eddie_peso

eddie_peso

I'm bearish on Bitcoin, I still think the Dollar TVC:DXY has more room to run, but if History repeats itself, then 50k could be right around the corner by the end of the year

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if Robinhood is able to be profitable in 2023- Investors will come in - Buying the Jan 2024 60 Call at ask and selling the 70 strike against it would be a $10 debit with a possible $990 max profit at expiration if I'm right. $100 risk owning 10 spreads could be worth $9.9k at expiration (Jan 2024) - $1k risk -> $99K. Anything is possible

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A lot of early 2021 stocks that hit all time highs - were hitting the high ticker today across most industries.. Risk on? - with a positive CPI print, there might be some relief to the markets after all. I bought some Shiba at these levels for a swing- possible hold.

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Does look like a bird right? flying into the distance lol Some may say its a bull flag. Dollar Strength over the next year $UUP

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After news of the ECB having an emergency meeting - same day Powell raised rates by .75bps - The Dollar took a cooling session. Possibly due to central banks looking for ways to tackle rising borrowing costs. I don't think the bull run is over for $DXY - it takes is a global recession to see possible all time highs - even higher then the 1980's. Signs are there

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A bunch of price targets here. If things drop as fast as they went up, my bear case target is 315 by December 2022. If SPY can keep up above 400 through December 2023- We might have a decade of sideways movement without any all time highs (i.e. 2000-2013) If things continue to downtrend for the next 4 years- 280 bottom by July 2026. I would dollar cost average...

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Yet the market rallies. Small retracement of the DXY... Last time the fed raised rates by 50bps in 2000, DXY hit highs. I believe we still have room for upside. Possibly taking out the high of 1984. With certain commodities being as volatile as they are, no reason the dollar can't see 40 year highs. I dont trust this rally- not yet.

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$UUP has remained strong since my last posts. It seems like rallies in the SPY are short lived once the Dollar ticks up. A break above 104 wouldn't be a pretty sight for the markets.

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I believe we are repeating history. The weeks I have circled seem oddly similar. Historical trends are coming together into a bullish wedge. Plenty of Crypto contracts are set to expire in June, which is oddly the same time these historical trends converge. My price target for Solana is 140 floor price, 330 at its peak. Anything more than that might be a bit over done.

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At one point, there will be a mean reversion trade here. Until then, not sure how much more this will go in opposite directions. I still believe if the dollar is strong, buying international bonds cheaper then they've been in a while might see some action. Investors will be able to limit risk and improve returns by focusing only on the countries with the most...

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UUP isn't too far behind either. BTC is under 40k- has been weak all week. I still think, if the dollar remains strong, why wouldn't this be bullish for companies that are sitting on a ton of it? AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT etc. It would seem overseas bonds would look attractive at this point given the slaughter they have been receiving.

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This doesnt look good for Bitcoin. This could be the beginning of BTC to retest 20k level if the dollar keeps spiking. Commodities at all time highs, the USD is needed globally... much sooner then they need Bitcoin. Until commodities are paid in BTC, the Dollar will remain strong with EUROPE / Global uncertainty