Different Types of Risk On / Off IndicatorsJNK/TLT is equal to HYG/TLT IWM/SPY IWM/QQQ BTCUSD is a newer one. Time will tell if it holds up. "Risk on" means risk on 'outperforms' risk off. It does not mean risk on goes up and risk off goes down. They can move in the same direction.by UnknownUnicorn168483420
HYG IS NEARING A I.T. LOW HYG is now in the last wave within this decline or correction . this is the last neg for the markets. for this down leg . and we are now ready to see the mark go from BEAR PHASE target date jan 27 plus or minus 1 day . We now rally I will post . DO NOT BE SHORT Longby wavetimer2
Credit markets signal danger if HYG continues below 84HYG can be used as a proxy to indicate health of U.S. credit markets, which is an economic backbone. Since my recent post about macro indicators, HYG has fallen further. You can see on chart that every move below 84.00 corresponds with a market downturn. So if January stock market declines happened as HYG kept going below 86 and 85, you can imagine greater market declines if HYG keeps falling. IF, keyword. Further, this fits with the Fed statement that asset purchases will be reduced. Less systemic liquidity will drop markets. Junk bonds are seeming less attractive. Corporate credit tightens when Fed reduces liquidity. Applied to consumer credit, the nonstop loan and credit offers flooding mailboxes in 2020 have stopped (okay, greatly reduced). I will be buying March expiry puts if HYG breaks 84. by OptionsRisingUpdated 886
hyg and jnk bonds are in dangerous spot with inflation + sellingInflation cpi near 7%, future potential rate hikes, FED reducing future purchases. Why would ne money be excited to jump in and buy up riskier paper at rates near 4-5% and stocks in a bear market? At what interest rate and risk premium are junk bonds attractive?by optionfarmers0
HYG Round TopScaling in for a short position. If it fails, cut immediately and move on. What're your thoughts? Shortby UnknownUnicorn36146700
HYGthe levy is soon to break, markets to follow ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,by hillbilly250113
HYG Death Cross... Caution WarrantedHYG put in a Death Cross last week and this week, on November 22nd, HYG lost the October 11th low with SPY selling off heavy into the close. We may backtest the October 11th low but this is a potential negative indicator for equity risk on. Equities tend follow lockstep with high yield, or so they have with every major selloff since 2007-2008. This is something to keep an eye on over the next week or so, especially after Thanksgiving.by CoteInvestmentsUpdated 112
YTD Bond Performance Bond performance across USTY short and long term, US HY, US IG and EM sovereign and Corp.by root4squareroot0
Finding markets bottomsFinding markets bottoms, adding the new lows and new highs for better see the internal condition of the marketby JoaoPauloPires0
junk bonds undesired while treasuries catching bid, hyg over tltwith higher inflation and possible shrinking forward guidance, are corporate junk grade bonds less desirable now? maybe the market doesnt top out or pull back, but cpi over 5% while junk bonds yield mid 4% starts to sound less attractive for the risk, doesnt it?by optionfarmers1
HYG vs SPY - on Watch HYG ETF, index composed of U.S. dollar-denominated, high yield corporate bonds. Versus SPY ETF. HYG at triplet resistance, Wedge fractal characteristics, 50ma Week, potential break.by Leo1Luke2
HYG High yield corporate bond ETF 1/0.1HYG High yield corporate bond ETF 1/0.1 Price levels chart - dailyby MKlyk1
Junk bonds topping out = Bearish leading indicatorThis is a monthly chart of the high yield corporate bonds ETF - aka "junk bonds". Notice that it is right at the a multi-year trend line. I expect this to start to go down given the multi-year resistance line. Yet one more canary pointing to a market top. by doctorfibonnaci0
Negative Rate Cut? Powell Wants a Correction $SPYThe markets are at a crucial spot and Powell is due for a decision soon... The chance of negative rates is low but definitely not out of the picture and if that happens, TLT will pump and HYG/IWM will dump (yes SPY too). Timing will be hard but the pressure is certainly building and is confirmed on the technical side of things. $TLT tested a crucial level at $148.9 this last week which could signal weakness in the equity/bond market as well as the Dollar. Either A) things will spin out of control regarding Delta variant and TLT will breakout or we could see this melt-up continue for roughly 4-5 more months before seeing IWM and the rest of the market make its correction. If TLT were to fall the market could also very likely follow to the downside, this environment is choppy. On the other hand, we watch IWM as it typically can signal weakness in the market via smaller cap companies. If the markets do correct, puts on IWM/HYG will pay beautifully. I'll give this 6 - 8 month then pop, otherwise my short position will get stopped and we could just continue to melt up until the next election. Also whether Crypto has it's one or two top cycle will play a part in all this as money will either transfer away or to the Crypto market (& possibly away from other markets). It should go as followed If markets do correct to the downside: 1) TLT will breakout and possibly melt quickly as done in 2020 or flash crash. SPY/ETFs could see a gap down then trend up to retest as resistance 2) SPY will begin its bleed, IWM HYG leads the way to the downside. 3) Metals and Cryptos seem like they could move in sync. Cryptos might even lead the way. The one question I ask is if people sell out of both Cryptos and Stocks, where does their money go? Will this create the largest spending era or send us into a depression? Share your thoughts below DCJ | Melt-Up or Short Shortby DotcomJack222
Credit - HYG ShortIdea for HYG: - Top of the range, rising wedge. - Short TP1: 77. - PT 67. GLHF - DPTShortby UnknownUnicorn10436465
SHORT | HYGAMEX:HYG Possible Scenario: SHORT Evidence: Price Action Call options, Strike 86$, 05/28/21 80%POSITION * This is my idea and could be wrong 100%Shortby shksprUpdated 2
2021-04-09, Fri. HYG showing Bullish signs.Looked like the massive money printing is working.by NYC19760
Is it time to short corporate bonds?Biden is planning is raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations. Bearish channel, looking to bounce off resistance possibly. Short TLT, Long TBTby amfunk0