Ben_1148x2

Ben_1148x2

One of the key principles of Dow Theory is that indices must confirm each other. Specifically, upward movement in industrials needs to be confirmed by transports. For a trend to be valid, both the DJIA and DJTA should move in the same direction. If both indices are making new highs or new lows simultaneously, it confirms the overall trend (bullish or bearish)....

Ben_1148x2

Energy does not look good right now. XLE+XOP has an inverse correlation to the gold/oil ratio. The two only move into neutral and positive correlations for brief periods before one of them changes direction. Additionally, when the gold/oil ratio crosses 30 we’ve seen energy prices begin to fall to more extreme lows. The technicals above indicate gold is...

Ben_1148x2

TVC:GOLD had a great retest of the 0.382. and momentum is signaling a move higher. I like profit taking at a retest of 2430, at a measured move to 2497, and at 2535-2580.

Ben_1148x2

VIX Keltner and regression channels, along with VIX/VIX3M and the trend index of VIX and the S&P indicate we've reached a local low. TVC:VIX SP:SPX CBOE:VIX3M

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:IBM opens with an island top. The last time that it had bearish divergences into a 52w high it drew down 20% over 100 sessions. airgap to the 160-165 range aligns to the 0.618. The next airgap to 150 aligns to the 0.786.

Ben_1148x2

AMEX:XLP regained its YTD and MTD anchored volume weighted average price, as well as the VWAP anchored to the 3/21/24 FOMC meeting. Momentum is turning sharply upward and most major moving averages are in a productive relationship to one another and price. Additionally, XLP/SPX is showing a potential reversal toward relative strength. It's crossed above the MA...

Ben_1148x2

VIX volatility index shown with the S&P, with the VIX divided by the 3 month VIX, Keltner bands, and a regression channel drawn from the March 2022 high of the VIX. For those that aren’t familiar, the VIX is an expectation of volatility based on S&P options. It can be used to forecast a change in price that can go in either direction. The range that the VIX moves...

Ben_1148x2

NASDAQ:COST with Martin Pings KST "know sure thing" indicator, which uses a composite of 4 smoothed rates of change to identify changes in trend. Shown here with a Chaikin oscillator (accumulation/distribution). If we were to enter and exit the day after a cross over the worst case outcome over the past 3 years was 1.5% return in August 2023.

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:AMT is testing the 0.786 level from the last swing high. Failure to hold makes it more likely that we continue lower. The pattern is very similar to Justin Mamis sentiment cycle. If the current level fails to hold, a scenario completing this cycle would likely align to the concentration of volume between 136-145, and to the 1.272-1.414 fib retrace. If...

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:ABBV is a great company. It's part of my long-term portfolio and is one that I've been able to manage well with technical analysis. I am not adding unless I see price fall to 155 or until we get to August/September where it hits its seasonal low. This drawdown has risk of continuation for a number of reasons: Momentum was falling as price was rising....

Ben_1148x2

KRAKEN:TIAUSD had a great run in the second half of 2023 but has cooled off in 2024. I've kept it on my watch list for future opportunities and it's had very predictable movement throughout this fib fan. The current declining price diverges with the composite index, price momentum oscillator, and detrend oscillator. Previously this has led to at least a minor...

Ben_1148x2

BINANCE:JTOUSDT is one to keep watching this cycle. First target reached for this trade. Next will be ~4.07, then ~4.50 target.

Ben_1148x2

BINANCE:XRPUSD has VWAPs anchored to recent highs and lows squeezing. These are aligning very cleanly to two fib time zones drawn from significant uptrends and downtrends. Whichever direction it breaks should continue to the next support/resistance range

Ben_1148x2

KRAKEN:LTCUSD is showing an inverted head and shoulders. I'd like to see it clear the VWAP anchored to the prior high before getting excited.

Ben_1148x2

KRAKEN:LDOUSD is showing a similar structure to KRAKEN:BADGERUSD , which just saw a 35% move. If entering here I would expect resistance at 3.15 (volume weighted average price anchored to the high of the most recent uptrend), ~3.69 (the measured range from the base of the pattern), and then between 4.01-4.30 as a possible overhead target. The opportunity is...

Ben_1148x2

UNIT. I'd like this one if we see a breakout and retest of this flag. Note that its treating the VWAP anchored to the March 2022 highs as support. When it was underneath this AVWAP its prior retraces drew down to the 0.618, making an entry at 5.44 another possible option.

Ben_1148x2 Updated 

CRYPTO:FETUSD Fetch appears to have completed an ABC correction. It established 0.48-0.56 as an area of support with the November-December consolidation and then retested that support during the corrective phase, hitting the VWAP anchored to the 10/23/23 breakout. It met overhead resistance at the VWAP anchored the the 12/26/23 prior high. Clearing and retesting...

Ben_1148x2

Breaking below the Bollinger bands warns of a possible reversal. This is a clear sign that the market is anxious about this weeks earnings. Prior breaks below can be found leading up to downside reversal in 2021.