EURUSD : SELL

I think now is the time to plan for the eventual rise of $. I am beginning to have a really bad feeling that something will 'break' soon. When that happens, it would be quick and relentless.

I belief US10Y would touch 5% soon. UST is used as a benchmark for nearly all investment. Once it hits 5%, it would make all these investment un-viable. Why invest when there is a risk free option that pays well!!! Even the BOJ is thinking along this line when they set the upper limit of the JP10Y to 1%. They foresee a max 5% for UST - they see a max of 4% differential, which was what happened last October. If UST goes above 5%, I think BOJ will raise the upper limit to 1.5% - depending on how they see US10Y will go.

Note that 10s02s has been rising, to a point later when it un-invert - with both 10s and 02s falling - of course, with the 02s falling much faster.

I am cutting back on my BUYs.

Now I am starting my SELLs.

Good luck.

P/S : Do not just belief what I say. Use your common sense.

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ALL of us starts by trading FX by learning about PRICE ACTION. Then of course we use trend lines, indicators a lots of other stuffs preached by Gurus/Expert in this field. And of course 80%++ lose money. All because they belief what they are taught/told. The remaining 20% might make some money, but most likely break-even. And I think only 1% or probably less can ever managed to consistently be profitable. Who are these 'lucky' people - I think they are the one who uses common sense.

Lets look at the chart above. I have drawn a nice trendline. It is just for illustration. Those of you who know me knows that I DO NOT BELIEF in trendlines.

I think by now, many FX noobs would be so excited by now. The see price action starting to show HH and HL. Most importantly, they see that price had broken above the all important trendline . And guess what they are going to do???

Let me tell you again - in FX what matters most is what the MARKET MAKER wants. Belief me, they do NOT use trendlines or bother about price action. All they care about is profits. If you know what is in their mind, yesterday shows there is a sign of desperation in what they do when price moves to 1.0600. We must know the reason why they are eager to push price up. Then you will know what can happen next.

Good luck.

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Is price bullish or is it something else?
Of course it is now dropping after going up as high as 1.0694
What can we learn from this ?- what is the hint?

Price moved up quick yesterday from 1.0600 to 1.0675 - if we know this game well, we know the reason, especially the price level at play.

Know one thing, a lot of money are transacted in FX daily. The majority of these transactions happens OUTSIDE of the spot market - keep this in mind - knowing this alone should make you think hard and understand the charts better.

Good luck.