Bitcoin continues to trace out a consolidation pattern above the long-term uptrend line. I believe this due to a simple price action and volume analysis. Often, keeping it simple works best. Given my analysis, I believe that until proven otherwise this pullback from the all-time highs is just that, a pullback/consolidation. I expect bitcoin to retest and exceed the previous high of $20,000 after it completes this consolidation.
As far as timing, the current pattern cannot continue into July. Therefore, I see four scenarios that could play out:
1) Bitcoin breaks out from the current consolidation pattern before the end of July, ie. triangle breakout, and we move up to retest the December 2017 highs sometime between August and December 2018. I'm assigning a probability to this scenario of 50%.
2) Bitcoin's price action morphs into a different consolidation pattern that will take more time to play out and we retest the long-term uptrend line before choosing a direction. In my opinion, the bull market will continue after this retest. I'm assigning a probability to this scenario of 30%.
3) Bitcoin breaks down before the end of July and rapidly retest and/or breaks below the long-term uptrend line. This would signal a larger bear market is in play and a likely retest of the $1,000 area. I'm assigning a probability to this scenario of 10%.
4) Some other scenario that I have not covered will take place. I'm assigning a probability to this scenario of 10%.
As far as timing, the current pattern cannot continue into July. Therefore, I see four scenarios that could play out:
1) Bitcoin breaks out from the current consolidation pattern before the end of July, ie. triangle breakout, and we move up to retest the December 2017 highs sometime between August and December 2018. I'm assigning a probability to this scenario of 50%.
2) Bitcoin's price action morphs into a different consolidation pattern that will take more time to play out and we retest the long-term uptrend line before choosing a direction. In my opinion, the bull market will continue after this retest. I'm assigning a probability to this scenario of 30%.
3) Bitcoin breaks down before the end of July and rapidly retest and/or breaks below the long-term uptrend line. This would signal a larger bear market is in play and a likely retest of the $1,000 area. I'm assigning a probability to this scenario of 10%.
4) Some other scenario that I have not covered will take place. I'm assigning a probability to this scenario of 10%.
Trade active:
The trade is still active as the consolidation continues.
Trade active:
The trade is still active as the consolidation continues.
Trade active:
The consolidation continues, however, trading is beginning to look more constructive. I have been adding to my position over the last week, especially yesterday and today.
Trade active:
The breakout I've been speaking about, pattern shown in the charts above, has finally happened on #bitcoin. Should this turn out to be a true breakout, the first minor target area we should pay attention to is $8,000. The first major target area is in the $10,000 range.
Comment:
I forgot to post the chart in the previous post.
Trade active:
The #bitcoin breakout we waited months for, as it consolidated in its wedge formation, is continuing to move higher. After breaking resistance at the June highs, I now expect a retest of the $10,000 level (highlighted in yellow).