Good Morning Everyone! The 2Yr Yield is retesting the recent support level, highlighted by arrows. The 10Yr #yield is currently breaking the recent uptrend. The yellow box was highlighted in the last post showing the WEAKNESS. However, forgot to speak on that yesterday (see profile for more info). They cannot lower #interestrates... But they must, at least...
We suspect that the US 10Y yield chart has topped short term having tested and again failed at its previous uptrend at 4.74 (which is now acting as resistance) . Please see the weekly chart. This throws the spotlight on key nearby support where we find a short term uptrend, last week's low, the 55-day ma and the 200-day ma together with a previous high all...
The critical support level to watch here is the 50-day MA at 4.38%, as a failed break below this yield will allow yields to spike to 5% off the back of a continued sell-off in US long-term paper despite the Feds efforts to aid the US bond market. Keep an eye on the tail in this week’s US 10-year note auction! The markets were hit by a dovish FOMC statement last...
Rough map pf rate expectation without pretension of accuracy for dates nor timing...
Short term #yield is higher. Long term has turned & are catching a bid. At the moment it doesn't look like they're going down any time soon & that is not good longer term. Was speaking with loan officer yesterday & they believe they must lower before election. But, what if it goes higher before it goes lower? TVC:TNX
The early morning Asian sessions saw some peculiar moves with the USDJPY pair falling to a low of 154.56. There are rumors of possible FX intervention from BoJ to save their vulnerable Yen. Simultaneously, there was strong buying pressure for the US 10year which is pulling yields down aggressively. The US 10-year yield is showing signs of pulling back following...
Released data for the US economy during the previous week could point to the stagflation moment in the US during the course of this year. Posted data for core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index show that in March it increased by 2.8% on a yearly basis, from 2.6% expected by the markets. At the same time, the first estimate for the US GDP Growth Rate was...
1O YR yields may have topped and are retracing. Yields are rolling down ⤵️ TLT is up ticking 📈 as yields come down as expected 🧭
My projection for this week was a bit late but nonetheless, bullish projections of lowest displacement fair value gap was the target and yields achieved it, topping out just before CE was met @ 4.696%. Shortly after, yields witnessed a sharp paintbrush retracement mid week and never closed out higher than the highs printed on Wednesday 17th April 2024. On...
10 year looks to be heading to 5 or 5.5 %. MACD and RSI showing upward trend on weekly still. Upward fib extension looks to retest previous high or beyond if Fed doesn’t lower rates anytime soon. Looking for CPI prints to see whether Inflation is going back up which may impact 10 year and I believe the market will continue down while 10 year heads upwards so I’m...
1O YR yields may have topped and are retracing to 4.4%. ⤵️ TLT which have an inverse relationship with the yields are reversing back up. 📈 Time to short 10 YR YIELDS and Long TLT? 🤔 🧭 👇
Introduction: I won't have many comments on the US 10-Year Treasury Bonds (US10Y) as the statements made by Chairman Powell could alter the chart. In my estimation, it seems unlikely that there will be further interest rate cuts for a while, which could have positive implications for the price of gold. Technical Analysis: The chart for US 10-Year Treasury Bonds...
To be or not to be – the rate cut this year? The markets switched their expectations from March and May toward September, although currently not with high certainty. Recent data show still high resilience of the US economy on tight monetary policy. Retail sales in March were increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis, which was a figure much higher from 0.3% expected by...
US10Y possibly heading lower towards 4.30 after a huge spike all the way to 4.70
The US treasury market is becoming agitated at the latest Fed stance that rates may most likely remain unchanged through the 2Q2024 and 3Q2024 which has put upward pressure on the US treasury yields. US 10-year yields broke back above 4.50% last week and a continued sell-off will see yields spike back to 5.00% for as long as the current Fed narrative holds it...
Last weeks bullish projection played out as expected with the monthly OB and liquidity void being met by the end of this weeks trading. Trend is your friend and although it's not guaranteed we will continue to trend upwards, there's a higher probability that US10Y does rather than not on a weekly timeframe. This does not mean this weeks price action will reprice...
1981 to 2020 - 39 years! the US10Y has been going down! In 2020 it's start reversing like crazy! What is going on!
US short term funding requirements (33% of existing debt to mature next year) + a clean unbroken trend seems to head the 10 yr yield to 5.2%. This view doesn't constitute investment advice.