cerealtrades

cerealtrades Updated 

when we cross this vwma, and the level of .618 retracement doesnt hold uvxy drops really big really fast. algos could flip bear at any moment, but there is bound to be at least one bounce worth noting between here and $12

cerealtrades

futures are chaotic. they induce a neutralising affectt on the influence of volume on price. consider the following: a pile of wood blocks stacked neatly together has a lower available energy. if you set fire to it, its gping to take a long time to burn, and might go out only part way burnt. if you put tiny spaces between the blocks it creates the perfect room to...

cerealtrades Updated 

i dont want to jump the gun, and it looks like a pretty messy way to break a downtrend, but it still seems like we could find higher prices by next week the way things are going. its a mess of a chart, but 36832 and 37000 are remaining strong support it seems and as long as we keep closing 4hrs above these levels and we get over 37555 (great number) i dont see a...

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if we stay above the .25 and remain in this channel, we could be led to another touch of the .382 if we confirm a bear flag on the 15 minute or continue lower immediately i would think we are in for a trip to the bottom of the channel. 148or so if we beat the 5 minute high, set a higher low and confirm id imagine were due for a trip to the top of the channel. 139...

cerealtrades

XLF is one of the instruments whose sectore had a larger terminal upthrust than others, and is enjoying a more sizeable bounce than others after the current peak in volatility. big names like V, PYPL and BAC are putting up enoughbof a struggle to say that they have tolerance to attract inflow from key players (sm, mm, tutes, pros). it will be interesting to see if...

cerealtrades

when an overweight sector corrects with the market volatility is higher in general, but thats why it bounces so much more quickly and outperforms other sectors in the same trend. sector rotation will have a play in healthcare if we find a higher low, and bulls have given themselves room to complete that reversal. we should make a higher low somewhere, even if its...

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reverse head and shoulders may prove defensive sector stocks may be putting in a bottom. these may do well over the weekend as pros, sm, mm, tutues, and some retail may look to these to provide value when rotation is taking money out of growth. target 33.33 and 33.97 stop loss 32.89 as this would mean a probable touch of bottom anchored vwap band after a break of...

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just as spx is in a buy sided tightening range top, vix is in a sell sided tightening range bear. referto the below chart for that pattern on the 1 minute if UVXY cant break this range bull then broader markets remain a buy as long as vix puts keep piling in if we make a lower high and continue down this is a solid confirmation of bear vix

cerealtrades Updated 

this is simple. were at the major resistance in nasdaq furures. if we stay over the .382 of fib trend extend we will probably bull flag, and this could mean we see the 0 of that pattern quite soon (around $55.94) stop loss around 52.89 as this would mean we need a retest of major support.

cerealtrades Updated 

if we fail the double top, and break 18.34 confirming a downtrend with a lower high, or immediately continue bear vix, im fine with selling volatility here. if we immediately continue over 19.17, or we set a higher low over the .382 of the bounce and break the high i would stay long vix for the time being if multiple sectors are continuing to make new lows...

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we are at a critical level in UVXY where oscillators like rsi are making a same low while the price has decreased somewhat.

cerealtrades Updated 

its not much of an uptrend, but the daily is enjoying a sizeable bounce so far, qnd im looking for this to continue into noon or maybe 1pm. the RHS i have mapped out was not obvious until this morning as we did not clearly break the downtrend with our right shoulder. normally this invalidates the pattern, but ive seen enough buying this morning to make it clear to...

cerealtrades Updated 

uvxy is trading around the .618 of extension. we are low enough to say that vix shorts are most likely covering, but we have retraced enough to say a lower high is likely as well. targets are 18.54 and 15.82 as long as were keep closing 15 minutes above 17.69 i would be long, and expect the downtrend to continue as long as we keep closing below 19

cerealtrades Updated 

if you zoom out and really think about it we havent held a downtrend for long enough to say a broader bear market taking years to regain. even if it lasts less than 9 days, we have always bounced at accumulation levels such as this even during corona and the following recession. im not saying trust this as the bottom, but there is long money willing to make bull,...

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i really want to stress that i am not saying the daily/weekly trend is going to change right back to bull. with that said, i think there is money to be made long over the next week, as long as futures sunday dont have the craziest bear session since corona. some shorts are going to cover on the next drop, and this is going to cause a small squeeze. i dont think...

cerealtrades Updated 

fib trend extend says the hourly picture could still be bullish for the dollar, but continued resistance around the 95.8 area, and continued support around the 95.4 area is likely. this should mean cheaper prices for stocks, but i dont imagine the fed can keep its finger off the printer button for long. a break above or below the horizontal lines and 4 hr close...

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bonds have been playing along with the aggressive selling in equities so far, but that looks as if it may be about to change for the near term. if risk off/conservative sentiment were really back in force for broader markets we would see government bond yield continuing to increase as the market drops. what the ten year has been telling me for the past week is...

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its not that i think we cant see more puts, but every time weve seen a put/call ratio over 1.2 in the recent past it has been short lived. my theory is essentially that a lot of assets have seen class specific or weight targeted pullbacks from mostly unexpected spikes that have brought down broader markets with increased levels of puts to calls. as outflows are...