Is BTC Used as a Speculative Bet or a Viable Currency?
The way most people speak about BTC and the things they do with it seem far more in line with me with a speculative bet than a viable currency.
Here's some examples;
I've never been told, "Accept BTC via payment gateways, or you'll miss out big".
I'm always told I should, "Buy BTC or I'll miss out big".
And this is correctly framed because I've had BTC as an option for a payment method on anything that has no big overheads for me for about y10ears now. During this time I've collected under 1.5 BTC (Did a lot of volume in $ turnover). While this may sound like some reasonable $ value turnover, the bulk of this was 1 BTC sent to me at $400.
If I was to remove BTC as a payment option from all my payment gateways, it'd not affect me. If I was to remove USD and make it BTC only, the businesses would fold within a few months.
I'm never told to buy and spend BTC
I get a lot of unsolicited investment advice from BTC bulls but they never tell me how I should be buying BTC to use it as a currency. That's never happened, not once.
I'm todl I need to hodl BTC.
Now, I'm a Forex trader. I have discussions with people where they tell me I should buy and hold currencies. They're always conversations about speculation. "Buy and hold Yen, I think it's going to boom". These people are not bestowing on me the benefits of the Yen vrs the base currency, they're just telling me they think it'll be a winning bet.
BTC has no predictable "Store of Value" properties.
I'm commonly told I should buy BTC because the USD (Or whatever my base currency is) is subject to systematic devaluation via inflation and that means it's not a good store of value. This is an fair point but at least my devaluation of currency is highly predictable. Even if it's as high as 10% a year, I know about it.
I have no idea if BTC is 10% higher or lower than it was when I started writing this post. To say BTC is a store of value ignores what this is meant to be. A store of value means the spending power will remain quite stable. I can by the same amount of things I want in the future. Not sometimes can buy a lot more and other times a lot less.
This isn't a store of value, it's a floating speculative bet.
The volatility profile of BTC makes it unviable for most business
I have BTC as a payment option on things that do not cost me or have big overheads. I can't do it with anything that has costs on my end.
For example, let's say I buy a nice car to re-sell and I pay $60,000 for it. Right at this moment in time if I sold it for 1 BTC I'd get $73,000 in USD terms. A decent profit margin but I only get to lock in my profit margin if I quickly get rid of the BTC. Otherwise, I gamble on the future price moves of BTC. I've no idea if I'll make a win or loss on the deal.
The only way for me to make this a viable deal to do is to instantly convert my BTC to my preferred base fiat currency or convert it to a stable coin which is pegged to the USD. So if I am going to be doing transitions tied to the USD anyway, why not deal in the USD? Why take on the extra risk of stable coin arbs failing or exchanges going under?
The conditions for BTC to be a currency goes against what BTC bulls want
It's quite ironic in a sense. What's needed for BTC to be a viable currency is for it to take up some sort of predictable range against major currencies and for people to not hoard it but instead to spend it. Then we'd have the ability to transact in it with an understandable risk and we'd have people who want to do business in BTC.
No one is going to avoid spending their BTC so they don't "Miss out big". Think about how silly that statement sounds. "Here's the best money there is. It won't be spent to you so you should buy it and hold it or you'll miss out big". That statement makes a lot more sense if you remove the word "Money" and replace it with "Bet".
This is what's needed for it to be a viable currency, but when do you ever see people promoting BTC saying, "This is going to go into a predictable range and people will transact in it more".
I never see that. It's always going to the moon because everyone will hodl.
And these are not things people say about currencies.
They say it about speculative bets.
Will it be a good speculative bet or not? This is an unknown variable. But the idea people buying BTC now are doing so to part take in the use of the currency is provably false. You can see it yourself in the things said. People are never saying things relating to using the currency, they're always saying things related to speculating on its future price against the USD.
Here's some examples;
I've never been told, "Accept BTC via payment gateways, or you'll miss out big".
