This will be my final idea.
We have been hearing lately many types of landing scenarios being discussed. Now, I think many of us would start to think that there might NOT be a recession at all. Or if there is one, it would be a 'soft' landing. But I think the BEST answer to this question is what the MARKET says. If we look at the 10s02s, its inversion now is unprecedented - this means ONLY way the market is looking at this = CRASH landing. Last week provides another indication to this if we are observant when the US10Y drops when indications of lower inflation was announced. Either the market thinks inflation is falling or growth is falling or BOTH are falling lead to a rush to BUY LONG term bonds. You would notice too that the USDJPY played along. Perhaps the market strategist are now preparing for the eventual 'collapse', and when this happens, the best thing to hold is long term UST - which I think is being bought in huge quantities. Even the recent topping up of the TGA did not cause a rise in yield. And the reverse REPO is dropping with the money most likely going into UST.
Note that the US10Y has been below the EFFR for a prolong period now, something quite different from the previous scenario. The future is indeed bleak.
All this points to only one thing, the next FOMC next week will likely see the FINAL 25bps hike. Thereafter, inflation will fall. Whether GDP will also fall is yet to be seen, but with the LEI pointing downwards for so long now, I think a crash is imminent.
I know many would think that if the economy crumbles, the Fed can always come to save the day by printing and printing. But I think this time it is not to easy as in the past. Two simple reasons - the first is the fact that the HOLE is too BIG now for the Fed to cover. Second, there is the lack of foreign buyers for UST.
So the final question is how will the Dollar/DXY perform? The chart above already provides part of the answer. As to WHY it will likely go UP instead of down, perhaps we need to ask those who are loading UP on UST now. When you have so much UST with the economy going into recession, which do you prefer? A strong dollar or a weak one for the asset you are holding? especially if/when the recession is global.
Two FX pairs to watch now - EURUSD and USDJPY. Most likely USDJPY would continue to rise until the 'market makers' get back their earlier selling price when price is at the top. When USDJPY reach a new high, that is when we need to be careful. Then, when BOTH the EURUSD and USDJPY drops together, that would be the finale!!!
And one simple question we can all answer together - do you really think Euro can be stronger than the Dollar with all that is happening in Europe?
Good luck.
P/S : Do not simply believe what I say. Use your common sense.
We have been hearing lately many types of landing scenarios being discussed. Now, I think many of us would start to think that there might NOT be a recession at all. Or if there is one, it would be a 'soft' landing. But I think the BEST answer to this question is what the MARKET says. If we look at the 10s02s, its inversion now is unprecedented - this means ONLY way the market is looking at this = CRASH landing. Last week provides another indication to this if we are observant when the US10Y drops when indications of lower inflation was announced. Either the market thinks inflation is falling or growth is falling or BOTH are falling lead to a rush to BUY LONG term bonds. You would notice too that the USDJPY played along. Perhaps the market strategist are now preparing for the eventual 'collapse', and when this happens, the best thing to hold is long term UST - which I think is being bought in huge quantities. Even the recent topping up of the TGA did not cause a rise in yield. And the reverse REPO is dropping with the money most likely going into UST.
Note that the US10Y has been below the EFFR for a prolong period now, something quite different from the previous scenario. The future is indeed bleak.
All this points to only one thing, the next FOMC next week will likely see the FINAL 25bps hike. Thereafter, inflation will fall. Whether GDP will also fall is yet to be seen, but with the LEI pointing downwards for so long now, I think a crash is imminent.
I know many would think that if the economy crumbles, the Fed can always come to save the day by printing and printing. But I think this time it is not to easy as in the past. Two simple reasons - the first is the fact that the HOLE is too BIG now for the Fed to cover. Second, there is the lack of foreign buyers for UST.
So the final question is how will the Dollar/DXY perform? The chart above already provides part of the answer. As to WHY it will likely go UP instead of down, perhaps we need to ask those who are loading UP on UST now. When you have so much UST with the economy going into recession, which do you prefer? A strong dollar or a weak one for the asset you are holding? especially if/when the recession is global.
