Markets have survived another FOMC meeting, and volatility induced by their narrative. From initially planned three rate cuts during the course of this year, we have learned from Fed Chair Powell, that there will probably be only one rate cut this year. The markets have switched their attention on when this first pivoting might occur, with current estimates that...
Yields are currently in EW 4th wave correction, this should bottom by the end of 2Q for a sharp rally back to new highs end of year. 2025 will be the year of bear with a crash in all risk assets. Likely bottom near the golden fib @~2.5%. Risk assets also should follow this path along hand in hand. So bullish stocks until EOY after a brief correction in 2Q.
The 10Y US Treasuries reacted to jobs figures data posted on Friday. The data were somewhat mixed. On one side, unemployment for May showed an increase to 4.0% from 3.9% posted for the previous month. On the other hand, the non-farm payrolls with 272K jobs added, significantly surpassed market expectations of 190K. The market is expecting for the jobs market to...
And there they go! The 2Yr bounced right at the support level, AGAIN It is forming lower highs though. 10Yr #yield looks a bit weaker that its counterpart. TVC:TNX In reference to the #interestrate post after the one quoted... The weekly up trend is NO LONGER BROKEN! TVC:VIX not moving much, interesting.
GOOD MORNING! The 2Yr & 10Yr have broken the triangle pattern we posted on long ago. The TVC:TNX (10Yr) has gone lower compared to the 2Yr in the same time frame. Again, natural normalization is still out the window! What does this point to? Will fed do what they are good at & mess it up again? --- Now look @ the 10Yr on a weekly chart! AH HA! Are Bond...
It's been 3 months or so since the late March quarter bullish exuberance took the stock market, Ethereum (ETHUSD), Bitcoin (BTCUSD), other crypto assets to their new 52-week and all-time highs. This is now changing, while the stock market and cryptocurrency markets have stopped making new highs, despite the fact that Roaring Kitty is once again deafening everyone...
The 10Y US Treasuries exhibited some higher volatility during the previous week. Nervousness prior to the release of the PCE data was evident, when yields reached their highest weekly level at 4.62%. However, as the PCE was fully in line with the market expectations, yields cooled down a bit until the level of 4,50% for one more time. Shifts in investors...
During the uncertainty and risk off environment, low GDP data didn't come unnoticed and big boys accumulated some equities after the huge Salesforce panic. Today, with NASDAQ loosing almost 2% and 0.7% for SP500, DJ was accumulated, so I think we might see nice and strong reversal for the end of the week and month close. Play safe and good luck!
The 2Yr yield has paced itself recently. The 10Yr #yield is picking up steam. Both went from a bearish moving average crossover, circles, to a bullish (Data not seen here, more info in profile) 2Yr is almost @ last years bank failure rates. 10Yr has been trading mostly above. Weekly 2Yr looks like it wants to skyrocket, if breaking out of the ascending triangle...
From week to week investors are shaping the sentiment in line with the latest available data on the US inflation and probability of when the Fed might make its first rate cut during the course of this year. Expectations from the first quarter of this year are turned toward September, where the CME FedWatch Tool is now showing that traders are currently pricing...
Nvidia reported another blowout earnings report in its first-quarter results, and its stock is soaring to record highs above $1,000 per share on Thursday. The company reported revenue and profit that surpassed analyst estimates and offered second-quarter revenue guidance that was well ahead of Wall Street's expectations. On top of that, the company announced a...
The yields within the bond market are hinting towards a reversal in Gold and potentially other metals today, however, Gold right now is sitting at the HOP level of a Bearish Alt-Bat. If GLD were to reverse here, we would see it as a type 2 return which could result in Bearish price-Action beyond just the intra week but extended to the entire macro trend as a...
Gold prices traded higher midafternoon on Wednesday as a report showed US inflation is still high. Gold for June delivery was last seen up, again near US$2,400 per ounce. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday reported the April consumer-price index rose by 0.3% from March. Shelter, gas prices remain sticky. Notable call-outs from the inflation print...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below): Last week it tested the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support, for the first time since April 01 and held. As a result, we expect it to resume the Bullish Leg, the same way it did on July 19 2023...
Jamie Dimon Sees ‘Lot of Inflationary Forces in Front of Us’, as in recent interview to Bloomberg JPMorgan CEO has warned for months that rates could stay high. Jamie Dimon said he’s still more worried about inflation than markets appear to be. The JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief executive officer said significant price pressures continue to influence the US economy...
Investors are still weightening the latest inflation data posted during the previous week. Posted inflation figures were in line with the market estimate. Inflation rate reached 3.4% on a yearly basis, while core inflation eased to 3.6% in April. By putting it into a perspective of jobs data and consumer sentiment, inventors are perceiving that the first rate cut...
Crash Zone highlighted in Red. Fair warning is given as well; "Sell Sell Sell"
Inflation is finally cooling off as inflation gradually loosened its grip on Wall Street and the economy in 2023, raising hopes for a gentler Federal Reserve and further gains for the market in 2024. Stocks rallied to their best 9-weeks stripe over the past 20 years in November and December, 2023 (so-called 'Santa Rally') as investors raised their bets that the...