On Thursday, May 16th, I was sipping coffee and watching The Today Show , when a guest appeared on the program to talk about how much money YOU are supposedly making in your 401(k). Oddly enough the commentator - who was identified as the "chief business correspondent for CNN" - then reminded viewers that "you really should only look at your 401(k) once or twice...
The purpose of this chart is to show how retirement funds are drained once returns reach 20%. The reason this happens is because the purpose of the 401(k) is to prevent working people from ever reaching anything that resembles financial independence. From the time we begin our careers to the time that we reach retirement age, we are CONSTANTLY told that if we do...
Late last year the Spread of the US/JP Carry Trade hit the PCZ of a Bearish Shark resulting in it pulling back to the 50% Retrace, this came ahead of Bearish Action in the stock market and strength in the JPY. However, the bounce at the 50% retrace indicates that it could turn into a Bullish 5-0 which would result in higher highs. In addition to that, the leverage...
Treasury bond TLT has been trading lower since the start of 2024, but after an impulsive rally at the end of 2023, we believe it's just making and finishing a deep A-B-C corrective decline. It's actually now coming into key strong support zone at 61,8% - 78,6% Fibo. retracement and channel support line, from where we should be aware of bounce, recovery and...
Daily weekly long. Hourly flat as a pancake. This could be start of primary wave 2 of 5 or we will have a blow off top continued. Watch 10yr data tomorrow around lunch. I’ll update when I can. Bullish anywhere above $5199.25. Bearish below to $5100.75 Remember big expiration next week on the 17th.
Short term #yield is higher. Long term has turned & are catching a bid. At the moment it doesn't look like they're going down any time soon & that is not good longer term. Was speaking with loan officer yesterday & they believe they must lower before election. But, what if it goes higher before it goes lower? TVC:TNX
Global Central Bank Balance Sheet denominated in USD has broken the uptrend line down almost 16% or $5 trillion which is about 5% of Global GDP. Why does that matter to you? Because there are $5 trillion more bonds available that have been invested in the bond market which takes away from other asset classes. While global debt has skyrocketed (meaning more ...
NASDAQ:TLT seems to be setting up for one last move higher. I think we're likely to see a bottom of the short term move between around here at $92. Then I think post fed meeting, we'll get a move in TLT up to the $98 resistance, that's where you'd want to be a seller of TLT or buy puts. After that, I think largely the remainder of this year will be bearish...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below): The key development today is the formation of the first Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame in 9 months (since July 10 2023). This is a huge technical buy signal on its own and becomes even more so since...
It has been some time since we checked the #Japanese #Yen vs US #Dollar. Updated the chart a bit since last time. Clear bottom forming inverse head & Shoulder pattern. Broke and retested the 2002 highs. Bounced off the Green Moving Avg, successful retest. Japanese are selling foreign investments as their #interestrates have increased. We've spoken on that a few times.
Good Morning Everyone We finally see what we were expecting. That was the expectation for #Yields to pump higher. There was a NORMALIZATION of the yield curve taking place. However, the 2Yr has moved faster than 10Yr today. IF the #FederalReserve drops rates causing the normalization of the curve it could cause the end of this bull run. The best scenario would...
What would cause rates to move higher? Inflation 2.0? According to this long term yield chart were about to experience a paradigm shift in rates. If this Monthly Golden cross occurs we should see a bull market in rates continue into the future. This would not be a good sing for risk equites. The last time we got the opposite signal" Death cross" we saw a...
Daily is winding up to an inflection point, while the weekly is getting close as well. I'm favoring the bearish break; but there is a chance for a bullish reversal- so time will tell. What I can say is that we're approaching a conclusive point in time that will send price with signifcant momentum in either direction. When I look for an inflection point I watch for...
TMF on the 4H chart is set up at the bottom descending support trendline of a symmetrical triangle in the approach to the apex. Price appears ready to reach for the upper descending resistance trend line and the Echo Indicator ( Lux Algo ) makes that forecast. Current ambiguities in a rate cut soon upcoming will make values of Treasuries a complicated...
What a difference 11 hours makes. The 1 & 2 Yr #Yield are STILL under resistance & are weakening. 10 & 30 Yr completely reversed once markets opened. But this tends to be normal, pretty frequent. This is why waiting for a CLOSE is of utmost importance. IF we CLOSE here, last night's thinking is NO MORE and the best plan of action is to WAIT. TVC:TNX
Pour yourself a glass of Goldschläger and let's review the 12 steps before diving into this. 1. We admitted that we were powerless over the Fed -- that our balance sheet had become unmanageable. 2. Came to believe that a Power greater than our central bank could restore us to solvency. 3. Made a decision to turn our fiat over to the care of sound money, as we...
Seeing a weekly momentum shift forming, expect major trend change. Couple of scenarios, Economy could break and fed allows inflation to creep up while easing on rates, If they reduce reverse repo rates then yields will drop as money market funds buy 1 yr bills on the open market again. Otherwise they might have to increase rates if inflation continues to weigh...