XBTFX

Bitcoin: exhausted upside?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
BTC had another volatile week, which ended with a weekly drop in price of around 2%. However, before that, BTC reached a brand new all-time-highest level at $73.4K. It was unclear what actually happened during Friday`s trading session. On one side there was a release of relatively negative data for the US inflation, where investors needed to reconsider their currently open positions, considering that increased inflation means that Fed will most probably hold interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time from previously expected. On the other side, it should be considered that ATH`s usually trigger sell-off of speculative positions aimed to lock trading positions in a profit. On a third side it should be considered that a lot of futures positions have been liquidated due to a drop in the price of BTC. Analysts are noting here a figure of $800 million in liquidations. Considering that analysis is not showing any sort of large lot on the market which moved the market to the downside, it seems that the latest drop was influenced by the combination of above mentioned triggers. However, it should be mentioned that usually on all markets, not only on the crypto market, a strong push to the one side usually triggers a bit stronger correction to the opposite side. That is the classical market behavior. Still, some are noting that this might be a good buying opportunity, like for example, MicroStrategy.

As of Friday`s trading session the RSI moved from the overbought zone toward the level of 58. The indicator is still holding above 50, which is an indication that the market is still not ready to start the path toward the oversold territory. The moving average of 50 days continues to diverge from MA200 still not indicating that the potential cross is in store, and with it the change of the trend.

At this point charts are looking like the market is on some sort of strong hold, implying a question: where to trade next? Is it time for a stronger correction, or there is still space for another move to the upside? There are currently two possibilities: a dip buyers might start another move to the upside, or, the market will turn to test the $ 65K support line. A move toward the lower grounds is also possible, but only a short one. BTC needs to find a new equilibrium level, which might occur during the week ahead.

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