JohnBaron

JohnBaron Updated 

WTI has moved into a bear market. Following support levels and patterns from last year, I anticipate another 4-5% decline in USDWTI until next August 16th. The contract rollover will serve to stimulate some buying. After two weeks of bearish 'EIA' reports, I anticipate 'EIA' next week will be bullish relative to market expectations and that will stimulate a...

JohnBaron

Vertical lines represent EIA report dates. August date was selected for approximation of low date. A projection is extended from 2016 moving average

JohnBaron

Multiple layers of channels are shown, multiple wedges, hinged around EIA reports - other major unanticipated supply disruption or macro-economic news, such as Brexit, clearly would throw spanners into the works. A few patterns to note. 1. Channels - regression a. Major upward from February b. Sub-Major sideways - call it May c. Minor Near term channel from...

JohnBaron

Coming off the API report, the next move will be triggered by the EIA. Support and Resistance levels shown along with channel.

JohnBaron

A plan that incorporates Brexit Extend gains on positive EIA report to 52.4 Brexit Remain vote push to 56 Brexit Leave vote drop to 47 1st week of July, assuming summer season draw downs are over, start to see oil decline through to mid August. September, anticipate a rate hike. Price begins to rise slowly though december

JohnBaron

If there are no large surprise events (more dramatic supply disruptions), then the next hard resistance is 50.93 and the price may break the wedge or move forward. The Fed decision on USD is the next big event and not likely to have any impact on the movement in the wedge. The Brexit vote is the next big event on June 23. That will either accelerate the movement...

JohnBaron

Mirror reflection updated showing two potential paths - one a correction before a new high, the other a new high then a correction back to 43, then 37-38, then a gradual climb back up beyond 50

JohnBaron

This is a reflection of the downward trend over time - the uptrend is running ahead of the rate of it's downward movement in the past.