Over the long run, the inherent bias towards owning Gold has remained a steady trend, largely driven by its historical store of value and status as a hedge against economic uncertainty. However, the near-term outlook for Gold appears to be facing a series of headwinds, primarily due to recent developments in the financial landscape.
In a shift from its previous...
The January soybean contract closed Monday’s session rallying for the fifth day in a row - closing at the exact 61.8% retracement of the August 28th high and October 12th low. Can the contract continue to build on its recent strength? Or will this week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Expectations (WASDE) report cut the rally short.
The Bullish Case :...
The recent rally of the 2-year Treasury has unfolded following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's shift toward a slightly dovish stance in the latest policy meeting. Powell's rhetoric emphasized the importance of proceeding cautiously with the path of interest rates, prompting a surge in demand and short covering in the bond market.
Against this backdrop, the...
In the price action of palladium futures, recent development has been the emergence of an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
This technical formation, characterized by a temporary dip followed by a rise and then another dip, has garnered the attention of traders and investors, who are closely monitoring the implications for future price movements.
The...
As geopolitical risks continue to cast a shadow over both equities and commodities, it is essential to recognize the crucial roles commodities play during times of conflict and the potential implications of any escalation on specific commodities.
Aluminum, valued for its malleability, corrosion resistance, and capacity to be intricately machined, finds...
As we embrace the holiday season, it's impossible to overlook a profound cultural shift that has rapidly evolved in recent years, which may be the unexpected gift the stock market has been yearning for. Recollections of the 90s holiday season, filled with mall trips and family outings, feel like distant memories in today's consumer landscape. The days of mall...
The December Crude oil contract has endured a precipitous drop in the past three trading sessions - falling nearly $7 per barrel. Is this just a correction? Are we in the midst of a trend change?
The Bullish Case:
Crude gapped higher on Monday, October 9th, following the start of the conflict between Hammas and Israel, and the geopolitical risk surrounding...
The November soybean contract tested 1300 per bushel on Tuesday, trading all the way up to 1303 ½, before ultimately settling at 1296 ¾. The question is now - where do we go from here?
Psychologically Significant Resistance
Failing to close above 1300 means we failed to close above a psychologically significant resistance level at 1300. Moreover, we’ve...
Retail sales surge higher than expected on October 17th, Industrial Production comes in higher than expected, and Atlanta Fed GDP Now for Q3 was revised higher from 5.1% to 5.3%. With the economy and the consumer remaining resilient, is the 10 year primed to break out to new 52 week highs? Rates will continue to be dependent on economic data, and further...
Small caps have been under pressure this year relative to larger market cap weighted benchmarks. Higher interest rates will remain a headwind for the Russell 2000, and to see more upside, we will need to see interest rate yields come off of their highs.
As of late, we have seen some relief on the longer end of the treasury yield curve, which has provided some...
December Live Cattle has been in a virtual free-fall since making contract highs back on September 19th. We’ve sold off nearly $7 since scoring the new high. To say it’s been a remarkable year for live cattle futures would be an understatement - we’ve made all time highs, and bucked bearish seasonal tendencies along the way. The strength observed across the...
Treasuries have continued to sell off as the Treasury market reprices both interest rate and inflation expectations. Recently, the yield curve has begun to steepen further, and the 2s – 10s inversion has gradually decreased. The longer end of the Treasury market has experienced a significant increase in supply due to Congress's spending increases and liquidation...
After being subjected to selling pressure for the majority of the week, the November feeder cattle contract found support at the 23.6% retracement level between the contract’s low, and the contract’s high. The low for the day was only a few ticks off of the actual 253.825 level, coming in at 254.050.
There’s no question about it - feeder cattle futures have...
Interest rates continue to put pressure on risk assets and stocks are sharply off of this year’s highs. While seasonality and high valuations may play a role in this sell off, stocks will continue to trade on inflation and interest rate expectations determined by economic data, and the feds interpretation of said data. Next week’s jobs numbers will be very...
Last week, we were looking for a potential bottom in corn. Since then, we’ve mostly traded sideways to slightly higher. However, the end of this week brings a “triple-witching” event - the end of the month, the end of the fiscal quarter, and the quarterly grain stocks report all occur on Friday. In last quarter’s grain stocks report, the market sold off fairly...
Silver has been caught in a technical wedge since the all-time highs of April 2011 and the lows of March 2020. Price action in the year of 2023 has started to coil up tightly as prices battle the bottom and topside of the wedge ranges. Moving forward, real interest rate yields, and a slowing Chinese economy will remain major headwinds to silver and the precious...
After scoring a new contract low early in Tuesday’s trade, December corn futures managed to stage a late-session rally to close in positive territory. Moreover, the contract managed to close above trendline resistance that’s been in place dating back to June 20th.
Price action on Wednesday served as a continuation of the late-session strength, with the contract...
