GOLD CRASH!! THE ENDING, 1865/1925 THE LAST KISS OF DEATH!!
It's been a crazy two months all around. COVID-19 infected my trading for sure. Or maybe I forgot to pay attention to the Fed. But the swing in gold and gold equity in 2020 has got to be without precedent.
On the bright side, I believe this is the vaccine for that. This is part 5, and the ending to my GOLD CRASH SERIES. In this chat, I used XAUUSD from OANDA as opposed to GC.
No updates until 4/17.
On the bright side, I believe this is the vaccine for that. This is part 5, and the ending to my GOLD CRASH SERIES. In this chat, I used XAUUSD from OANDA as opposed to GC.
No updates until 4/17.
Comment:
CLARIFICATION OF PREVIOUS TANGENT:
1. I am expecting gold to pump, dump, and then set up for a explosion between mid July and early October.
2. During this span, GDXJ should hit 50, pb to 22, and then jump to 72.
3. During this span, JNUG will explode from $6 to $X, and then crash to $Y, and then explode to $Z.
4. The trade is to buy JNUG otm calls from Y TO Z.
5. This is SPECULATION not INVESTING.
6. But how else do you get 100X to 400x return in 75 days?
7. This trade is in its infancy, we need to see to GDXJ make the move to 50+ and redraw to to around 20-23 to START buying the first batch (out of 3 -5 batches) of JNUG OTM calls.
1. I am expecting gold to pump, dump, and then set up for a explosion between mid July and early October.
2. During this span, GDXJ should hit 50, pb to 22, and then jump to 72.
3. During this span, JNUG will explode from $6 to $X, and then crash to $Y, and then explode to $Z.
4. The trade is to buy JNUG otm calls from Y TO Z.
5. This is SPECULATION not INVESTING.
6. But how else do you get 100X to 400x return in 75 days?
7. This trade is in its infancy, we need to see to GDXJ make the move to 50+ and redraw to to around 20-23 to START buying the first batch (out of 3 -5 batches) of JNUG OTM calls.
Comment:
JNUG UPDATE:
Ran the numbers again b/c it looked way too good. Now I am getting:
GDXJ to 51 to 30 to 74. So? JNUG Y to Z move would roughly be 700% not 1400%. So? It's going to be 100:1 trade. Not 400:1, my bad.
Ran the numbers again b/c it looked way too good. Now I am getting:
GDXJ to 51 to 30 to 74. So? JNUG Y to Z move would roughly be 700% not 1400%. So? It's going to be 100:1 trade. Not 400:1, my bad.
Comment:
SUNDAY, REMINDER ABOUT THIS RUN UP:
The crash after is the better trade.
The crash after is the better trade.
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By all means, I would be 300% long gold at least through noon Thursday.
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UPDATE see below Monday 10:35 AM.
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UPDATE: MON 11:10 AM.
Not sure exactly about peak day, 4/17 to 4/21, it will pick one.
Not sure exactly about peak day, 4/17 to 4/21, it will pick one.
Comment:
CLARIFICATION: the 1865/1925 is referring to the spot/futures basis, so XAUUSD would be 1865 and GC1! would be 1965.
Comment:
UPDATE MON 1:10 PM
The shape of the incoming volume suggests no real drawback thru Tuesday close. If XAUUSD hits 1840 tomorrow, longs should exit and reeengage Wed.
The shape of the incoming volume suggests no real drawback thru Tuesday close. If XAUUSD hits 1840 tomorrow, longs should exit and reeengage Wed.
Comment:
CLARIFICATION AGAIN:
GC1! would be 1925, NOT 1965, typo.
GC1! would be 1925, NOT 1965, typo.
Comment:
UPDATE: MAYBE A DOUBLE TOP?
Here's what I know now:
Tomorrow - Tuesday - afternoon, there should be A high, not necessarily the high. XAUUSD around 1840 and GC around 1890. After that there should be a 1-2 day drop of 90 pts, bringing us back to 1750 XAUUSD and 1800. Need to see what IVO looks like to figure out more. It almost seems like there's a second top after that by Thursday 4.23.
Here's what I know now:
Tomorrow - Tuesday - afternoon, there should be A high, not necessarily the high. XAUUSD around 1840 and GC around 1890. After that there should be a 1-2 day drop of 90 pts, bringing us back to 1750 XAUUSD and 1800. Need to see what IVO looks like to figure out more. It almost seems like there's a second top after that by Thursday 4.23.
Comment:
UPDATE: MON 9:32 PM CT.
