i_am_siew

EURUSD : Common sense

Short
i_am_siew Updated   
FX_IDC:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Sometimes I read book on FX trading.

Yesterday I read one called the black book of Fx trading written by a guy who claims to be consistently profitable. My guess is, either he is a bullshit or he is not really telling how he does it. Anyway, I am more inclined to believe he is the former. But I can see there is truth in the first chapter when he describe how easy it is to lose money and a whole lot of people out there preying on our naivety.

Be careful who you trust.

Above all, use our greatest gift - COMMON SENSE.

Good luck.
Comment:
Price is pointing DOWN.
As we can see, it is pointing to 1.03
Incidentally, there is a lot of interest @ 1.03, all waiting for you know what - occurring at around this time 1 month from now.

Good luck.
Comment:
1.0909 is holding well. This is a significant price point.
If you read the charts well, then you can see 3 yellow lines that were drawn out long ago. To many, these lines seems insignificant and quite random - probably useless. From the chart above, we can see price moves up and down - also quite random and to untrained eyes, does not make any sense whatsoever.

Now price bounced off somewhere near yellow @ 1.0713. If this is 50% and the previous top is 1.1140, then where is the bottom? 1.0300 sound about right isn't. It is also the D and also the end of the 800pips.

So now you see the next stop where price will go?

Exciting right? Anticipation?

There is actually more to 'see' if only you can 'see' it.

Good luck.
Comment:
The above comments still holds true.

One of the most important thing to identify on the chart is the SL. Once you are able to determine this point, then everything else is simple.

Next comes patience. Why is it you need patience? Patience for what? What is it we are waiting for? For those following and able to understand, the answer is simple, all I am waiting for is a favorable R/R > 3

Where to TP is a bit tricky. It is a matter of judgement. This is where knowing the fundamental is important. It also depends on the us. For those new to the game, then the timeframe should be shorter. When our experience grows, then we can look further out - which means our TP can go much further.

Good luck.
Comment:
Once price goes below the previous low @ 1.0802 - then there is a high probability BUYERS had given up with price likely to fall.

Seller would be in control.

To understand this concept, we need to use 'trendlines'.

Good luck.
Comment:
Price is moving along as anticipated.
Seller is in control - It is really a awesome feeling to be able to anticipate price movements.

When travelling far, great quantity of supplies are required. If I plan to travel South, then I would need to look for supplies - cheaper ones are usually available up North. But soon, these sources of cheaper supplies would eventually run out, which would leave all fellow travelers no choice but to replenish their supplies on the way down. And when there is scarcity or a scramble, you know what will happen next.

Good luck.
Comment:
Price is still moving as anticipated. As we can see, if we want to trade without worry, there is just 2 things to keep in mind - who is in control and where exactly will control changes hand. Fluctuation in short term price movement do not affect us. Our focus remain fixed.

As always, to know the next move, we only need to look at BOND YIELD. It is funny to see that recent BAD news in the economy continues to drive up 'risk' assets like BTC and XAU. Of course, the MSM is partly to blame as they are driving many into a frenzy. BTC to $200k - XAU to $3k and many believed. Dollar will CRASH because of printing bla bla bla ........... And yet, they are still priced in dollar.

Many would still be wondering at this stage, what is driving EURUSD? I can say that 99% still do not understand. We can summarize what the MARKET MAKER is doing:
a) the market maker along with the MSM is now trying to convince everyone that EURUSD is BULLISH. I can see many had already begin to change their stance to BUY. When you BUY, then they can SELL.
b) another way of getting SUPPLIES is to rob and plunder fellow SELLERs.

Good luck.
Comment:
It was a tough call - SL@1.0909 while the 'D" came in at 1.0920!

Powell's testimony seems to have a little impact but quickly subside.

It would look nice to SELL now with a final SL at 1.0920
If it continues to go UP, then looks like we have to wait a little longer untill the 'higher for longer' effect wears down.

Good luck.
Comment:
Shit happens - lost the trade and just needed to ensure the loses are small with proper use of SL . Lets remain focused.

Now price is at the next 'D' @ 1.0940/45 and there seems to be a reaction here. This is what I think - If price continues to go UP above this 'D', then we can see where it is going and I would just wait there for my next move.

If price DO NOT make it above 1.0940/45, then most likely all these wild movements is nothing more than a shakeout aka 'robbery'. I took advantage of the 'D' and would likely add to it once price moves back below 1.0909.

Good luck.
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