Two FX pairs to watch now - EURUSD and USDJPY. Most likely USDJPY would continue to rise until the 'market makers' get back their earlier selling price when price is at the top. When USDJPY reach a new high, that is when we need to be careful. Then, when BOTH the EURUSD and USDJPY drops together, that would be the finale!!!
And one simple question we can all answer together - do you really think Euro can be stronger than the Dollar with all that is happening in Europe?
Good luck.
P/S : Do not simply believe what I say. Use your common sense.
Comment:
EURUSD - 200pips now and counting.
TP now?
Why not let it run till parity .
Good luck :)
TP now?
Why not let it run till parity .
Good luck :)
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EURUSD - Is selling a good idea?
If we look at the COTR, the BIG speculators seem to be very BULLISH. Should we just follow them and BUY?
This is just the kind of moment you have to decide for yourself - which is to know the 'WHY' for your trades.
Good luck.
If we look at the COTR, the BIG speculators seem to be very BULLISH. Should we just follow them and BUY?
This is just the kind of moment you have to decide for yourself - which is to know the 'WHY' for your trades.
Good luck.
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What goes UP must also come DOWN, except of course time/age.
The Fed will CUT one day - sooner rather than later.
What happens when they cut rates? On average, the SPX falls 23.5% on average, over a period of 195 days from the first day of the cut to the MARKET LOW. In 2008, it fell by nearly 60%.
It is NEVER different this TIME. Get it!
The MARKET ALMOST ALWAYS prepare for the what is to come at least 6 months in ADVANCE.
Good luck,
The Fed will CUT one day - sooner rather than later.
What happens when they cut rates? On average, the SPX falls 23.5% on average, over a period of 195 days from the first day of the cut to the MARKET LOW. In 2008, it fell by nearly 60%.
It is NEVER different this TIME. Get it!
The MARKET ALMOST ALWAYS prepare for the what is to come at least 6 months in ADVANCE.
Good luck,
Comment:
EURUSD : Price continues to fall :) - now it is already 300pips.
The best trade in this world is when you know exactly when the MARKET turns around/reverse - what I call 'PRECISION'. If you manage to catch it at the right moment, you can become a very profitable trader. You can't find the answer in any of the charts or indicators.
Watch out for USDJPY.
Good luck :)
The best trade in this world is when you know exactly when the MARKET turns around/reverse - what I call 'PRECISION'. If you manage to catch it at the right moment, you can become a very profitable trader. You can't find the answer in any of the charts or indicators.
Watch out for USDJPY.
Good luck :)
Comment:
The END is indeed near - recent events these past 3 days seems to support this.
What can small traders like us expect? If we follow the MSM, we would be screwed because I do not believe any of their BS.
This is what I think will happen. Once the MARKET know what is to come, they would move to safety. This is common sense. As I said, the MARKET is turning around/reverse. They would need time, probably 6 months or so. In the meantime, they MARKET MAKER would use the MSM to mislead. Example of this was Reuters reporting that their 'sources' had 'leaked' that BOJ would maintain easy policy 1 week before the meeting.
FX and Bond are the first to see a shift. Stock would continue to maintain their current high and even move higher to facilitate the stealth selling by the BIG BOYS. If you want to short the SPX/NDX/DJI, this is not the time yet - 6 months!!! Stocks are the ALWAYS the last to FALL, when the market runs out of fools. When they do, it is always abrupt and 'without warning'.
As we all know by now, Yellen is expected to issue UST in excess of trillions in the coming months. By the looks of it, this is fiscal irresponsibility by the US government. But, the way I look at this is that they are preparing a 'home' for the money now in stocks. This would ensure liquidity remains within the DOLLAR system. It seems that the BOJ is thinking along the same lines when it expands the YCC band for JP10Y. Money would soon flow back to Japan.
Of course, Yellen gets a lot of help from from Powell who hike hike hike.
Now that US gets downgraded to AA+, the question we need to ask - do you want to hold Dollar or Euro? The answer should be quite simple :)
Good luck.
What can small traders like us expect? If we follow the MSM, we would be screwed because I do not believe any of their BS.
This is what I think will happen. Once the MARKET know what is to come, they would move to safety. This is common sense. As I said, the MARKET is turning around/reverse. They would need time, probably 6 months or so. In the meantime, they MARKET MAKER would use the MSM to mislead. Example of this was Reuters reporting that their 'sources' had 'leaked' that BOJ would maintain easy policy 1 week before the meeting.
