After a disappointing labour market report last week, where a blowout nonfarm payrolls print was overshadowed by rather dismal details in the household survey, focus now turns to the February US CPI report, being the last significant piece of the data jigsaw before the March FOMC meeting.
Off the back of hotter than expected inflation figures in January, with...
In the equity space, one of the most notable features of this cycle has been the degree of consternation over narrow market breadth. In other words, the gains that we have seen, especially those that were made in 2023, came due to a substantial rally in a small number of index constituents – a group that we now all know as the ‘magnificent seven’.
There are,...
As gold goes about its business, client volumes on the yellow metal are well above average, and as is typically the way after a solid one-way tear, the net position is now heavily skewed short.
We can see that the price has closed higher for 7 straight days, and subsequently, traders see a heightened probability that we will not see an 8th and that momentum has...
Westy and Blake are back! Markets are frothy, gold and crypto are on the move and we break down the whats and whys, as always, in The Trade Off. Also: ECB, NFP, Silver, SPX, AUDCHF, DAX, Apple/QQQ & CHFJPY. Strap in, this is TTO!
After a quiet start to the week in markets, Friday’s US session saw risk come alive. A poor US ISM manufacturing at 47.8 – notable in the new orders and employment sub-components – was married with comments from Fed members Lorie Logan and Chris Waller, in turn promoting a strong rally in US Treasuries, with additional rate cuts being priced through 2024.
The...
Four years ago this weekend, the Fed delivered an emergency 50bp rate cut to support the US economy which was, at the time, being ravaged by the pandemic and associated ‘lockdown’ restrictions. Less than two weeks later, Powell & Co. – on a Sunday night, no less – slashed rates to near-zero, while also kickstarting a $700bln round of quantitative easing. Of...
Well, what a turnaround it’s been. Just 57 days ago, markets were flat-out ignoring what the FOMC were saying on the policy outlook, and pricing as many as six 25bp rate cuts over the course of the year ahead. Now, less than two months later, the swaps are in line with the dots, as we see money markets implying just 75bp of easing this year, with the first 25bp...
In a world where FX, gold and equity index volatility is subdued, the crypto scene is getting great attention.
Not because we’re seeing volatility per se – that is not statistically the case - where Bitcoin's daily close-to-close percentage changes are seldom greater than 4%. But because of the absolute momentum and trending price action. This is not just true of...
There seems little reason to be bearish on the greenback right now, particularly as markets continue to hawkisly reprice the policy outlook, and with the Fed’s March ‘dot plot’ again likely to point to just 75bp of cuts this year, around 15bp more than markets currently price, which should continue to see Treasuries sell-off, naturally led by the front-end of the...
Although the next move in rates for all G10 central banks, besides the BoJ, is almost certain to be a cut, likely marking the beginning of an easing cycle, there are set to be some notable divergences in the timing of such a cut, and the extent of policy normalisation that will subsequently be delivered. I use “normalisation”, incidentally, rather than...
A live-ish RBNZ meeting is on deck in the very early hours (UK time) of Wednesday morning.
While a handful of local banks, and 2 of the 21 economists in the Bloomberg survey, expect a 25bp hike, the majority see the OCR remaining unchanged at 5.5%. NZD OIS sees around a 3-in-10 chance of a hike at the February meeting, while pricing around 15bp of further...
As we prepare to go into battle in the new trading week, we look down at the calendar and see the highlights being US core PCE and EU inflation, RBNZ meeting, China PMIs, and numerous Fed speakers - we regroup, and consider the propensity for outsized movement, into and around each data release, as we do with our assessment of the trading environment through which...
The Nvidia effect has ripped through global equity markets and given fresh wind to markets that were looking ominously poised for a 3-5% drawdown. New highs have been seen in EU Stoxx, GER40, JPN225, and the US large-cap equity bourses; the US30, US500 and NAS100.
What levels do the bulls target now?
Well either, you’re looking at fibo...
The Trade Off is back! As always, Westy & Blake are talking macro themes (NVIDIA, Market, Fed policy & Commercial Real Estate), juicy setups (NAS100, Crude, EURUSD & AAPL) and trade ideas (NZDJPY & GBPNZD)
On the week we learnt that the UK and Japan are in a technical recession, although this meant little to markets and perhaps the bigger issue in Japan was the steady stream of pushback from key Japanese officials on recent JPY strength.
US retail sales fell 0.80% in Jan, a sinister turn when both US CPI and PPI were far hotter than expected, putting us on notice...
Whether trading equity, equity indices or even FX, Nvidia’s Q424 earnings (due after-market on 21 Feb) should be firmly on the risk radar. Markets could come alive with movement and traders may need to dynamically react.
How the Nvidia share price reacts immediately after its earnings results and CEO Jensen Huang’s guidance could have far-reaching implications -...
