ianrdouglas

ianrdouglas

I'm not a big fan of channels. I think they can distort our perceptions. Nonetheless, they're one way of viewing things. If we go with a channel-based analysis for a second, I thought this was interesting. I've been wondering why 60k has been such a barrier. It has been tapped more than a dozen times in the last month. But maybe it's less about that specific...

ianrdouglas Updated 

I'm applying the starting point at 7 October 2020, which was a fulcrum point in the push towards December, the break above the previous ATH, and the parabolic take-off that followed. Two things stand out: 1) The wave is losing energy. Doesn't mean it can't push further, and it almost certainly will. But it's slowing and reaching lower. 2) Interesting that we're...

ianrdouglas Updated 

This chart is a bit busy, but it's essentially an extrapolation built on top of my attempt to figure out where BTC will go in the immediate future. The TL;DR version is that we witnessed a major structural dip in BTC's trajectory throughout March, but that the wave might be picking up now, and subsequently reaching higher — both absolutely, but mainly relatively...

ianrdouglas Updated 

I've been wondering why BTC printed a lower high amid a series of higher lows. And I've been trying to piece together all the parts of my recent attempts (linked below) to analyse the BTC chart and discern what is happening and what may happen next. 1) Earlier, I posted a chart of a wedge with a breakout, and possible retest. I got spooked by the fakeout to the...

ianrdouglas Updated 

The lower high right now is my main question. After the next higher low, will BTC print another lower high? What would this mean, if so? Feel free to comment.

ianrdouglas Updated 

Okay. I'm trying to falsify the head and shoulders plus inverse head and shoulders combination I posted (linked below) that would suggest a near move by BTC down to 54.4. This the best I can currently come up with to suggest no major move to the downside, but rather a slow continuation to 64 and beyond in the near term. A few things to note about this chart: 1)...

ianrdouglas

Interesting that where BTC just did three taps is on a shared trend line that aligns with the correction after the upside impulse following the TSLA announcement, and also lands in the middle of the retracement rally following January's ATH.

ianrdouglas Updated 

This is honestly becoming ridiculous. 1) Not great that BTC met strong resistance at 59.5. 2) Now BTC appears to be stepping down the Fibonacci levels from yesterday's breakout impulse one by one. 3) It is broadly in an ascending wedge, which is a bearish formation. 4) Is BTC printing a head and shoulders formation? If so, the possible downside target is back...

ianrdouglas Updated 

Seeing this now thanks to a chart published by @Yuriy_Bishko He's not responsible for what I get wrong! So possible head and shoulders pattern within a larger inverse head and shoulders formation. In fact, the head and shoulders pattern, if it plays out, would form the right shoulder of the larger inverse formation. We've certainly seen this before, and...

ianrdouglas Updated 

I don't know if this illustrates a point, or negates one. I find it problematic that BTC has such a strong hold — in terms of price action — on nearly every other crypto asset. I think this is tremendously negative and dangerous for the cryptospace as a whole, and I don't see too many people identifying this problem and commenting on it. It's like an elephant in...

ianrdouglas

I thought this was interesting. This is the BTC parabolic wave from the perspective of Fibonacci fans, which chart lines of support and resistance between lows and highs and vice versa. I'm starting the fans on 11 December 2020, the beginning of the upside move that would lead to breaking the previous ATH, and setting the high on 62. We can see a few things...

ianrdouglas

No predictions. No claims. Just posting this because it's pretty. And fascinating.

ianrdouglas Updated 

This is not a projection, but more of an observation. I had my eye earlier on the doji printed on the daily 24 March, and was looking to see if BTC would retest this area. In the chart, the height of that candle is marked in purple, with a red line aligning with general structure. But investigating further, I start to wonder if this isn't a full correction...

ianrdouglas Updated 

As I said in my last post, I don't think we can put a great deal of weight on this indicator, and this chart is as low as the 45m. But for what it's worth ... "The trend is bullish." Yes, no doubt. See you at $52.4k. Hope you're in hedge mode!

ianrdouglas Updated 

May as well publish this. At least then I'll have a record of it. I've been wrong so many times these last two to three months. Thrown into a new world I never looked at before, late and panicked and trying to build, for my kids and for my brother, something of value that maybe cannot be taken away. Finally, before Christmas, I realise what Nakamoto intended....

ianrdouglas Updated 

I'm posting this with thanks to a friend who alerted me to the CME gaps. 1. On the BTC1! and BTC2! CME futures charts, there are two gaps between 26 and 29 March. These are marked in green and red on the chart above, with some overlap between them. 26 to 29 March was a key moment for BTC, especially if we understand the whole macro structure as forming in a...

ianrdouglas Updated 

It wouldn't matter but for the clear fact that when BTC drops it pulls 90% of the crypto market with it. It makes swing trading anything almost impossible. Is BTC still ascending, or did it break down? I'm in two minds as to how to view this from a chart perspective, even at the most basic level of drawing channels. Mixed signals in many other respects. If BTC...

ianrdouglas Updated 

I'd be interested to hear from experienced technical analysts on this chart. I'm a novice and wrong-footed often by the market, but we keep learning and will die learning. This set-up looks good to my eye. But please factor-in my inexperience. It's an interesting one because it was already naturally retracing from a nice run 16 January to 5 February, when on 21...