FX and Bond are the first to see a shift. Stock would continue to maintain their current high and even move higher to facilitate the stealth selling by the BIG BOYS. If you want to short the SPX/NDX/DJI, this is not the time yet - 6 months!!! Stocks are the ALWAYS the last to FALL, when the market runs out of fools. When they do, it is always abrupt and 'without warning'.
As we all know by now, Yellen is expected to issue UST in excess of trillions in the coming months. By the looks of it, this is fiscal irresponsibility by the US government. But, the way I look at this is that they are preparing a 'home' for the money now in stocks. This would ensure liquidity remains within the DOLLAR system. It seems that the BOJ is thinking along the same lines when it expands the YCC band for JP10Y. Money would soon flow back to Japan.
Of course, Yellen gets a lot of help from from Powell who hike hike hike.
Now that US gets downgraded to AA+, the question we need to ask - do you want to hold Dollar or Euro? The answer should be quite simple :)
Good luck.
Comment:
This is for the many XAU lovers out there.
Be careful with what you hear from the MAIN STREAM MEDIA (MSM).
Be careful with their BUY advice.
When shit hits the fan, only one thing comes to mind = LIQUIDITY
GOLD HAS 2 PROBLEMS:
1) it can never be easily converted to CASH when you NEED it in large amount and FAST - without the price dropping :)
2) it can NEVER replace UST as COLLATERAL.
So, shit is about to hit the fan, you want to hold GOLD?
Good luck.
Be careful with what you hear from the MAIN STREAM MEDIA (MSM).
Be careful with their BUY advice.
When shit hits the fan, only one thing comes to mind = LIQUIDITY
GOLD HAS 2 PROBLEMS:
1) it can never be easily converted to CASH when you NEED it in large amount and FAST - without the price dropping :)
2) it can NEVER replace UST as COLLATERAL.
So, shit is about to hit the fan, you want to hold GOLD?
Good luck.
Comment:
EURUSD : Based on my calculation, price had already covered 25% on its way DOWN. There is still 75% to go, probably ending somewhere @ 0.9800.
We have still 1000++ pips to go.
Good luck.
We have still 1000++ pips to go.
Good luck.
Comment:
Structure intact - next stop @ 1.0840
Remember, there will be heavy resistance @ 1.0825, beyond that, price is free to move further down.
Good luck.
Remember, there will be heavy resistance @ 1.0825, beyond that, price is free to move further down.
Good luck.
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Notice anything?
Price is now stopping at the halfway mark of its intended destination I mentioned earlier. It is now thinking - deciding. And the it would make a go for it.
Good luck.
Price is now stopping at the halfway mark of its intended destination I mentioned earlier. It is now thinking - deciding. And the it would make a go for it.
Good luck.
Comment:
There are 3 things we need to remember:
1) There is a BIG difference between 'Anticipation' and 'Prediction'. As you all know, I am a BIG fan of ANTICIPATION. Anticipation roughly means you know what you are doing based on your analysis. Those who are predicting are those who do not know what they are doing. They will draw a trend line or use an indicator to buy/sell. If you ask them WHY price will go up/down, they can't give you an answer. Now, as with the Art of Anticipation suggest, we can see why 1.0825 remains the key level. If you have been following me long enough, you should know the number of times I mentioned this.
2) understand MACRO. This is by far the most important, as it will let you know the longer term FX trend. So these past few days saw the release of the CPI and PPI. It is slightly higher. So the bond yield is also trending higher. Many talking heads are screaming that the USD goes UP because of higher yield. The question is, do you agree? Do you think that if bond yield falls, USD would also fall? I can tell you a big majority do not know the REASON, while they might give you the correct answer which is a 50-50 thing - up or down.
3) belief in yourself more than anything else. Having an IQ > 125 is one thing. But being OBJECTIVE (ability to act when the results of your conclusion may not be in your liking) and INDEPENDENT THINKING (the ability to reach conclusions without being influenced by others) are equally important.
The 'Art of Anticipation" is coming up. See it before I delete it.
Good luck.
