is developing precisely as we predicted . After the black swan summons the dragon, a cypher (.786) or a shark (.886) pattern is expected next. Usually, the chart rebounds approximately between 0.5 and 0.618, even when the consecutive pattern formation isn't inhibited. However, we...

jackrabbitrage Updated 

BTC has been rejected at the apparent resistance of the 25200 zone. Gann Square, as applied, also implies that the buy-side liquidity above is hard to reach. Moreover, a harmonic black swan pattern (black) has formed, which would trigger another potential bearish harmonic pattern - a dragon (red). The bearish dragon's target would be 0.618 (20104) -0.786...