The 2007-2008 decline was impulsive. The recovery back to marginal new Highs took over 9 years and is corrective. I believe we may see more declines in the coming 6-9 months to test 21,500 level which is a confluence of A=C legs and is 78% of the rally from 2016 low.
Yes I know I am not going to win the popularity stakes among the equity permabulls for this post/view but here it is. I see 5 waves higher from March 2009 finished at Jan 2018 TOP (all time high). Since then 3 wave correction down in wave A (or W) and three wave rally back up in wave B (or X). It looks to me like we are missing a big leg lower - either as wave C...
As posted previously regarding SMH, here is another look at SEMICONDUCTORS via the SOX. Semiconductor stocks have PEAKED after a major bull run (from a minimum of 2009 and possibly a lot longer 20-30yrs...this could be the end of a SUPERCYCLE). There is a fairly picturesque Elliott Wave count in play which suggests we are heading for a MINIMUM pullback of 40% and...
Technically picturesque EW count....this is the END of a MAJOR CYCLE from at least 2009 if not the last 20+ years. A DECLINE of at LEAST 40% is on the cards over the coming 12-18 months. CAVEAT EMPTOR.....
I picked XLNX as an example but there are literally hundreds of other similarly egregiously valued stocks in this bizarre, hideously manipulated false market. Going back 30 years the last two times XLNX stock was this over bought >80 on RSI (blue boxes in bottom pane) we had either small negative performance (-10 to -20%) over following 2-3 years or huge negative...
Update to USD chart posted a while back.... break up and close above 97.5 on DXY will suggest a move to 100-101 short to med term
Looks like a reasonable short at 1.33-1.34 despite prospect of a delayed #BREXIT after last weeks multiple votes. If we have finished an abc corrective wave 2 (with c being an ending diagonal) then we are about to go down quickly in a wave 3
I am not much of a s/term trader (my inv horizon is weeks.....) but if pressed I would have to say there is a good risk reward to being short around 11480/11500 with a stop around 11580 and a target 11100 over coming days.
I keep getting drawn back to this long term chart of the Dutch AEX index. It still looks like a beautiful 5 wave EW pattern up from the 2009 lows with ideal wave relationships/Fib retraces and extensions. Suggests that we are likely about to roll over again and head lower (minimum -20% maybe much more) in a wave C or 3 down.
Indian stock market has a completed 5 wave pattern from the 2016 low. First impulse lower followed by corrective rally since late October looks to also be complete. Now awaiting breakdown (below 10300 good indication). Offers decent risk/reward trade off - short 10800, stop 11400, target at least 1000 points lower perhaps even as low as 8250.
When the channel breaks look out below - for Boeing and the wider market
Massive confluence of resistance in the Xetra Dax just above 11,500 so this would be a great reversal zone for shorts 1. Underside of multi month H+S top neckline (red sloping line) 2. Downtrend resistance line since 2018 (black sloping line) 3. c= 0.618x wave a in a simple 3 leg correction up from the Xmas lows
Equity permabulls desperately clinging to s/t uptrend on NDX....may make one more attempt at 7100 but below 7030 and it should be all she wrote
resistance overhead at 54-55 zone looking for sub 25$ tgt sometime next 12-18 months