The chart above explains.
Let recap from where we ended previously.
It seems the 'prediction' @ 1.0655 being the low still holds true. This is quite important actually. Those with a keen sense of fundamentals, especially about volume know why this is so. Price did NOT go to the POC even though it was near @ 1.0612 simply because it need not and would not. This shows BUYER is still very much in CONTROL. And if it does move near 1.0612, it might trip a lot of SL and this might cause a sudden FALL in price.
Note that price is reacting to the test levels @ 1.0683, 1.0747. One more to go @ 1.0825 before price breaks free.
It also looks that the MARKET had already made up its mind as far as the next FOMC plus dot plot is concerned.
From the above chart, I can seen eventually where price might go. Note that these are still all about probabilities and NOT certainty. As to why price have a greater tendency to move UP instead of down, you need to refer back to the earlier ideas. But, I will add more in the coming days.
Good luck.
P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
Let recap from where we ended previously.
It seems the 'prediction' @ 1.0655 being the low still holds true. This is quite important actually. Those with a keen sense of fundamentals, especially about volume know why this is so. Price did NOT go to the POC even though it was near @ 1.0612 simply because it need not and would not. This shows BUYER is still very much in CONTROL. And if it does move near 1.0612, it might trip a lot of SL and this might cause a sudden FALL in price.
Note that price is reacting to the test levels @ 1.0683, 1.0747. One more to go @ 1.0825 before price breaks free.
It also looks that the MARKET had already made up its mind as far as the next FOMC plus dot plot is concerned.
From the above chart, I can seen eventually where price might go. Note that these are still all about probabilities and NOT certainty. As to why price have a greater tendency to move UP instead of down, you need to refer back to the earlier ideas. But, I will add more in the coming days.
Good luck.
P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
Comment:
If the FED pause and/or dot plot holds steady, then we may be seeing the start of the dollar BULL run. This chart above would not apply anymore as EURUSD would begin a steady decline. You would know this because price would NOT break above the critical 1.0825!!!
I know we still see the COTR with a lot of BULLISH speculators. But if I am correct, then we can see perhaps a sharp reversal this/next week.
Good luck.
I know we still see the COTR with a lot of BULLISH speculators. But if I am correct, then we can see perhaps a sharp reversal this/next week.
Good luck.
Comment:
We had the PPI and FOMC with a new 'hawkish' dot plot.
Price went above 1.0825 only to hit the 'D' - a trap. And as you can see now, things are not looking good for BUYERS. But they are still hoping that it is a 'skip' and maybe later today, the ECB might help with their cause.
So, we still have to wait for the 07/2023 FOMC and more importantly, the next CPI.
When trading FX, it is very important we do not get too attached to our position and always be READY to change our stance. To do that, you need to know what to look out for. And as I said previously, there is a big PROBAB ILITY that we are now entering the beginning of the DOLLAR BULL RUN. It's all in a chart.
Price went above 1.0825 only to hit the 'D' - a trap. And as you can see now, things are not looking good for BUYERS. But they are still hoping that it is a 'skip' and maybe later today, the ECB might help with their cause.
So, we still have to wait for the 07/2023 FOMC and more importantly, the next CPI.
When trading FX, it is very important we do not get too attached to our position and always be READY to change our stance. To do that, you need to know what to look out for. And as I said previously, there is a big PROBAB ILITY that we are now entering the beginning of the DOLLAR BULL RUN. It's all in a chart.
Comment:
I guessed I was wrong about BUYERS. Lagarde - 'higher for longer' provides the impetus for their action. Is the MARKET truly believing in this? Or just taking the opportunity to offload? Looking at the volume offers a better explanation.
It seems that those in a recession or about to enter one are seeing the value of their currency rise. Strange indeed. EURUSD and NZDJPY now look to offer some fantastic opportunities. I am definitely NOT BUYING. Those who do are simply nuts - it's too late and it does not make common sense.
Price action in the last few hours defies ABCD - this means price is now highly erratic/volatile, and we know what this usually leads to - a sudden, drastic fall lies ahead.
Good luck.
It seems that those in a recession or about to enter one are seeing the value of their currency rise. Strange indeed. EURUSD and NZDJPY now look to offer some fantastic opportunities. I am definitely NOT BUYING. Those who do are simply nuts - it's too late and it does not make common sense.
