Macro Monday 45~The China Caixin PMI (Manu, Serv & Composite)
Macro Monday 45
The China Caixin PMI
(Services and Composite released Today Monday)
Last week week we looked at the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI which will revise today with its updated readings that were released last Tuesday.
We will also look at the China Caixin Services PMI and the Caixin Composite PMI (a combination of the Services and Manufacturing PMI's) as these will both be released later today.
1.Manufacturing PMI – Already released
2. Services PMI – Released Today 6th May 2024
3. Composite PMI Released Today 6th May 2024 (both 1 + 2 combined)
What is the Caixin PMI?
▫️ The is an S&P Global report released monthly.
▫️ The Caixin PMI focuses on small & medium sized enterprises (SME’s) in China.
▫️ Surveys a small sample size of 650 private and state owned manufacturers and service providers.
Why Focus on China PMI's?
China, the 2nd largest economy in the world at approx. $18 trillion is often referred to as the world’s manufacturing superpower. In 2019, the Chinese manufacturing sector contributed nearly $4 trillion towards the country’s total economic output. Manufacturing accounted for almost 30% of China’s GDP during 2019 demonstrating the importance of manufacturing and the surveys completed by the manufacturers through the Purchaser Managers Index (PMI) surveys. Incredibly, in 2023 China’s manufacturing continued to increase and contributed 31.7% to China GDP, furthermore China’s exports reached record highs of $3.36 trillion. For a country that gets a lot of bad economic press, the economic data from manufacturing and exports suggests China is adaptable and is currently in expansionary territory. This will be further evident from the PMI charts we are about to review also.
Like most PMI’s the data will generally be derived from the following sub indicies; New Orders, Output, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
Reading both PMI’s:
>50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month.
< 50 represents contraction
A reading of 50 indicates no change.
The Charts
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI - APR 2024
✅51.4 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary)
▫️ Increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 51.1 in Mar 2024
▫️ Increased from 51.1 in Mar 2024 to 51.4 in Apr 2024 – Figures for April were released on the 30th April 2024 (last week).
✅The Caixin Manufacturing PMI has remained expansionary for 6 consecutive (Nov 2023 – Apr 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 lows of 40.3, since then making a series of higher lows and recently sustaining 6 months of expansionary readings.
China Caixin Services PMI - Mar 2024
✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary)
⏳ April Figures released today (pending)
▫️ Increased from 50.2 in Sept 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024
▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures for April are released on today Monday 6th April 2024.
✅The Caixin Services PMI has remained expansionary for 15 consecutive months (Jan 2023 – Mar 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 lows of 26.5 when services took a huge hit during COVID-19 lockdowns, since then making a series of higher lows and recently sustaining 15 months of expansionary readings.
China Caixin COMPOSITE PMI - Mar 2024
✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary)
⏳ April Figures released today (pending)
THIS IS THE SUBJECT CHART AT OUTSET
▫️ Increased from 50 in Oct 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024
▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures for April are released on today Monday 6th April 2024.
✅The Caixin Composite PMI has remained expansionary for 5 consecutive months (Nov 2023 – Mar 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 similar to Manufacturing and Services PMI charts above. Looking at the composite chart, one can see that we moving sideways since Dec 2023 (Dec 52.6, Jan 52.5, Feb 52.5 & Mar 52.7). We are comfortably in the expansionary green zone on the composite.
In Summary
(subject to tomorrow’s readings for the Services and Composite PMI but we assume expansionary)
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
↗️ Expansionary
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April 2024 rose to 51.4, marking the sixth straight month of expansion and the fastest growth since February 2023
China Caixin Services PMI
↗️ Expansionary
As of March 2024, the Caixin Services PMI increased slightly to 52.7, indicating growth in the services sector for the 15th consecutive month
(April 2024 Figures Release Today)
China Caixin COMPOSITE PMI
↗️ Expansionary
The Composite PMI reached 52.7 in March 2023, the highest since May 2023, showing the fifth consecutive month of growth in overall private sector activity.
(April 2024 Figures Release Today)
All the above readings suggest a continued expansion across China’s services and manufacturing sectors, reflecting improvements in demand and business activity across the SME cohort.
