EURUSD : The outlook for the coming week or two
The chart above explains. It is 400pips now :)
Congratulation to those who caught the 'C'. Now you will begin to appreciate those 3 yellow lines better.
The week is Jackson Hole. Powell will say something about rates. But believe it or not, whatever he is going to say does not matter to DXY. It would just keep going UP.
Today seems to be an important day @ DXY, perhaps after battling 103.50 for close to seven days now, it seems to gain a foothold ABOVE 103.50. The next 24 hours is important to see if this hold.
EURUSD will VERY likely fall to 1.0713. The next test is 1.0575 where I think price will take a short break for events likely happening on 2 October. Lets see how that goes.
So, be very careful once price reach 1.0575 in case you are still SELLING.
Good luck.
P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
Congratulation to those who caught the 'C'. Now you will begin to appreciate those 3 yellow lines better.
The week is Jackson Hole. Powell will say something about rates. But believe it or not, whatever he is going to say does not matter to DXY. It would just keep going UP.
Today seems to be an important day @ DXY, perhaps after battling 103.50 for close to seven days now, it seems to gain a foothold ABOVE 103.50. The next 24 hours is important to see if this hold.
EURUSD will VERY likely fall to 1.0713. The next test is 1.0575 where I think price will take a short break for events likely happening on 2 October. Lets see how that goes.
So, be very careful once price reach 1.0575 in case you are still SELLING.
Good luck.
P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
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You guys manage to catch the profits going up and then coming down?
Now, do you know how this GAME is played?
Good luck.
Now, do you know how this GAME is played?
Good luck.
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It looks like price would be trading within the 2 yellow lines of 1.0825 and 1.0713.
So far, there is NO indication the price will go BELOW 1.0713.
I would continue SELLING with the price nearing the above yellow line @ 1.0825 and take profit on the dip. And repeat :)
Good luck.
So far, there is NO indication the price will go BELOW 1.0713.
I would continue SELLING with the price nearing the above yellow line @ 1.0825 and take profit on the dip. And repeat :)
Good luck.
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As you can see, SELLING proves to be the correct decision.
But we are nearing 1.0575, and so we need to be CAREFUL. Price may bounced back UP as BUYERS may step in to wrest back control.
Good luck.
But we are nearing 1.0575, and so we need to be CAREFUL. Price may bounced back UP as BUYERS may step in to wrest back control.
Good luck.
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Price had reached 1.0713 and is resting here. The next target on the way down is 1.0575. When trading, we need to know the key levels the price will go to. But this in itself is not enough to make us a profitable trader. To be profitable, we also need to understand R/R.
We now must realize the trading range is considerably wider - from 1.0825 to 1.0575, with price now in the 'middle' I do not like to initiate a trade in the middle, so I will wait for it to move back UP towards 1.0825 before I begin selling again.
Note that 1.0575 is a strong SUPPORT zone.
Good luck :)
We now must realize the trading range is considerably wider - from 1.0825 to 1.0575, with price now in the 'middle' I do not like to initiate a trade in the middle, so I will wait for it to move back UP towards 1.0825 before I begin selling again.
Note that 1.0575 is a strong SUPPORT zone.
Good luck :)
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From the above, suppose TP @ 1.0705, the R/R = 5.0
I trade with R/R > 3 (depending on the time frame)
To do so, you need PATIENCE.
The reason this is IMPORTANT is because in trading, there is NO CERTAINTY, only PROBABILITIES.
Good luck.
I trade with R/R > 3 (depending on the time frame)
To do so, you need PATIENCE.
The reason this is IMPORTANT is because in trading, there is NO CERTAINTY, only PROBABILITIES.
Good luck.
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Applying common sense in trading is VERY important. As you can see, price is now sitting at 1.0713 waiting for 'volunteers' to go check out what is below. Ask yourself, do you want to be that 'volunteer'?
It is true that if you map out the ABCD structure, we can see the MARKET does have the intention to go to 1.0575, but we need to also understand that the 'journey' this time is quite treacherous, for it has to pass by the dangerous line @ 1.0612. Besides, a HUGE jump at one go is also quite risky.
So now, we wait. Perhaps there would someone to come back with a 'report' soon of what is 'below'. Remember, price almost always comes back - there is now hurry :)
Good luck.
It is true that if you map out the ABCD structure, we can see the MARKET does have the intention to go to 1.0575, but we need to also understand that the 'journey' this time is quite treacherous, for it has to pass by the dangerous line @ 1.0612. Besides, a HUGE jump at one go is also quite risky.
So now, we wait. Perhaps there would someone to come back with a 'report' soon of what is 'below'. Remember, price almost always comes back - there is now hurry :)
Good luck.
