SquishTrade

SquishTrade

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Looking outside the Scope of Trend: To Peek or Not to Peek “The trend is your friend until the end when it bends.” - Ed Seykota Trend analysis lies at the core of technical analysis. Modern technical analysis derived from Dow Theory. In turn, Dow Theory emphasized the nature and importance of trends and their constituent parts and...

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PRIMARY CHART: S&P 500 (SPX) with VIX/VIX3M ratio in subgraph on a weekly time frame Tricks for Reading the VIX Part I SquishTrade's original 2022 article on VIX entitled "Tricks for Reading the VIX" covered the basic concepts of the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) to aid in understanding and interpreting VIX and its behavior relative to the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX )....

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Understanding VIX Generally VIX measures the pricing of at-the-money options on the S&P 500 SP:SPX FOREXCOM:SPXUSD where such options have about 30 days until expiration. Higher VIX readings mean that demand for at-the-money options on SPX has risen through hedging or bearish positioning (usually both)—meaning that fear and uncertainty has arisen along with...

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Primary Chart : 195m chart of major US index, the S&P 500 represented by the SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust, with symmetrical triangle pattern and anchored VWAPs SquishTrade has posted fewer analyses lately as markets have been quite uncertain and choppy. When there is less certainty in the analysis, there should be less to say. And prudence dictates avoiding confusion...

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Primary Chart: BTC's Long-Term Upward Trendline that Has Held as Support since 2013 (Weekly Log Chart) BTC Appears to be holding right at a long-term trendline that has held as strong support since 2013. The chart above is a logarithmic chart, which can help present a more accurate perspective of price action and price relationships when the chart covers a...

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Primary Chart: Tips to Help Demystify the RSI Introduction to Momentum Indicators Many indicators exist for technical analysis. And a number of them focus on momentum, which is distinguishable from other core technical concepts such as trend, support and resistance, volatility, and standard deviation. Momentum tools measure the velocity of a directional...

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A few months ago, SquishTrade wrote a bearish technical analysis on TSLA that forecasted a drop to a series of targets that were all reached. TSLA's downward move was more violent and rapid than anyone may have expected. Indeed, TSLA broke down from a huge head-and-shoulders pattern. Supplementary Chart A is the head and shoulders pattern that broke through its...

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Primary Chart: S&P 500 represented by AMEX:SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF trust, an ETF traded on ARCA and NYSE) SUMMARY US equity markets may continue to trap bears and bulls alike in the coming weeks and months on the short-term to intermediate-term timeframes. SPY / SPX may rally in the coming days and weeks into April 2023. Such a rally makes sense from a...

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Primary Chart: Logarithmic Chart with 13-Year Secular Uptrend Defined by Parallel Channel BRIEF SUMMARY: The secular uptrend over the past 13 years is still valid and contains within its boundaries the current bear market, which is at the primary trend level. SPX's price has fallen past the midpoint of the channel. Two weekly closes have been below the...

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Regardless of whether you are a bear or a bull, BTCUSD will probably take the scenic route. This may sound like max pain theory, and it probably is. One follower asked recently for an update on BTC. My last BTC post called for another push higher before going lower. A the time that was published, BTC traded in the upper $18000s and the downward TL (log scale) was...

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Which Way Will the SPX Triangle Break? Consider All the Arguments Ever since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 SP:SPX has been consolidating especially when considered on larger time frames like daily and weekly. This consolidation has formed what is known as a triangle pattern (or symmetrical triangle). A triangle is a consolidation pattern that represents...

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Primary Chart: DXY Daily Chart with Upward Trendline, Downward Trendline and Fibonacci Levels Dollar strength starting in early 2021 lasted until the fall of 2022. It was nothing short of impressive. But DXY (the dollar measured against a basket of five other major currencies) started topping in September 2022 and then began making lower lows and lower highs,...

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Price action in broader US equities—the S&P 500 SP:SPX and the Nasdaq NASDAQ:NDX in particular—has been tricky over the past few months since the October 2022 lows. SPX for example rallied off the 2022 lows into early December 2022 and it staged a false breakout above the bear market's most predictable trendline, the down trendline from all-time highs. The...

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Primary Chart: Daily Time Frame, 8-D and 21-D EMAs, Long-Term Fibonacci Levels (Retracements of META's Entire Range), Uptrend from Nov. 4, 2022 Low SUMMARY: META remains in a severe downtrend since its all-time high in September 2021. The primary-degree trendline remains unbroken and in effect. A shorter down trendline for most of 2022 has been broken...

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Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN has been responding to higher terminal rate expectations, which have risen dramatically in the past month. In December 2022 and January 2023, the August Fed Funds futures contract previously showed a terminal rate of approximately 4.70%. And the consensus had adopted the view of significant rate cuts into year end 2023. Now, that has changed,...

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UBER, a platform that provides ride hailing, food delivery, and package delivery as a service, started its downtrend before the major US equity indices. UBER's all-time high occurred on February 10, 2021, almost exactly two years ago. UBER proceeded to carve out lower highs and lower lows for quite some time afterwards, the very definition of a downtrend. But it...

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Primary Chart: Weekly Chart of MSFT Showing Down Trendline, 200-Week SMA, Key VWAPs and Fibonacci Levels Microsoft Reaches a State of Equilibrium within Its Downtrend Equilibrium means "a state of balance." Equilibrium has been reached precisely because MSFT is holding above long-term support, and below its primary downtrend resistance levels. It also has...

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Primary Chart: ETHUSD on a 2D Time Frame The Primary Chart shows ETH's major down trendlines over the past 14 months. The first down trendline (magenta) remains effective and has contained price since the all-time high in November 2021. The second down trendline (gold) has been broken. The anchored VWAP from the all-time high (teal) is currently at $2230. ...