1) There is a BIG difference between 'Anticipation' and 'Prediction'. As you all know, I am a BIG fan of ANTICIPATION. Anticipation roughly means you know what you are doing based on your analysis. Those who are predicting are those who do not know what they are doing. They will draw a trend line or use an indicator to buy/sell. If you ask them WHY price will go up/down, they can't give you an answer. Now, as with the Art of Anticipation suggest, we can see why 1.0825 remains the key level. If you have been following me long enough, you should know the number of times I mentioned this.
2) understand MACRO. This is by far the most important, as it will let you know the longer term FX trend. So these past few days saw the release of the CPI and PPI. It is slightly higher. So the bond yield is also trending higher. Many talking heads are screaming that the USD goes UP because of higher yield. The question is, do you agree? Do you think that if bond yield falls, USD would also fall? I can tell you a big majority do not know the REASON, while they might give you the correct answer which is a 50-50 thing - up or down.
3) belief in yourself more than anything else. Having an IQ > 125 is one thing. But being OBJECTIVE (ability to act when the results of your conclusion may not be in your liking) and INDEPENDENT THINKING (the ability to reach conclusions without being influenced by others) are equally important.
The 'Art of Anticipation" is coming up. See it before I delete it.
Good luck.
Comment:
Comment:
DXY @ 126.00 - The question that comes to mind is, is it possible? To answer this question, we need foresight and a proper understanding of macro against a geopolitical background.
Many would certainly argue that when a recession comes, the Fed would print print print because that is what they do best. Then we have massive QE and DXY would certainly drop like a stone, XAU would rise as all those 'gold lovers' had predicted; and of course, stock market would rally with SPX/DJI/NDX going to the moon.
If we notice recently, US10Y is rising and the MA100 just went above the MA200. This is quite bullish. Of course, we are all told that this is because inflation is 'rising' and the Fed need to fight inflation with higher rates.
Now let see what Ueda did recently. He raised the trading band of the JP10Y to 1.0%. Of course, he needs to fight inflation???
Then of course, we have Yellen selling a lot of UST, especially the long dated one which was said to have a 'slow' take up rate. The reason for this is because of the 'massive' budget deficit.
But one thing is for SURE, there is a great COMPETITION now to PULL IN all the LIQUIDITY into ones currency/border. The best way to do so is by offering 'high' rates. As we know, this will not go on for long as a possible 'global recession' may be coming. And when that happens, Uncle Sam would just switch off all existing dollar currency SWAP to 'unfriendly' countries. There would be a MASSIVE shortage of USD outside of the 'land of the free'.
If you think a global recession is not possible, I suggest we look around us. Where I live, things do not look good. Prices are high and keep going UP even when the government says otherwise. There is a massive budget deficit, with both demand and supply shrinking. This looks to me like stagflation.
Or do you still think that Uncle Sam is going to be benevolent and will continue to provide 'liquidity' to the rest of the world?
Good luck.
Many would certainly argue that when a recession comes, the Fed would print print print because that is what they do best. Then we have massive QE and DXY would certainly drop like a stone, XAU would rise as all those 'gold lovers' had predicted; and of course, stock market would rally with SPX/DJI/NDX going to the moon.
If we notice recently, US10Y is rising and the MA100 just went above the MA200. This is quite bullish. Of course, we are all told that this is because inflation is 'rising' and the Fed need to fight inflation with higher rates.
Now let see what Ueda did recently. He raised the trading band of the JP10Y to 1.0%. Of course, he needs to fight inflation???
Then of course, we have Yellen selling a lot of UST, especially the long dated one which was said to have a 'slow' take up rate. The reason for this is because of the 'massive' budget deficit.
But one thing is for SURE, there is a great COMPETITION now to PULL IN all the LIQUIDITY into ones currency/border. The best way to do so is by offering 'high' rates. As we know, this will not go on for long as a possible 'global recession' may be coming. And when that happens, Uncle Sam would just switch off all existing dollar currency SWAP to 'unfriendly' countries. There would be a MASSIVE shortage of USD outside of the 'land of the free'.
If you think a global recession is not possible, I suggest we look around us. Where I live, things do not look good. Prices are high and keep going UP even when the government says otherwise. There is a massive budget deficit, with both demand and supply shrinking. This looks to me like stagflation.
