austrian_trader

austrian_trader Updated 

BABA still struggling despite a wider rally in other tech stocks., 74% confidence. Target is $67.32, S/L would be the previous swing high at around $78/

austrian_trader Updated 

Decent ROI on this one, having fallen below it's 200 day moving average a cross under my signal line here provides a nice setup for a target around the $52 mark.

austrian_trader Updated 

Algo has tripped on this a bit ahead of the descending triangle attern completion--targetting $162.25, keeping a tight stop however as we don't have confirmation of a breakdown below the support level of 170.

austrian_trader Updated 

71% back test w/l ratio on this one that's now flagged twice. Seems to be strong support around the $179.50 range so r/r here is slightly skewed in an unfavorable 2/1 with the usual stop at the 200dma, moving it to the 55dma can give us something closer to a 1/1.

austrian_trader Updated 

Upper target of 52.92 in line with Bollinger band and a stop at the 55 period vwma offers a r/r roughly equal.

austrian_trader Updated 

Bearish Gartley on the 4h for NQ1! (or NQZ22 if you're trading futs) with a decent r/r. Stop loss at 11480ish with your profit levels at the bottom of the descending channel and the bottom of the bollinger around 10555.

austrian_trader Updated 

Shorting US treasury bonds has not been a smart idea for the last 22 years but it would seem that tied has turned....

austrian_trader Updated 

Whether you're doing the continuous contract or the December contract, lots of technical warning signs here. We aren't beearish or bullish just yet in the near term--look either for a collapse under the 50dma and a close underneath the rising wedge pattern ES has made on the weekly chart before rolling short or a breakout and defense of the upper trendline of...

austrian_trader Updated 

Gold looks to have formed a double bottom potentially. The bullish butterfly harmonic, significant volume spike, and momentum indicators climbing create a potentially appealing setup. There is of course one major caveat--a blow out employment roll print tomorrow could spike nominal yields (dragging real yields higher with them) which would put pressure on gold...

austrian_trader Updated 

With nominal yields spiking (and temporarily giving a boost to real yields) gold has understandably gotten monkey hammered this week. It's possible we dip further to 1644, but the Butterfly pattern suggests a face ripping rally if we can close above ~1754 on the daily. In either event if I was short I would be moving my stops into profit at this point to ~1767...

austrian_trader Updated 

Perhaps time to short, at least tactically. The Russell has fallen below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages and seeming confirmed a breakdown below a descending triangle (sloppily drawn) the began to form at the beginning of the month. On a daily chart of standard candles there is a gap to fill around 1423, perhaps we are headed there now. A trailing stop...

austrian_trader Updated 

Definitely looks like a break out, though volume is a tad underwhelming. Fundamentals for gold however, given the central bank flailing occurring globally, could not be stronger. Still a long position here looks promising but beware another margin call type event if we have a repeat of March!

austrian_trader Updated 

Clearer on the daily chart how XAG looks to have broken out of a continuation pattern while the 4h shows a successful retest and okay volume. A long here is appealing assuming we don't get another massive sell off in equities that causes gold and silver to sell off to cover margin calls. An leveraged long play here may be appealing with a stop-loss just under...

austrian_trader Updated 

Potential long here. Same rules as always--stop loss under the 10dma (or hedge this, maybe long oil if that's your play). First target would be the 200dma at .9035 or so.

austrian_trader Updated 

Silver has been struggling at ~$18.32 for over a month but today's breakout seems to be on some strength. Before entering you may want to wait for a test around $18.50 or even at the $18.32 level again. On the other hand, Covid seems like it's going to get worse before it gets better and that may send PMs higher in the short term. I'd either hedge this by being...

austrian_trader Updated 

Given the Fed's relentless pumping it's hard to be bearish on bitcoin, and we may have a fresh break out here. Now this is a touch early, the algo likes it and there's what appears to be a break out above a descending trend-line BUT...that trend line has yet to be tested, and we are still well below the 50, 100, and 200 day moving averages. Still, if this is a...

austrian_trader Updated 

As much as it doesn't make sense (Repo, global dollar liquidity shortage, worsening macro outlook) neither the DXY nor the S&P 500 seems to care. So, if reality has not yet decided to assert itself in the market, then the DXY is probably headed down to test the bottom of this channel at 96.60.

austrian_trader Updated 

It has not been a good year to go short on the S&P 500 (or really a good decade) but, and I say this with some hesitation, perhaps it is time. Right now, I don't expect this to be anything but a pullback to the 50 day moving average (and thus breaking underneath the top of the long running megaphone pattern the fintwit bears post ad-nauseum). If the 50 day...