Finchcliffe

Finchcliffe

We've had a breakout of both support and descending dynamic trendline with no retest, which I'm expecting. I can't see us retesting the dynamic trendline so considering shorts on the LTF's when we return to the resistance (formerly support) line. Expecting Aussie strength and Pound weakness, we may go higher with the interest rate decision from the BoE this week...

Finchcliffe

We can see that USDCHF has followed a descending dynamic trendline and has now formed a triangle pattern. Most other Swiss crosses are near or at ATL's or ATH's except this one. We can see multiple rejections on the 4HR from my support line and we're nearing the squeeze point of the triangle, so if we break the descending line I'll be looking for a long...

Finchcliffe Updated 

This pair has been following a descending channel for months and even with positive data last week for the aussie and weaker performance for the swiss, the general direction was maintained. We've broken back below the mid point of my channel and we seem destined to ultimately be heading for the ATL where I expect a strong bounce. I generally look at correlation...

Finchcliffe

I think that retail traders in the main are expecting this pair to crash from 150, I have been, and it may well do (as per my related idea below)... Commentators and past experience suggests that the BoJ will intervene around 150 to 151.5 because they have to, due to the debt relationship with the USA, they're stuck between a rock and a hard place. We all know...

Finchcliffe

We can see this pair respecting the channel and I think it will continue. Getting ready for the transition to bullish momentum with USD running out of steam and the aussie picking up.

Finchcliffe Updated 

Price moved a lot higher to fill the overnight gap down. My idea yesterday became invalid but this gives me a better entry: Gap down suggests general direction and now the gap has been filled, supported by a pinbar on the 1hr I'm getting in short with a first TP at 156 (ultimately I think 154), but I think this could be the start of the reversal.

Finchcliffe Updated 

We saw some JPY strength last week and I think we could be starting to see reversal, however my confirmation of this will be below 93 support. Even though BoJ hasn't intervened yet, there was a lot of buying in the week which we saw against the USD, I still expect BoJ intervention soon. Nice pinbar rejection on the 4HR from my resistance block. Looking for a...

Finchcliffe Updated 

We saw gold gap up which I believe needs to be closed, with a drop down to support around 1834, but may go further. The Israel Palestine conflict caused the buying of gold, however as a non-yield bearing asset it's less attractive than USD, and a strong USD is bad for gold, so I think we may even see a fall back down to the bottom of the channel at 1800. If it...

Finchcliffe

EURJPY has been hanging around 157 - 157.5 range for some time, we saw a break below last week which quickly recovered, but we've broken back below now so I expect a stronger push back down to the low of last week (caused by JPY buying). With price action there was also a failure to make a new high, we saw a short pinbar on the 4HR before we broke back below my...

Finchcliffe Updated 

Not much to say here other than this pair is ranging, we're back on the descending channel centreline, with a familiar wobble. and with great recent NZD performance against weakening CAD due to oil prices I think we'll see a continuation of this bullish momentum up to the channel top.

Finchcliffe

As we can see GBPNZD has rejected support having broken through the long term ascending channel. According to my chart we've not retested the channel yet (obvs this isn't always the case, but I would have expected it as it was a long term bullish trend), so I'm thinking it will. As this is a retracement trade i'll be looking to TP before my resistance block just...

Finchcliffe

I think this is a good pair to short, with GBP struggling to get through resistance even with the dip in oil prices. I'm expecting a fall back to support around 1.638 as my target.

Finchcliffe

I'm expecting a continuation to the downside due to general GBP weakness. BOA held rates at 4.1%, so did BoE 5.25%, however it looks like the UK is more likely to have a deeper recession. I think the pound is generally over expended so seeing further correction. We've retraced 38% of the Fib and looking like a doji forming on the 8hr, if it does I'm looking to short.

Finchcliffe Updated 

I'm expecting USDJPY to carry on meandering towards the 150 mark, and it's at this level that we've previously seen BoJ step in to defend their currency, We saw the same in June / July 2022, and I think we'll see it again. BoJ has started hinting at a change to monetary policy for the first time in a long time, we saw a very small reaction in the past week to...

Finchcliffe Updated 

Fundamentals out of the Eurozone last week were not good, in particular the data coming out of France. NZD is looking strong against all crosses at the moment. From a technical perspective this cross has broken out of its channel to the downside, and now broken the ascending trendline on the weekly and looks to have retested it. All things suggest to me that...

Finchcliffe

We can see that EURCAD has been on a downtrend since the last week of August. With Oil prices rising I think the fundamentals for the Canadian Dollar continue to look good, the EURO on the other hand doesn't have much going for it. I have noted a break through support and looking for a short any time soon, there's minor support at 1.402 which will be my target,...

Finchcliffe Updated 

Gold underpins the Chinese Yuan, it's underpinning the BRICS movement full-stop. Chinese economy is on the move... Recently, despite USD strength, Gold has maintained a HL, and I now see a reverse H&S forming. I expect FOMC to pause this week, and often FOMC is not the best for USD. I believe Gold has been forming a bull flag (which I calculate has been broken...

Finchcliffe Updated 

Expecting the recent retracement to continue at least to 0.586 support, just crossing the mid point of my descending channel. Overall I'm still bearish on this pair (just), I am expecting the reversal at some point soon, either from here, or around the ATL marked on the chart. I see AUD gaining in strength as China wakes up. There's a big interest rate decision...