Since 2003, SILVER has spent less than 16 months under the 200 month moving average. That brief period mostly occurred right before COVID. A new bull run is starting IMHO.
The light blue line is the price of gold against M2 money supply in order to show it on the chart more easily. Mainly, take note of the highs on this line. The purple line represents returns on the 30 year treasury after removing loses from inflation. Inflation normalized returns. The blue line represents the return on GOLD. Namely, it maintains it's value...
Back in the early 80s, the US10Y gave a return of 8-10% more than inflation. Today, the US10Y gives a return of 5% below inflation. In bonds, you are still losing 5% each year. FEDFUNDS is still at zero, yields are rising slowly. Will the Fed do what they said they would do?
A higher FEDFUNDS rate (currently around 0%) causes higher rates on treasury yields. Here is our "effective rate" (ER) we pay on the national debt. Currently around 1.9% and 22% of tax receipts go to paying this interest. If ER goes above around 3%, interest payments are around 26% of US federal revenue. If ER goes above around 5%, interest payments are around...
This chart provides a clear "prediction" on tomorrow's Federal Interest payments (on the debt) which sits at a bit more than 20% of tax revenue. This chart uses the debt and the US10Y to show where payments are going. It's obviously very accurate but the problem is, the next move up is going to detrimental to US government solvency. Higher payments come with...
Normally, when inflation is high, the Federal Reserve will increase the FEDFUNDS rate which discourages banks borrowing money in order to fund investments. This in turn discourages lending and generally increases borrowing costs across the economy - including borrowing costs for the national debt. When you subtract it from the YoY inflation numbers, you can see...
This chart shows the difference between the percent of federal tax receipts used to pay interest on the national debt (currently around 20% of tax receipts) and the FEDFUNDS rate. This difference has been growing through the years as the debt grows larger and people are less willing to buy treasuries at low interest rates. Even with historically low interest rates...
This chart attempts to show the ratio between the percent of federal tax receipts used to pay interest on the national debt (currently around 20% of tax receipts) and the FEDFUNDS rate. This ratio has been growing through the years as the debt grows larger and people are less willing to buy treasuries at low interest rates. Even with historically low interest...
In 2005 breakout, we saw lower highs and higher lows, In 2009 breakout, we saw lower highs and higher lows. This didn't reach it's peak until 2011. What will come next with our current setup?
This is the historical breakout pattern for silver. In 2005 breakout, In addition, before the 2011 breakout, What would we expect to happen this time around?
I have a very hard time believing the dollar goes any higher despite what everyone is saying. The reasons are the arc (light green), the highs of the mid 90s ought to be higher than today, and the ascending channel we broke out of and are now back-testing will reject the ascending dollar. Unpopular opinion I am sure, but if not now, soon after rates are hiked,...
NKLA has settled it's legal problems. They have started delivering electric semis to customers. The customers like them. We see a falling wedge, with a hard resistance line showing the bottom. We see increasing PVT over with a falling stock price. People are starting to realize Nikola is delivering trucks. High volume day #2. The bull run will be epic. We'll hit...
Notice the buildup of high volume in the green. Increasing PVT, sellers are all out of the market. INPX will have a stellar 2022. Inverted head and shoulders concept is finishing up.
DXY has re-entered the ascending wedge that was support. My best guess is that we bounce off the 50 day MA and re-test resistance at top of wedge and see further downside. We'll encounter the 200 day MA by around March 2022. Rate hikes are already priced into the cake.
I believe we continue forming a bowl formation. The green and yellow lines being support. We are staying above the 200 day moving average for now. It seems to me that gold will trade sideways with a low of $1785 and a high of around $1830 until March 2022. By March timeframe we'll break through the blue line resistance and see more bullishness. This is not...
This is the first higher low on the PVT in silver after a high volume event. It's my opinion that it likely shows the selloff is over for the major institutions. They see it is now a buyers market. See after each drop (circled) it reaches a new lower low. But after the last one, we hit a higher low. I'm a buyer, but this is not financial advice.
We're in bullish accumulation. PVT is increasing over dropping price along with a higher low on RSI indicates future bullishness. Yesterday Inpixon announced increasing customer base by 55% in 2021. The news hasn't hit the masses yet.. Over the next week or so we should see $1.00 again. This is not financial advice but an observation.
Notice at the end of each descending wedge is a bull run. These cyclic wedge, runs are very observable. It seems to me we are near/at the bottom of a descending wedge. Soon, we'll reach another bull run likely bring us back to $50. Either the next one or the one after that (pictured) will break the historic pattern in the current range. That is, we'll see new...