Recently we had a big flash bear trap and then a rapid recovery. These have happened in a lot of bull setups in SPX but it's also textbook for bearish Elliot waves (ABC). The bearish EW signal would fill soon. If it breaks then I think we're likely to see continued upside momentum. Plans to short a little higher and then if my stops hit buy a retest of the...
Spiking out the low of a parabolic rally is a very common occurrence in this type of pattern. It's a big panic point when all gains have been lost even if in very early to the rally. Often we see ultimate lows in these areas (Commonly off slow ranges) and even with things going much lower we see aggressive bounces. Here's an example. This is the same concept...
Here's a previous forecast on ARKK forecasting a possible low in this area. Spiking out the low of a parabolic rally is a very common occurrence in this type of pattern. It's a big panic point when all gains have been lost even if in very early to the rally. Often we see ultimate lows in these areas (Commonly off slow ranges) and even with things going much...
As part of my ongoing campaign to accumulate beaten down stocks on big support levels in case there's a new bull leg due to start, buying FB and will also add if it goes a bit lower. If we hold the 76 fib we can see a bull move.
I've left this chart marked up the same as it was on the last posting of AMC, which was quite a while ago. The market rallied a little higher but met strong resistance in the area forecast as the place to look out for bears. It looks like we might be entering into the break now. If we are, we might see the Elliot down legs develop.
As a general rule, parabolic trends will tend to correct sharply, get back to the mean, spike out the mean/previous low and then return to the mean where either a new uptrend starts or it meanders along sideways for a while. A return to the mean in this case would be a massive percentage gain.
It seems crazy to think it's possible SPX could be near the end of a giant uptrend and start of a big reversal. It seems crazy today but if we took a hypothetical scenario where it did happen and in 20 years time you have to explain what happened to kids, do you think you'd be able to? If the SPX uptrend made a major turn, explaining how a bubble had formed and...
There are many people who think BTC not breaking under 10,000 again is a sure bet. Based on all the available info we have on how BTC performs while indices are weaker, it would seem to be highly likely if SPX traded over 40% off the high we'd see BTC under 10K. Based on all the available info a bet BTC will go up is a bet stocks won't significantly weaken....
Here were the swings of the VIX in 2007 heading into the crash. The low was made in Jan of 2007 and the first rally in the VIX went to around 37. It then pulled all the way back to 15. Then it went to 80 which was a 220 extension of the pullback. We currently have a VIX rally off the low to around the same level and have pulled back and are hovering...
And in the style of a mega bubble, I suspect once the real high is made we're going to see ti drop all the way to under the start of the parabolic run. This is extremely common in big bubble moves. Here's an example in CVNA. I often find these moves come in at around 80 - 90% drawdown. So there'd still be room to see NVDA higher than it currently is inside...
Interesting area. Decisions from these levels tend to be quite binary. We're strong up or strong down. Given we've traded flat on this level for a long time and are in a retest of the previous lows I think it's viable to place really tight stops here. The flat trading could be an accumulation pattern. PLTR may have been accumulating for months.
Always have to worry about additional spike outs in wave 5's but the case for an AAPL top is improving. We made the parabolic rally we'd expect to see in a wave 5 top mentioned last year. Over the last while we're stalled out and recently we have 4 hour charts starting to look like bear breaks. A completed AAPL wave 5 would be a major event.
EURUSD spiking hard currently into what may be a butterfly completion point. If we can make the rejection here we're very likely to make a new low and run a bit. Really nice RR entries in this area.
Recent sell off has the potential be a bearish impulsive leg. Can't say I'm not somewhat dubious because there've been a few false signals recently. But I'm realistic with how important what I think is to the market - and it's not. Most simple and obvious thing to do at this point is limit near a retest of the high. High RR spot there and there's a real...
Picked up a bunch of shorts during the downtrend on smaller charts last night. Trend was nice and strong and allowed me to run the full position with trailing stops. Trailing stops have just hit recently and they hit in a bounce off a level I know to be a big risk level for lows. At this point, I am still willing to speculate a bigger bear move is coming but...
All of 2022 may prove to be only the penultimate move of the bull trend rather than the end itself. While the selling was strong at various times in 2022, we did not break the 38 fib and we did not trigger a capitulation style signal (Usually even if it wicked we see some sign of a strong break by now). Above the last lows, bears have a lot of risk of AAPL...
ETH made a strong drop off resistance and is now spiking the high. These are things we see in bullish breakouts but it's also something we can get in stop hunting before a big reversal. If it's stop hunting/breakout baiting it runs just far enough to stop people out/bring bulls in but not enough to pay them. As a general rule, extremely high RR trades are...
The big drop yesterday in Doge might have been a bearish impulse leg. Impulse legs start trends. When we have a possible impulse leg we want to look for corrective patterns inside of the leg for ideal spots for high RR continuation. Here we have a confluence of a harmonic and 76 retracement. Which could produce a strong sell signal. Failure of these signals...