Let me first say I don't want to argue with BTC bulls. All I want to do is to discuss the properties of trends. We happen to be relating them to BTC and happen to be looking at a bear trend. In the last new high and drop in BTC something new happened. BTC made a bog drop and when a new high was made there was no follow through extension. This was the first...
When you look at the top of major crashes the sell signals are usually quite obvious. It's easy to look at them and wonder how anyone with a half decent eye for patterns and knowledge of previous tops not have spotted that. During my time betting on major reversals I've come to see the problem is usually not you miss the signals, you just see too many too soon....
The classic bull trap pattern comes when we have an initial sell off. Some sort of retracement of that and then a failure to make a new high forming a capitulation pattern. Everyone knows this pattern, it's the classic "Return to Normal" in the bubble template. However, we also have modified versions of bull traps that make new highs. While this seems...
My attention was drawn to CVNA as a possible long trade last year due to extreme pessimism around it on social media. I seen about 20 people calling for it to go bankrupt in the same day. I often find when this happens it's worth having a look for TA patterns suggesting a "Fade the obvious" type of trade. Which CVNA had and has worked out really well. I gave...
In the impressive historic breakouts we've usually seen BTC very strong out of the retest of the previous high. We're retesting this level now and what happens in the near future I think is likely to dictate action for a while. If we can make a clean break of the high a new uptrend is on and if the attempts at it end in wicks that can be warnings of a bigger...
In stop hunting we usually see prices trading a little bit past the level they "Should". Looking very convincing at the time but turning into wicks and later being clear expressions of false breakout patterns. One of the most well known of the false breakout patterns is the head and shoulders. Where people see the pattern of higher highs and higher lows, buy...
This post is intended as a sort of bookmark in time to document what's going on right now, because this is the wildest divergences of opinions and expectations I've ever seen. Attached in the charting pic here is a piece I wrote in mid 2021. In that post I was mostly referring to the meme stocks and to some extend the crypto markets. I said I'd never seen more...
If we're making a high I think we should see this rally rejecting some time soon. A break over this area would mean we're more likely to be bull. Would probably wait for a break of high and look to buy a retest. Will sit out if we chop. Can't be bothered scalping ranges. Usually really easy to make money in the BO after if we range. Read more about the 76...
OBV stands for On-Balance Volume, which is a technical analysis indicator used by traders and investors to measure buying and selling pressure in a market. It was developed by Joseph Granville in the 1960s. Granville's theory was only a small number of big players are really important in the market. What they do is going to decide price. Conversely, the smaller...
It's easy to hate on inflation. The silent tax on the poor. The rich get to borrow the money into existence and spend it into the economy at a high value and then the process of borrowing money into existence creates a devaluation of the money by the time it reaches the general public on the lower levels. The theory on why this is meant to be good is known as...
ETGH hit the long term swing target posted in January a while ago. Since that time we've had the big 76 retest. Slight spike out of it and we currently hold the second test. In the instances where the 7 will hold, we'll not go back under it. This offers a good RR long op. We may have actually made a break of the 76 in the first run down, but even in these...
In discussions with BTC bulls in a couple of posts I've had here recently it occurred to me many of them show signs of problem gambling. I mentioned this to them a few times and they told me BTC isn't gambling. But from the perspective of someone who's been in trading a long time, I think we'd define their attitude to risk as "Problem Gambling". Curious...
NVDA went into a large clear uptrend on the break of the 1.61 fib. This is something we see in Elliot wave uptrends. If you follow my regular postings day trading you'll see me trading 1.61 breaks all the time and it's always when we get to the 2xx and 3.20 fibs I am most active in trailing my stops, because big reversals can come from these levels. NVDA has...
I feel like a lot of discussions I've had here recently are with people who know the future and/or the one true and correct way to make assessments of markets. I'm not a big believer in knowing the future and I do not know many people with over 5 yrs trading under their belt who is. I'd like to have a good old fashioned trading discussion, if anyone else is...
Strong down from the last posting saying we were into important supports. Targets on one of the first postings of GME short here hit in the last swing down, but these levels did not hold as support - which may spell out much more downside.
The Fattening of the Tails Since 2018 If you know about tails skip to the next paragraph. For those who don't, they're just another word for extremes. The idea is most of the moves in the market will be within an average expected move and then sometimes there'll be extremes. Rare events where far bigger moves happen. Think of it like the height of people. Most...
Recently we had a big flash bear trap and then a rapid recovery. These have happened in a lot of bull setups in SPX but it's also textbook for bearish Elliot waves (ABC). The bearish EW signal would fill soon. If it breaks then I think we're likely to see continued upside momentum. Plans to short a little higher and then if my stops hit buy a retest of the...
Spiking out the low of a parabolic rally is a very common occurrence in this type of pattern. It's a big panic point when all gains have been lost even if in very early to the rally. Often we see ultimate lows in these areas (Commonly off slow ranges) and even with things going much lower we see aggressive bounces. Here's an example. This is the same concept...