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The week seems to have ended with the price still coiling around 1.0713. No brave soul could be found to venture into the unknown below. And common sense will tell us to be patient.
As with preparing for a long journey, adequate 'SUPPLIES' and 'REWARD' are a prerequisite. And it can only be found ABOVE. These brave souls would demand an appropriate R/R to undertake such a dangerous journey.
Good luck to those brave 'volunteers'.
And I hope this would enlightened those new to this game - be patient.
As with preparing for a long journey, adequate 'SUPPLIES' and 'REWARD' are a prerequisite. And it can only be found ABOVE. These brave souls would demand an appropriate R/R to undertake such a dangerous journey.
Good luck to those brave 'volunteers'.
And I hope this would enlightened those new to this game - be patient.
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Yield going up.
CPI going up.
Surely the Fed would hike again.
And Dollar will surely RISE. But why is EURUSD not dropping???
Well, by now, many of you would be glad that we did not continue SELLing when the price reached the yellow line @ 1.0713. For those who listened, you would not have lost money. And for those who are attentive enough, they would buy instead. I think only a few understood the REAL reason for what was happening. why the price stopped dropping at 1.0713. And why did it rise?
The most important skill in trading is knowing how to think - analytical & critical. Without that, you can easily be manipulated. The difference between winning and losing in FX trading is the 'enlightenment' of the MIND, which is an instantaneous event, often after years of 'meditation'. One day, you will 'wake up' and suddenly realize how the FX world really works. And there is no going back.
If you hadn't had that awakening, you would find yourself believing in MSM, parroting the establishment narrative/technique, and being part of the 80%++ who lose money - and still do not understanding WHY :)
Call me if you would like to seek enlightenment, and I will show you Nirvana.
Hahaha........... Good luck.
CPI going up.
Surely the Fed would hike again.
And Dollar will surely RISE. But why is EURUSD not dropping???
Well, by now, many of you would be glad that we did not continue SELLing when the price reached the yellow line @ 1.0713. For those who listened, you would not have lost money. And for those who are attentive enough, they would buy instead. I think only a few understood the REAL reason for what was happening. why the price stopped dropping at 1.0713. And why did it rise?
The most important skill in trading is knowing how to think - analytical & critical. Without that, you can easily be manipulated. The difference between winning and losing in FX trading is the 'enlightenment' of the MIND, which is an instantaneous event, often after years of 'meditation'. One day, you will 'wake up' and suddenly realize how the FX world really works. And there is no going back.
If you hadn't had that awakening, you would find yourself believing in MSM, parroting the establishment narrative/technique, and being part of the 80%++ who lose money - and still do not understanding WHY :)
Call me if you would like to seek enlightenment, and I will show you Nirvana.
Hahaha........... Good luck.
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7 Sept 2023 - Big D and Small D - Remember???
We start with a story.
FX trading is just like a CASINO. A casino actually has one mission - to take your money. But it can only do so if you put your money ON THE TABLE. Understand this crucial bit. FX movement do not concern anyone (not the tourist needing some foreign currency or importer/exporter trading in goods). It is only when a FX trader starts trading BUY/SELL that the entire process starts. They want your money.
Here comes the interesting part of the story. Lets say apples is in short supply. But everyone likes it so much. So the price of apple goes UP as dictated by the law of Demand & Supply. All is well as long as people get to eat apples, albeit a bit more expensive now. But what happen when apples run out but people still want to eat apples. People are willing to pay but there is no stock. What do you think those apple lovers will do??? Yes, you are right, they will steal and rob............
Now can you relate this to why your SL almost always FAIL. You may think it should be OK to set it slightly higher/lower than the previous high/low. The fact is, you just got robbed. If there are no new market participants or supplies - the existing ones are targeted.
Now, lets look at the US10Y which has been going ever higher. It does not make sense. Some may say with the coming recession, people will buy into long term bonds and because of that yield will definitely come down. Some may also say that Yellen is now selling a lot of UST. With supplies going up, so does yield.
But what if those BIG INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS know that the shit is going to hit the fan soon and are trying to get their hands on as much L/T UST as possible. And now, they are engineering a DROP in the price of BONDs. Do you think it would trigger the SL of a significant number of bond holders?
We know for SURE a BIG RECESSION is coming. I don't have to tell you this. Wherever you may be living now, you know the situation. Applying common sense, should US10Y be going up or down?
EURUSD will go down simply because >60% of traders are LONG. It will continue to go DOWN until all the money are TAKEN by the MARKET MAKERS @ 1.0575 - just when you think your SL is safe @ 1.0612 where the POC is.
So, where do you think EURUSD will go now? UP or DOWN?
Good luck.
P/S : As always, do not simply believe what I say. Use your common sense.