Junk bonds are typically just that - junk. But, the iShares High Yield Corporate has been one of those crowded trades that just do not die. After witnessing the immaculate short squeeze from 1,864, the SPX staged an impressive rebound. But as I mentioned earlier today (on my InvestFeed - link below), the SPY is looking weak, and the ADX, which measures trend...
Running Alpha Capital Markets observes that higher rates are not always a headwind, as the not too distant record shows that the electric utilities group can outperform and offer a margin of safety. During the last period of higher rates, from mid 2004 to mid-2006, the FOMC hiked rates 16 times, and despite these incremental actions, electric utilities actually...
The 10-Year Treasury Note Yield is on the verge of breakdown due to the recent downtrend in oil and consequent lowered inflation expectations. Despite the anticipated FED rate hike, the Yield can actually go in opposite direction (the famous puzzle outlined by Greenspan, the former FED chairman) The breakdown in the Yield will be confirmed on quarterly basis, if...
The yield on the US TNote 10-Year remains in a long term downtrend channel, looking to complete it's down wave (3) of V towards 0.70%. A break above 2.20% would invalidate this trade and a break above 3.04% would invalidate the whole bearish pattern.
10-Year US Treasury yield remains in a long term downtrend channel, in the process of completing downwave (3) of V near the bottom of the channel at around 0.70%. Key resistance that if broken would invalidate this bearish scenario is the 3.04% level.
This is a similar chart to that published by Technician (see related idea below) that shows a clear divergence between stock markets and bond markets. I realize after making this chart that I had identified several bearish signals in bond markets at the start of the year, and I thought that we would thereby see a stock market correction in 2014. Stocks are the...
Despite the powerful rally over the last several weeks that brought the US equity markets back to their all-time highs, treasury yields are up only slightly and are well below mid-September levels. Meanwhile, as Gavekal Capital notes, speculators are still carrying a hefty short position in 10-year treasury futures and options contracts, implying that yields have...