All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful
Lets get after it again this week 💪🏻
PUKA
The China Caixin PMI
(Services and Composite released Today Monday)
Last week week we looked at the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI which will revise today with its updated readings that were released last Tuesday.
We will also look at the China Caixin Services PMI and the Caixin Composite PMI (a combination of the Services and Manufacturing PMI's) as these will both be released later today.
1.Manufacturing PMI – Already released
2. Services PMI – Released Today 6th May 2024
3. Composite PMI Released Today 6th May 2024 (both 1 + 2 combined)
What is the Caixin PMI?
▫️ The is an S&P Global report released monthly.
▫️ The Caixin PMI focuses on small & medium sized enterprises (SME’s) in China.
▫️ Surveys a small sample size of 650 private and state owned manufacturers and service providers.
Why Focus on China PMI's?
China, the 2nd largest economy in the world at approx. $18 trillion is often referred to as the world’s manufacturing superpower. In 2019, the Chinese manufacturing sector contributed nearly $4 trillion towards the country’s total economic output. Manufacturing accounted for almost 30% of China’s GDP during 2019 demonstrating the importance of manufacturing and the surveys completed by the manufacturers through the Purchaser Managers Index (PMI) surveys. Incredibly, in 2023 China’s manufacturing continued to increase and contributed 31.7% to China GDP, furthermore China’s exports reached record highs of $3.36 trillion. For a country that gets a lot of bad economic press, the economic data from manufacturing and exports suggests China is adaptable and is currently in expansionary territory. This will be further evident from the PMI charts we are about to review also.
Like most PMI’s the data will generally be derived from the following sub indicies; New Orders, Output, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
Reading both PMI’s:
>50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month.
< 50 represents contraction
A reading of 50 indicates no change.
The Charts
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI - APR 2024
✅51.4 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary)
▫️ Increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 51.1 in Mar 2024
▫️ Increased from 51.1 in Mar 2024 to 51.4 in Apr 2024 – Figures for April were released on the 30th April 2024 (last week).
✅The Caixin Manufacturing PMI has remained expansionary for 6 consecutive (Nov 2023 – Apr 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 lows of 40.3, since then making a series of higher lows and recently sustaining 6 months of expansionary readings.
China Caixin Services PMI - Mar 2024
✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary)
⏳ April Figures released today (pending)
▫️ Increased from 50.2 in Sept 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024
▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures for April are released on today Monday 6th April 2024.
✅The Caixin Services PMI has remained expansionary for 15 consecutive months (Jan 2023 – Mar 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 lows of 26.5 when services took a huge hit during COVID-19 lockdowns, since then making a series of higher lows and recently sustaining 15 months of expansionary readings.
China Caixin COMPOSITE PMI - Mar 2024
✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary)
⏳ April Figures released today (pending)
THIS IS THE SUBJECT CHART AT OUTSET
▫️ Increased from 50 in Oct 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024
▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures for April are released on today Monday 6th April 2024.
✅The Caixin Composite PMI has remained expansionary for 5 consecutive months (Nov 2023 – Mar 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 similar to Manufacturing and Services PMI charts above. Looking at the composite chart, one can see that we moving sideways since Dec 2023 (Dec 52.6, Jan 52.5, Feb 52.5 & Mar 52.7). We are comfortably in the expansionary green zone on the composite.
In Summary
(subject to tomorrow’s readings for the Services and Composite PMI but we assume expansionary)
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
↗️ Expansionary
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April 2024 rose to 51.4, marking the sixth straight month of expansion and the fastest growth since February 2023
China Caixin Services PMI
↗️ Expansionary
As of March 2024, the Caixin Services PMI increased slightly to 52.7, indicating growth in the services sector for the 15th consecutive month
(April 2024 Figures Release Today)
China Caixin COMPOSITE PMI
↗️ Expansionary
The Composite PMI reached 52.7 in March 2023, the highest since May 2023, showing the fifth consecutive month of growth in overall private sector activity.
(April 2024 Figures Release Today)
All the above readings suggest a continued expansion across China’s services and manufacturing sectors, reflecting improvements in demand and business activity across the SME cohort.
All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful
Lets get after it again this week 💪🏻
PUKA