I'm always told I should, "Buy BTC or I'll miss out big".
And this is correctly framed because I've had BTC as an option for a payment method on anything that has no big overheads for me for about y10ears now. During this time I've collected under 1.5 BTC (Did a lot of volume in $ turnover). While this may sound like some reasonable $ value turnover, the bulk of this was 1 BTC sent to me at $400.
If I was to remove BTC as a payment option from all my payment gateways, it'd not affect me. If I was to remove USD and make it BTC only, the businesses would fold within a few months.
I'm never told to buy and spend BTC
I get a lot of unsolicited investment advice from BTC bulls but they never tell me how I should be buying BTC to use it as a currency. That's never happened, not once.
I'm todl I need to hodl BTC.
Now, I'm a Forex trader. I have discussions with people where they tell me I should buy and hold currencies. They're always conversations about speculation. "Buy and hold Yen, I think it's going to boom". These people are not bestowing on me the benefits of the Yen vrs the base currency, they're just telling me they think it'll be a winning bet.
BTC has no predictable "Store of Value" properties.
I'm commonly told I should buy BTC because the USD (Or whatever my base currency is) is subject to systematic devaluation via inflation and that means it's not a good store of value. This is an fair point but at least my devaluation of currency is highly predictable. Even if it's as high as 10% a year, I know about it.
I have no idea if BTC is 10% higher or lower than it was when I started writing this post. To say BTC is a store of value ignores what this is meant to be. A store of value means the spending power will remain quite stable. I can by the same amount of things I want in the future. Not sometimes can buy a lot more and other times a lot less.
This isn't a store of value, it's a floating speculative bet.
The volatility profile of BTC makes it unviable for most business
I have BTC as a payment option on things that do not cost me or have big overheads. I can't do it with anything that has costs on my end.
For example, let's say I buy a nice car to re-sell and I pay $60,000 for it. Right at this moment in time if I sold it for 1 BTC I'd get $73,000 in USD terms. A decent profit margin but I only get to lock in my profit margin if I quickly get rid of the BTC. Otherwise, I gamble on the future price moves of BTC. I've no idea if I'll make a win or loss on the deal.
The only way for me to make this a viable deal to do is to instantly convert my BTC to my preferred base fiat currency or convert it to a stable coin which is pegged to the USD. So if I am going to be doing transitions tied to the USD anyway, why not deal in the USD? Why take on the extra risk of stable coin arbs failing or exchanges going under?
The conditions for BTC to be a currency goes against what BTC bulls want
It's quite ironic in a sense. What's needed for BTC to be a viable currency is for it to take up some sort of predictable range against major currencies and for people to not hoard it but instead to spend it. Then we'd have the ability to transact in it with an understandable risk and we'd have people who want to do business in BTC.
No one is going to avoid spending their BTC so they don't "Miss out big". Think about how silly that statement sounds. "Here's the best money there is. It won't be spent to you so you should buy it and hold it or you'll miss out big". That statement makes a lot more sense if you remove the word "Money" and replace it with "Bet".
This is what's needed for it to be a viable currency, but when do you ever see people promoting BTC saying, "This is going to go into a predictable range and people will transact in it more".
I never see that. It's always going to the moon because everyone will hodl.
And these are not things people say about currencies.
They say it about speculative bets.
Will it be a good speculative bet or not? This is an unknown variable. But the idea people buying BTC now are doing so to part take in the use of the currency is provably false. You can see it yourself in the things said. People are never saying things relating to using the currency, they're always saying things related to speculating on its future price against the USD.
Comment:
It should not be hard to get someone to debate you with both people agreeing on the fact, "The future is unknown".
But its proven to be literally fuking impossible.
But its proven to be literally fuking impossible.
Comment:
Here's why currency hoarding is a bad thing and the problem with the theory "Bitcoin has no top".
Comment:
The more I engage with BTC bulls the more I think this is the very definition of a speculative bubble.
Based on the concept of sanity.