The market is eagerly anticipating the release of non-farm payrolls, projected to grow by 198,000, compared to January's increase of 353,000. A lower-than-expected figure could potentially push the EUR/USD pair higher, as the market has been on a steady ascent since mid-February. Currently, it has surpassed the 55 and 200-day moving averages at 1.0873/33, which...
US stocks hit a record high on Friday, driven by strong performance in artificial intelligence companies like Nvidia. However, caution is warranted as the Nasdaq shows signs of losing upward momentum, with daily and weekly RSI indicating divergence. This week, markets will be closely watching inflation data, including euro zone consumer confidence, business...
The US 10-year Treasury yield is currently encountering significant resistance at the levels of 4.335 and 4.36, marked by peaks observed in 2022 and August 2023. This resistance zone also aligns with the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. There are indications that the market is exerting considerable pressure at this juncture: price action is...
We've employed a blend of point and figure analysis along with Fibonacci extensions, incorporating a resistance line to pinpoint levels between 5040-5100. With each successive high, we've noted a diminishing strength in the RSI indicator, suggesting a potential stall in the upward movement within the 5040-5100 range. Within this zone, we've identified around four...
Friday's robust U.S. jobs report bolstered the US Dollar, prompting the Euro to plummet to its lowest level in eight weeks. The current focus lies on potential downward movements, with key support levels identified at the 15-month uptrend around 1.0740 and the December 2023 low near 1.0724. The weak sell signal observed on the Directional Movement Index (DMI)...
We're examining the US Treasury Note in anticipation of the Fed meeting. The market seems to have finished a corrective pattern ('a-b-c') and is currently facing resistance from the 55-day and 200-day moving averages. This puts it in a defensive position prior to the meeting. The central bank is widely anticipated to maintain interest rates, but the spotlight will...
USD/PLN is pretty interesting from a technical point of view, it has held over its 10-year uptrend at 3.85, held over support on a weekly closing basis from January 2022 on the weekly chart AND completed an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart, with an approx. upside measured target to 4.14. Each of these indicators individually would suggest a...
I got his one completely wrong recently - but the advantage of using technical analysis lies in having a perspective and a predetermined stop. This approach effectively nullifies our prior pessimistic outlook, which was based on divergence and failure at old highs. At present, we can reasonably assume that the market is still in a bullish trend. The surge in...
A plethora of economic data from China has unveiled a tepid recovery, leaving investors unimpressed. This disappointment follows prior unease caused by central bankers adopting a hawkish tone, challenging the prevailing narrative of early rate cuts. Concerns surrounding attacks in the Red Sea have revived worries about potential disruptions to the supply chain and...
Technically we have failed at the 200-week ma at 1.1150 recently and have now broken below a short term uptrend from October 2023, all of which suggest attention is likely to be on support levels, and we would allow for some further weakness. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice...
Let's delve into a significant pattern observed this week on the Dax weekly chart – the key week reversal. As the name implies, this pattern signifies a reversal in the market trend. It typically emerges following a robust preceding trend, as we've witnessed in this case, characterized by a strong upward movement. A key week reversal occurs when the market charts...
Unveiling the High-Stakes Dance of US Inflation and the 10-Year Yield: Critical Levels and Market Anticipation" A slew of US inflation data is scheduled for release on Friday, prompting our attention towards the US 10-year yield. Initially holding ground at 3.79, it has recently broken its short-term downtrend and is undergoing an upward correction. The market has...
Bitcoin has surged beyond a symmetrical triangle, hinting at a potential target around 48500. This aligns well with the March 2022 high of 48475, marking an initial upward goal. Moreover, there's room for further growth if we consider the prior rally as a flagpole and the recent consolidation as a midpoint, indicating potential for Bitcoin to advance even...
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday indicated that its interest-rate hiking cycle has ended and that lower borrowing costs are coming in 2024. This was more dovish than the market anticipated and the US 10Y yield has sold off further. The short-term downtrend lies at 4.22% and while below here we will assume that the US 10Y yield remains under pressure. We would also...
The dollar index rose on Friday after unexpectedly firm U.S. jobs data and Michigan sentiment sent Treasury yields flying as traders pruned bets on rapid Fed rate cuts next year, with focus now turning to next week's inflation reports and Fed's final 2023 meeting. Tuesday we have the UK unemployment rate. Together with US Core inflation AND CPI. The BOE Interest...
Much has been said over the weekend regarding gold's move higher and we have taken a look at this this morning. First point to make is that we have 2 major levels of resistance - the first is the old high at 2070 and the second is the top of a major up channel that extends back to 2011, this is located at 2106 and only a close above here would indicate potential...
We recently talked about EUR/USD's target of 1.0950, this has now been met - so what now? A lot of data out this week - so we need a view and a stop! My analysis indicates that we remain in an up move, indicators are positive. We are above the cloud on the hourly, daily and weekly charts - you have to assume upside scope remains intact while above its uptrend...
We have a busy week this week as we have lots of data on big economies that should provide insights on inflation and activity – namely the US consumer confidence, PCE price index, PMIs, European CPI, German consumer confidence and Chinese PMI. The US 10Y yield has been correcting lower over the past few weeks but we suspect it has based just ahead of the key...