THIS IS WHAT I'M THINKING
CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY XAUUSD/GC @ 1835 1885
1. My first reaction is was this was A top, not THE top
2. Under historical conditions I've looked at, IT SHOULD BE THE TOP, followed by a devastating 2-3 weeks, dead cat bounce and then another wave down to 1435. All of this should take 60 days. My IVO on the 3 day is THE BEST SHORT SIGNAL I'VE EVER SEEN. On the daily, it's going to die between 2-6 bars, and I'm leaning 2 or 3.
3. That said, tomorrow GDX SHOULD HIT A NEW HIGH 52 WEEK HIGH, that's 32 days after a 46% draw down that took 7 days. This is NOT NORMAL price action.
5. The interesting part here, is that GDXJ might not have time to hit a new high.
6. This makes it a triple A short for 7 weeks
7. I HAVE A VERY HARD TIME BELIEVING THAT GC WILL 1900, UNLESS THERE'S A 90 PT PULL BACK BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE UP. BUT A 90 PT PULL BACK WOULD PUT THE DAILY IVO INTO ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE NEW HIGH POSITION, NOT TO MENTION ALL TIME HIGH.
THIS IS WHAT I'M THINKING
CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY XAUUSD/GC @ 1835 1885
1. My first reaction is was this was A top, not THE top
2. Under historical conditions I've looked at, IT SHOULD BE THE TOP, followed by a devastating 2-3 weeks, dead cat bounce and then another wave down to 1435. All of this should take 60 days. My IVO on the 3 day is THE BEST SHORT SIGNAL I'VE EVER SEEN. On the daily, it's going to die between 2-6 bars, and I'm leaning 2 or 3.
3. That said, tomorrow GDX SHOULD HIT A NEW HIGH 52 WEEK HIGH, that's 32 days after a 46% draw down that took 7 days. This is NOT NORMAL price action.
5. The interesting part here, is that GDXJ might not have time to hit a new high.
6. This makes it a triple A short for 7 weeks
7. I HAVE A VERY HARD TIME BELIEVING THAT GC WILL 1900, UNLESS THERE'S A 90 PT PULL BACK BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE UP. BUT A 90 PT PULL BACK WOULD PUT THE DAILY IVO INTO ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE NEW HIGH POSITION, NOT TO MENTION ALL TIME HIGH.
Comment:
*TYPO* 1. My first reaction was, "this is going to be A TOP, not THE TOP".
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TANGENT: IT IS F*****G SCAM THAT GC IS 1781 AND XAUUSD IS 1722. SOMETIME THIS YEAR OR NEXT, LBMA-COMEX IS GOING TO FORCED TO END THIS SCAM.
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UPDATE: TUES 9AM. PROBABLY NOT TODAY. BY VIRTUE OF MOMENTUM NOW WEDNESDAY, BY VIRTUE OF FUNDAMENTALS NOW THURSDAY.
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UPDATE, THURSDAY 1:24 AM CT.
CEILINGS FOR THURS/FRI: 1835 1879. THIS SHOULD BE IT. Shorting GDXJ on Friday should be spectacular right into May NFP.
CEILINGS FOR THURS/FRI: 1835 1879. THIS SHOULD BE IT. Shorting GDXJ on Friday should be spectacular right into May NFP.
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UPDATE ,THURSDAY 12:50 PM.
Even though on 8 hour bars say its crashing, 18 minute bars say selling exhaustion. If trade with gold cycles, and I do when it rhymes, it really should top tomorrow.
Even though on 8 hour bars say its crashing, 18 minute bars say selling exhaustion. If trade with gold cycles, and I do when it rhymes, it really should top tomorrow.
Comment:
LAST UPDATE UNTIL I SOLVE SOME PROBLEMS:
I havent been updating because Ive been getting strongly conflicting sginals from XAUUSD, GC, and GLD. I think I may have a way to reconciliate that. But until I do, I don't have anything to add.
I havent been updating because Ive been getting strongly conflicting sginals from XAUUSD, GC, and GLD. I think I may have a way to reconciliate that. But until I do, I don't have anything to add.
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I am formulating JNUG (3X GDXJ) trade that I believe will pay off from 100:1 to 400:1. Now that I have your attention. It's not for this month. I am expecting gold to "PUMP AND DUMP" the next 30 days. If this plays out, I am thinking that GDXJ can hit 50 next week and then retrace to 22 before the real magic starts in June/July. My software is suggesting JNUG could make a 1400% move between MAY and OCTOBER , but as we get closer, we can pin it down to a 11-week window.
JNUG is 6.09 right now. I don't know what it will be at GDXJ's race and retrace next 8 weeks, but for a raw numbers excercise, that is like $6 to $84 int 75 days. $100 can net you $25,000. Anyway, we will pick up from here later.