SPYvsGME

SPYvsGME

I started following the USDJPY pair when Japan announced a surprise rate increase on Dec 20th. I had only seen the market react like that to US rate hikes. Yields went up while equities and the dollar went down. Since then, the USDJPY started clawing back higher over the last 2 months with a strong up thrust on Friday. A strong DXY indicates to me that the...

SPYvsGME

I'm going to be clearing out some of my half baked ideas. I don't have a lot of time to write full ideas about them so enjoy the charts and feel free to ask any questions about them if you have any. I'm going to integrate my TV charts into the website with a daily, weekly, monthly analysis. website is in my TV profile or find me on twitter. ----- The Fed...

SPYvsGME

When I tell my son how much National Debt his generation will inherit. I have to tell him 31.5 Trillion so far.

SPYvsGME

I apologize for not posting much lately. Work is getting busy and I'm busy most nights creating The Grid. I'm going to make my indictors available as soon as I figure out how to only make them available for Grid members. In the meantime, I wanted to bring up something that caught my eye last week. I couldn't understand why many furu were buying puts and...

SPYvsGME

I have done a lot of crash game theory on trading view in the past. It's one of my passions about technical analysis. Here are my working theories for structure and H&S retracement prior to 2021 QE. -------- My first was the Power of 3, I don't know a single analyst that didn't predict something similar for 2022. OCT 2021 Here I started my website and...

SPYvsGME Updated 

The bulls and bears in the stock market are like two siblings always fighting over who's right. The bulls are the optimists, always saying "the market is going up! Buy, buy, buy!" while the bears are the pessimists, growling "the market is going down! Sell, sell, sell!" It's like a never-ending game of "he said, she said". But in all seriousness, these two...

SPYvsGME

As Flynn gazed at the sleek, glowing stock market terminal in front of him, his mind was filled with a sense of wonder and excitement. This was a far cry from the dusty, clunky machines of his arcade, but it was every bit as mesmerizing. The terminals seemed to pulse with energy as they displayed a constant stream of data and financial information, providing...

SPYvsGME Updated 

TLT is the most interesting instrument for me to analyze. That's what has me concerned about the upcoming CPI. You know when you are flying a plane and the instruments all start flashing and making noises. That's what is happening the past week in equities, bonds and FX. Trends are THE most important factor in a traders arsenal. TLT trend follows liquidity....

SPYvsGME Updated 

JHQTX and OPEX Window of Weakness 1. Vanna and Charm Flows gain strength 2. VIX Print for the month 3. Window of Weakness Options and Vol are entering in a very fragile time when flows can be at their technical weakest. When social media start speaking about goldilocks (economy goes not to hot, not to cold). That could be this months OPEX (Options Expiry). A...

SPYvsGME Updated 

Do you want to know what it is? *nod* The Flow is everywhere. It is all around us Even now in this very post You can see it when you look in your account Or when you turn on your Favorite stream You can feel it when you trade When you go to the casino When you pay your taxes It is the wool that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the...

SPYvsGME

Make volatility great again campaign is growing in popularity. The battle ground is the 4k inversion point for the SLR / ON RRP Bull Traps, Bear Traps. So far 2023 is shaping up to be the year an unmovable object meets an unstoppable force. Check back on FEB 1. When Jerome Powell is being asked to film a follow up to his last hit performance.

SPYvsGME Updated 

It's not Deja Vu that brings us back here. It certainly feels like Ground Hog day in the markets every time Jerome Powell speaks. All the Trend Lines and Moving Averages Converge for the next FOMC meeting. Bond Bears are calling this latest move in markets as a mistake to price in 2 rate cuts in 2023. The game has changed in the past year. In fact, It's...

SPYvsGME

This is an update to a chart I posted last September Trading View updated the scale for ON RR so I'm reposting the idea so we can watch the rise/fall in playback. Wall Street banks are now drinking the market liquidity cool-aid. I wonder which one will be the first to implode this time. 2006-08 was a time of idiots without Money 2020-22 will be the time of...

SPYvsGME Updated 

An inverse Head & Shoulders has confirmed the neckline with a price target of 127 by the end of June. Last Jan I posted this recession projection for TLT And then I projected the spike in yields on the 10Yr right before the Aug Rug Pull from Jerome Powell. Finally catching the double bottom reversal at the bottom at the lows of 91.85 Bond bears are...

SPYvsGME Updated 

Quick follow up to my 1-3 month analysis found here. My vol premium selling thesis from that analysis has footprints in the SPX options chain. This can be seen in the JAN20 SPX expiry 4000 strike. The amount of puts and calls could theoretically cancel each other out but over 300k options on the strike. I expect to stay in the ranges I outlined at least...

SPYvsGME Updated 

The markets have been predictable this year. Cem Karsan predicted a shift to leptokurtic distributions ( The heaviness of a distribution's tails relative to a normal distribution). I believe his prediction is based on Gamma\Vanna Exposure. Low liquidity (Negative Gamma Exposure / Thin Order Book) causes volatility. Volatility is mean reverting. The markets...

SPYvsGME Updated 

I decided to see what all the fuss about prop trading firms were. I never really got caught up in the crypto craze. I bought a few meme coins and had some fun learning to trade with 5x margin. But it wasn't good enough. I wanted to experience what the real money traders were gaming. Futures! Instead of losing tens of thousands in real money, I decided to...

SPYvsGME

The most likely outcome for JHEQX this quarter is outlined in A|B|C outcomes below. A) 4065 - The market has been bearish for an entire year, this trend would break the 200MA / 1yr 2 dev trend line. B) 3630 - Sideways and Down would need to move JHEQX below the roll strike early. After this months OPEX and before JHQDX expires in Jan31 C) 3060 - Cem...