Or do you still think that Uncle Sam is going to be benevolent and will continue to provide 'liquidity' to the rest of the world?
Good luck.
Comment:
You know where the BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY right at this moment.
The answer = CHFJPY
But you must know WHEN and WHERE and also not forgetting the SL.
Good luck.
The answer = CHFJPY
But you must know WHEN and WHERE and also not forgetting the SL.
Good luck.
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It looks like volume took the plunge.
And since volume moves ahead of price, then it is very likely that price will easily pass 1.0825.
Good luck.
And since volume moves ahead of price, then it is very likely that price will easily pass 1.0825.
Good luck.
Comment:
EURUSD - There would be 3 resistance line that price will face when going down. They are :
a) 1.0825
b) 1.0713
c) 1.0575 ---> buyers will definitely defend here
Once price reach 1.0510 and below (AR point in Wyckoff), we can safely anticipate price would continue to move down.
Good luck.
a) 1.0825
b) 1.0713
c) 1.0575 ---> buyers will definitely defend here
Once price reach 1.0510 and below (AR point in Wyckoff), we can safely anticipate price would continue to move down.
Good luck.
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Waloweh!!!, sekarang dia dah makan viagra - naik mengembang nak mampus. Dah melebihi paras 103.50. Boleh ke tahan lama?
Comment:
DXY is breaking FREE above 103.50
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Hedge Funds have been losing big on the U.S. Dollar Index’s
DXY
rally over the last 8 weeks, the dollar’s longest winning streak in 9 years.
If we look at the COTR, it seems that it is true. As BIG and EXPERIENCE as they are, they are making 3 mistakes:
a) failure to recognize trading direction
b) did not use stop loss
c) greed - makes them add more when price is already at the end of the run.
Good luck.
DXY
rally over the last 8 weeks, the dollar’s longest winning streak in 9 years. If we look at the COTR, it seems that it is true. As BIG and EXPERIENCE as they are, they are making 3 mistakes:
a) failure to recognize trading direction
b) did not use stop loss
c) greed - makes them add more when price is already at the end of the run.
Good luck.
Comment:
50MA and 100MA is touching 200MA soon.
The last time this happened was in 07/2021. It rises 22.00 from 92.00 to 114.00
If the same 22.00 is added to the current 105.00, it should be 127.00, which is around the 'D" that we are anticipating.
Good luck.
The last time this happened was in 07/2021. It rises 22.00 from 92.00 to 114.00
If the same 22.00 is added to the current 105.00, it should be 127.00, which is around the 'D" that we are anticipating.
Good luck.
Comment:
Price is now trying to break above the 'A'. This should be a bit harder and price may retrace downwards a bit.
But if it gets above, then it can go much higher :)
But if it gets above, then it can go much higher :)
Comment:
When lawmakers fail to pass legislation funding the federal government before the end of the fiscal year on September 30, 2023, there will be a Federal Government Shutdown. Because Congress is not anticipated to enact the 12 appropriations bills that finance government operations before the start of the next fiscal year, it looks like a government shutdown will occur on October 1, 2023.
Comment:
Yesterday was FOMC and we all heard what Powell said. There would be no cut in March. So what???
As anticipated, DXY went up.
I just did an update of the calculation with 'the' formula. Yes, DXY @ 126 is still very much intact. Mind you, this is based on a very 'conservative' calculation.
But DXY can collapse if ............... We just have to know when to get out when the time comes.
So, regardless of what Powell say or what we hear from the media, I hope we all understand well the 'fundamentals'.
Good luck.
As anticipated, DXY went up.
I just did an update of the calculation with 'the' formula. Yes, DXY @ 126 is still very much intact. Mind you, this is based on a very 'conservative' calculation.
But DXY can collapse if ............... We just have to know when to get out when the time comes.
So, regardless of what Powell say or what we hear from the media, I hope we all understand well the 'fundamentals'.
Good luck.
Just pay attention to USDJPY - if it FALLS further, just a bit more, then you should know what that means.
Do not fall into the 'dollar short' trap ahead of what might be a GLOBAL recession.
Good luck to all of us.