Goose96

Goose96

It looks like the pair will complete an A-B-C corrective pattern which could allow the rand to pull the pair onto the blue 50% Fibo rate of 18.22. The navy-blue channel has been broken and the bottom end of the channel now serves as a neckline resistance. This neckline also coincides satisfyingly with the 50-day MA. The failed break above the 50-day MA as well...

Goose96

The DXY is still dancing with its 50-day MA and Friday’s soft PCE price index results saw the dollar give back some of its gains from earlier the week. The 50-day MA, at 103.780, held support while the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 103.320 capped the dollar’s gains. The dollar’s direction will be dictated by the FOMC results and Friday’s non-farm payrolls...

Goose96

The rand closed the week roughly 7 cents weaker against the dollar after sliding to a high of 19.04 against the dollar on Friday. The rand was boosted by the risk-on investor sentiment at the back end of the week which allowed the rand to keep the pair below the imperative 50-day MA rate of 18.82. The pair is however forming an upward channel which could allow...

Goose96 Updated 

Back in January I predicted that the USDZAR pair will climb to the 2020 high of 19.35 if the rand fails to hold the pair below the critical support rate of 16.80. We’ve seen this move play out, and then some, which saw the rand slide to an all-time low of 19.90 this week as the pair completed its 5th major impulse wave. Now it’s time to look at what lies ahead for...

Goose96 Updated 

The rand has now posted convincing gains in the past three sessions off the back of an increase in global investor risk appetite following a strong US NFP’s print on Friday and the conclusion of the US debt ceiling debacle. An ABC corrective pattern seems to be the most likely move for the pair at the moment as per my previous idea linked below. The rand has...

Goose96

When in doubt zoom out is a common statement in the Bitcoin community. So, let's do so by looking at the weekly timeframe. Bitcoin formed a strong base between the blue 50% Fibonacci level at $16,350 and the 2017 high of $18,000 in the 1H203 and has gone on to touch a yearly high of $31,295. The resistance rate between the black 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level...

Goose96

After failing to climb back above the 50-day MA rate of $27,750, Bitcoin has now broken below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement which coincides with the long-term 200-week MA support at $26,440. The next support rate sits at $25,350 and a break below this level will see Bitcoin slide onto the 200-day MA rate of $23,250. It seems the correlation between Bitcoin and...

Goose96

Similar to my SPX idea, the NDX seems to be forming a 5-wave impulse off the back of the AI enthusiasm. I expect a bullish pullback to pull the index lower towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $14,000 which will flip from a resistance to a support. A break below $14,000 will allow the index to slide into the support range between $13,500 and $13,700. A...

Goose96

The 2Q2023 was a strong one for the SPX with index gaining roughly 6% in the quarter and it has started the 3Q2023 on the front foot which allowed the index break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $4,260. The strong start to 3Q2023 is off the back of a strong NFP’s print and the end to the monthslong political battle in Washington. President Biden...

Goose96

The DXY has completed a ABC corrective pattern after catching support on the black 61.8% Fibo retracement level of 101.824. The greenback now looks set to start another 5-wave impulse higher which could see the DXY climb higher and re-test the 50-week MA level of 105.737. The DXY is currently testing the first resistance rate, the green 23.6% Fibo retracement...

Goose96

The dollar rally in May allowed the DXY to break above the blue 61.8% Fibo rate of 103.915 and the dollar rally looks ready to take a breather after touching a high of 104.695. In terms of technical indictors, the daily MACD is rolling over and a sell signal seems imminent. The RSI is also turning after touching the overbought level at 80.00 which is supportive of...

Goose96 Updated 

Background (a quick look back): The rand's covid recovery, on the back of the Fed’s QE infinity policy and a strong commodities rally, ended in June 2021 after the rand managed to pull the pair to a low of 13.40. The rand got hit by a quick one-two in the middle of 2021 as the DXY found support around 90.00 and the local riots in July which saw the local unit...

Goose96

Support at 18.21, which coincides with 50-day MA and 61.8% Fibo is holding support. A failed break below 18.21 will allow the pair to retest the resistance range between 18.48 and 18.55. A break below 18.21 will however see the pair slide back between the support range between 18.00 and 18.10. For a more detailed analysis see the linked idea.

Goose96

It is guaranteed to be a volatile week given the stacked economic calendar. Tonight, the Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 25bps, and on Friday we have the always highly anticipated US non-farm payroll data. As per my previous idea, I got the timing wrong for my expected move to 18.55 but I’m still holding my buy orders in placed around the 18.21 level...

Goose96 Updated 

The pair is currently testing the top of the blue downward channel. A break above 18.40 will allow for a move higher north of 18.50 while a break below 18.21 will invalidate this move higher. I’m personally positioning myself for more rand weakness and a move north of 18.50 given the current risk-off back drop. My strategy is to place buy limit orders around the...

Goose96 Updated 

The support level of 18.01 held its ground last week and the rand has been on the backfoot so far this week. The pair climbed to a high of 18.33 (the support turned resistance on the 23.6% Fibo level) on Monday. Although the rand managed to pull the pair lower onto the 50% Fibo level at 18.11, I believe there is further losses on the cards for the rand as the week...

Goose96

Yesterday’s pullback was a bit deeper than expected following the US initial jobless claims result. The US jobless claims came in higher than expected and coupled with the lower-than-expected US CPI results from earlier this week, markets are betting on a Fed rate pause sooner than initially anticipated. My record of trying to predict the Fed has been poor so I’ll...

Goose96

The USDZAR pair completed an ABC corrective wave at the end of March after the higher-than-expected 50bps rate hike from the SARB allowed the rand to pull the pair into the support range between the 50%- and 38.2% Fibo retracement rates at 17.68 and 17.92, respectively. Since the start of April, the dollar (DXY) has found some support in the range between 101.36...