Price action in the last few hours defies ABCD - this means price is now highly erratic/volatile, and we know what this usually leads to - a sudden, drastic fall lies ahead.
Good luck.
Comment:
Comment:
Moving SL to entry.
Lets enjoy the ride :)
Lets enjoy the ride :)
Comment:
Price has been moving sideways for many hours now. For those who have been following and understands, you should know what it is all about.
When price moves lower, the implication here is actually HUGE. If you look at the other idea on USDJPY, you can see that I am also SELLING. So, I am SELLING EURUSD and USDJPY. What does that tells us?
When price moves lower, the implication here is actually HUGE. If you look at the other idea on USDJPY, you can see that I am also SELLING. So, I am SELLING EURUSD and USDJPY. What does that tells us?
Comment:
Get ready to add more :)
Comment:
Looking at the chart pattern, it looks like the MARKET knows where to go. It just needs more time to sort out something URGENT behind the scenes. Most likely, once its task is completed, we can see something EXPLOSIVE.
The longer it moves horizontally, the more we can expect of the coming movement.
Good luck.
The longer it moves horizontally, the more we can expect of the coming movement.
Good luck.
Comment:
And so price seems to have taken an opportunity to rise. But the thing is that Powell did not say anything in particular. Is this for real? I do not think so as we can see from US10Y.
It also seems the previous effort has been in vain. But let's try again. If we have been careful, then we should not suffer any losses. But if we had been a bit smarter, we would have at least gained 23pips.
How? chart coming up. See it before I delete it.
Good luck :)
It also seems the previous effort has been in vain. But let's try again. If we have been careful, then we should not suffer any losses. But if we had been a bit smarter, we would have at least gained 23pips.
How? chart coming up. See it before I delete it.
Good luck :)
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Moving SL to entry. Good luck :)
Comment:
Understanding charts is not enough. To survive in this business, we MUST know economic fundamentals.
TP @ 1.0655 for 350pips.
TP @ 1.0655 for 350pips.
Comment:
When I first started, I always concentrated on price. When it goes up, I see that there is demand. When it goes down, perhaps supply > demand. This is actually a simple matter but for those who are experienced, we know this is not true at all, for there is a slight twist to it.
Every Fx pair involves 2 currencies - if EURUSD goes UP and if Volume plays along, then we can say that the MARKET is in favor of Euro. But if EURUSD goes up but volume drops, the MARKET is actually looking for Dollar and is willing to pay top Euro for it.
I think EURUSD will fall once the dollar condition loosen - which might take some time. So what to do now? Wait?
Every Fx pair involves 2 currencies - if EURUSD goes UP and if Volume plays along, then we can say that the MARKET is in favor of Euro. But if EURUSD goes up but volume drops, the MARKET is actually looking for Dollar and is willing to pay top Euro for it.
I think EURUSD will fall once the dollar condition loosen - which might take some time. So what to do now? Wait?
Comment:
It seems I am correct. EURUSD just 'dropped, and of course, today is Wednesday. And that leaves us with the question - what will happen one the FED cut rates? Will EURUSD goes UP or DROP like crazy?
Comment:
Bond yields just went UP, especially the US02Y. If it continues to do so after today's Core PCE announcement, then it would be very DIFFICULT for EURUSD to continue its fall. Good luck.
Comment:
Core PCE seems to be still high - causing bond yield to remain elevated. As mentioned yesterday, EURUSD will find it difficult to fall. Seems I am CORRECT again.
As you can see, knowing the fundamentals lets you know where the price will move next. It is all in an 'EQUATION' that lets you know when price pivots. Something like mathematics. Once you know this equation, you can easily 'predict' how the price will move next. Sounds interesting right :)
As you can see, knowing the fundamentals lets you know where the price will move next. It is all in an 'EQUATION' that lets you know when price pivots. Something like mathematics. Once you know this equation, you can easily 'predict' how the price will move next. Sounds interesting right :)
Do you know the implications?
As you can see, the price is struggling to move above 1.0825!!! It just manage to hit 1.0824 :)
See why this level is so important.
Which means if it can't move above this critical level, chances are it WON'T move UP anymore.
We have probably just seen the HIGH for EURUSD. And why is that?
Good luck.